Fabrizio Scarpa

WTI climbing like a Tomahawk missile:

Right now govt is making up an obviously false “saving” to justify its imm, while ignoring the obviously true cost of that policy (treasury projections assume a level of net migration Home Sec opposes and which is unlikely to happen). And these ppl wonder why trust in politics is declining.

The Most Chilling Detail in the U.S. Attack on an Iranian Naval Ship The Iranian warship was taking part in an international exercise with many other countries—including the United States.

This is a chilling crime. A shame on our country. The Iranian ship was unarmed. The US knew this. The sailors were murdered by our navy, and the survivors were left to die at sea.
newrepublic.com/post/207429/...

Estimated lifetime net fiscal costs for care workers and their adult dependants

Document - which gets to £9.5 bn LIFETIME, then rounds it up to £10 billion - does not pretend it is trying to compare government policy to delay with not delaying.

Home Secretary's speech, "if not, we will see a £10 billion drain on public finances" pretends it did

www.gov.uk/government/p...

A Company Plans 4,000 Orbiting 'Sky Mirrors' to Shine Sunlight on Earth After Dark, Worrying Astronomers A startup wants to light up the night sky using giant mirrors in space. The idea could extend daylight for solar farms and nighttime operations.

There's been so much going on that I missed this story. WTF are we doing? @banditelli.org

This is misleading because it compares to the opening surge, not Iran’s total capability. Early barrages are usually the peak; declines reflect expended salvos, dispersal, pause, etc not necessarily destroyed stockpiles or production capacity. It measures tempo, not long-term military capability

Dear Shabana, I notice today that you referred to me in your speech on immigration at the IPPR think tank. You said: “A party leader should not be on the beaches of France encouraging people to make a perilous crossing on small boats.” I suppose I shouldn’t be surprised especially after the hateful Labour campaign in Gorton and Denton, but this is just the latest in a string of lies peddled by a discredited Government who intentionally fan the flames of racism and division. When I went to Calais, I was not there to encourage people to travel to the UK. I was there to see at first hand the suffering your Government and successive Governments have done in demonising migrants in a pathetic bid to pander to the base instincts of Reform and the flawed strategy of Morgan McSweeney. As you will know, if you even bothered to research my visit instead of taking Reform talking points, I was there to witness the brutality of families living in tents in freezing temperatures. I filled water tanks and picked up litter. What that visit did do is confirm my belief that if we are to smash the boat gangs and stop the boats, we need to offer safer and managed routes for migrants to come to this country. Showing compassion as a politician is not a crime. In fact, we need to see much more of it. It reminded me of a young MP who in October 2015 spent three days in Lesbos helping migrants fleeing war-torn Syria. She posted videos on X, talked about handing out water and croissants to refugees and food parcels. When she returned to the UK, she wrote a very moving piece in the New Statesman. She said “we have to work with our European partners and create new, safe, and legal routes for refugees to get to Europe. We cannot abandon them to their fate, left as prey for smugglers whilst risking death on the seas.” She said “maybe we can make ourselves feel better by saying no-one is making them get on the boats. And again, the Home Secretary is not entirely wrong when …

Dear Shabana,

Let's clear some things up around migration and remember we're talking about people's lives.

This is a life and death story for the UK – so why is it being brushed under the carpet? The news that healthy life expectancy is in decline in Britain exposes a serious truth about the state we’re in, says Guardian columnist Aditya Chakrabortty

Epochal toll on our life expectancy and quality of existence as a nation by the austerity and inequality enforced since now 2011.
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

If anyone is friends with any Georgian air traffic controllers, buy them a nice bottle of wine. As guardians of pretty much the only narrow gap still available between Europe and Asia that avoids both Iran, the Gulf, Ukraine and Russia, they are under some substantial pressure.

We paid an ex-Tory MP to lobby for our fake Chinese firm - and authorities did nothing Investigation finds no rules were broken. It just goes to show how few rules there are.

Last week, UK lobbying regulator closed investigation into ex Tory MP Ben Howlett

We offered Howlett money to work for a fake Chinese investor. He introduced us to a dozen Labour MPs

Regulator didn't even speak to us. Our system is broken

New, by me: democracyforsale.substack.com/p/we-paid-an...

My Ukrainian grandparents would recount stories, some quite funny, about surviving bombing among refugees and slave workers. My Austrian grandmother on the other side would recount tales of surviving strafing under trains.

Many US analysts grew up listening to tales of surviving as aircrew.

Incredibly telling Kemi Badenoch interview on Today:
- can’t say what she’d actually want UK forces to do
- no idea what objective her proposed military action is to achieve
- hides from reality that single biggest constraint on British military = her govt’s defence cuts

“Have you even said please?”

I am totally pumped about this new work . "Task-trained RNNs" are a powerful and influential framework in neuroscience, but have lacked a firm theoretical footing. This work provides one, and makes direct contact with the classical theory of random RNNs:
www.biorxiv.org/content/10.6...

Meanwhile the 2024 Labour govt was first govt of either party in history whose electorate was majority pro-immigration in broad terms. Reforms like this just don't make political sense. Obviously policy doesn't have to be popular, but Mahmood claims there is an electoral case for this. There isn't!

As usual, the deaf tone replies from the Home Office are something to behold.

British Academy response to the Department for Education's technical consultation on the Interational Student Levy 18 February 2026 Background The Department for Education is consulting on the proposed levy on international student income, due to be introduced in England in August 2028.

‘We remain deeply concerned that universities will be unable to absorb the cost of the levy’s
introduction. The loss of cross-subsidy for domestic teaching & research will harm
universities’ ability to deliver their core functions’
Our response to the levy
www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/documents/60...

Incredible stories from the Cold War
Do not miss this.

South West Water admits criminal offence over Devon parasite outbreak Firm admits supplying water unfit for human consumption after nearly 150 people fell ill

This was horrible for my south Devon neighbours - should never have happened. Will shareholders cover the fine, & CEO bonuses be recouped & totally reined in for the future? Profiteering from basic life-support utilities is incomprehensible to ordinary mortals. www.theguardian.com/business/202...

The problem is a number of UK politicians are bypassing the tabloids and going direct to source to also aim for a US audience for social media engagement

IRGC Destroys Second US THAAD System in Gulf, Wipes Out UAE Radar and $1.1 Billion Qatar Early Warning Shield — Iran Declares Missile Dominance - Defence Security Asia IRGC precision strikes reportedly destroy a second US THAAD system, its UAE radar, and Qatar’s $1.1 billion early warning system, exposing fractures in America’s Gulf missile defence architecture and ...

so Iran has apparently knocked out and destroyed / disabled to some extent two U.S. THAAD batteries

This is a massive deal. Aside from the expense, this is not a weapon system we just have a ton of lying around. You don't replace these easily.

defencesecurityasia.com/en/irgc-dest...

the Dubai dickheads remind me of how Ballard portrayed the western enclaves in Shanghai in Empire of the Sun

Including what becomes of 400 kilos of high enriched uranium

Let’s hope there’s some folks on the ground ensuring that’s taken care of

A sepia toned, seated portrait of mathematician Georg Cantor in his early twenties. His wavy hair is swept back and he has a curly beard and thin mustache. Cantor wears a dark jacket and white shirt, with a tie in a bow at this neck.

Mathematician Georg Cantor was born #OTD in 1845. He is the founder of set theory and developed the concepts of cardinal and transfinite numbers.

These shocking results led his former professor Kronecker to call him a "corrupter of youth."

Image: Oberwolfach Photo Collection

I have seen a lot of cursed stuff in my time in academia but this is among the *most* cursed.
Grammarly is generating miniature LLMs based on academic work so that users can have their writing ‘reviewed’ by experts like David Abulafia, who died less than two months ago.

Wonderful slip by Rachel Reeves in her statement to the Commons.

The ‘changes we promised’ morphed into the ‘promises we changed’.

Yes, not terribly relevant that six million of people don't self identify that way.

Amen

The toughest transport system on Earth would have Lebanese pilots and Ukrainian railways

Not with a REF/Con/Lab government.