Víctor Aguilar

A World Without Illusions | Celso Amorim Lula's Chief Advisor discusses the assault on Iran, the concept of multipolarity, and how Brazil can defend its sovereignty in an age of imperial conflict.

"This is a world without illusions".

Great interview with Celso Amorim 🔽

www.phenomenalworld.org/interviews/a...

Special Episode: Regime Change or Regional War? U.S. and Israel Kill Iran’s Supreme Leader Podcast Episode · Hold Your Fire! · March 1 · 43m

"Bombings from the air do not manufacture organised political alternatives".

@alivaez.bsky.social on what's next for Iran.

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/s...

Hunger in Havana: Can the U.S. Cutoff Bring Change to Cuba? | International Crisis Group Cuba is facing its biggest humanitarian crisis and the greatest threat to its political status quo in decades, after the U.S. clamped down on its energy supply. In this Q&A, Crisis Group explains the ...

Cuba is facing its biggest humanitarian crisis and the greatest threat to its political status quo in decades, after the U.S. clamped down on its energy supply.

In this Q&A, @crisisgroup.org explains the causes of the island’s predicament and offers ways of easing it 🔽

Hunger in Havana: Can the U.S. Cutoff Bring Change to Cuba? | International Crisis Group Cuba is facing its biggest humanitarian crisis and the greatest threat to its political status quo in decades, after the U.S. clamped down on its energy supply. In this Q&A, Crisis Group explains the ...

NEW Q&A | Can the U.S. Cutoff Bring Change to Cuba?

Cuba is facing its biggest humanitarian crisis and the greatest threat to its political status quo in decades. In this Q&A, we explain the causes of the island’s predicament and offer ways of easing it.

www.crisisgroup.org/qna/latin-am...

10 conflictos para tener en la mira en 2026 | International Crisis Group El mundo se precipitaba hacia una nueva y peligrosa era mucho antes del regreso de Donald Trump a la Casa Blanca. En lo que va de su segundo mandato, la situación en general ha empeorado.

10 conflictos para tener en la mira en 2026
Afganistán-Pakistán

"Es probable que Islamabad vuelva a arremeter si atribuye otro ataque a Afganistán. El régimen talibán está en clara desventaja militar, pero sus represalias aún podrían ser letales."

Conflictividad perpetua: una ruta hacia la estabilidad en el Perú | International Crisis Group Ningún país de América Latina sufre mayores índices de insatisfacción con la democracia y las instituciones gubernamentales que el Perú. Si no hay avances para frenar la polarización política y la dis...

Perú tendrá su 8° presidente/a en 10 años.

Esto escribió mi colega @glaeldys.bsky.social hace dos años:

"Medidas para moderar el conflicto político y garantizar que la ciudadanía se sienta adecuadamente representada por las instituciones estatales son vitales para lograr la estabilidad en Perú".

📌 Coming soon | New @crisisgroup.org briefing 🔽

Kids on the Front Lines: Stopping Child Recruitment in Colombia

February 2026

La fragmentación del conflicto armado en Colombia desde el acuerdo de paz de 2016 ha hecho que la autoprotección sea más difícil para las personas LGBTQI+.

Acompáñanos el 18 de febrero en el evento en línea "Conflicto y personas LGBTQI+ en Colombia"🔽
www.crisisgroup.org/node/27145

📌 Próximamente | Nuevo informe de @crisisgroup.org 🔽

Menores en el frente de batalla. Detener el reclutamiento infantil en #Colombia

Febrero de 2026

Periodistas: el jueves 12 de febrero @crisisgroup.org publicará el informe: “Menores en el frente de batalla. Detener el reclutamiento infantil en Colombia”.

Pueden contactar a vaguilar@crisisgroup.org o enviar un MD para acceder al informe bajo embargo o solicitar entrevistas.

Journalists: On Thursday, 12 February, @crisisgroup.org will publish the briefing: ‘Kids on the Front Lines: Stopping Child Recruitment in Colombia’.

Reach us at vaguilar@crisisgroup.org or send a DM to access the embargoed report or request interviews.

Como dirían los jóvenes, Mark Carney está "tirando factos" en Davos.

Los ocho libros de la semana

Los ocho libros de la semana dozz.es/1avdn4

Miles de personas protestan en Dinamarca contra la amenaza de Trump de anexionarse Groenlandia

Miles de personas protestan en Dinamarca contra la amenaza de Trump de anexionarse Groenlandia dozz.es/f_79a13

Trump and the Dangers of Spheres of Influence "Attempting to reorganize the world around spheres of influence is a recipe for disaster. Trump’s Venezuela intervention has brought us a big step closer," write Comfort Ero and Richard Atwood

While Venezuelans live with a deeply uncertain future, the seizure of Maduro caps a year of Trump demonstrating ever more brazenly his belief that Washington must have free rein in the Western Hemisphere.
~ @latam.crisisgroup.org @crisisgroup.org

time.com/7344540/trum...

Trump and the Dangers of Spheres of Influence "Attempting to reorganize the world around spheres of influence is a recipe for disaster. Trump’s Venezuela intervention has brought us a big step closer," write Comfort Ero and Richard Atwood

NEW OP-ED | Trump and the Dangers of Spheres of Influence

The seizure of Maduro caps a year of Trump demonstrating ever more brazenly that Washington must have free rein in the Western Hemisphere. @comfortero.crisisgroup.org and Richard Atwood explain the dangers in TIME.

time.com/7344540/trum...

How the World Sees the U.S. Raid in Venezuela | International Crisis Group The U.S operation grabbing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro caused disquiet in many capitals around the globe, not least due to subsequent talk of seizing Greenland. But several governments have te...

Over the last week I have been working with @crisisgroup.org colleagues to assess the global response to the U.S. raid on Venezuela. You can read our region-by-region summary here 👇
www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...

‘Everything is silent’: Caracas on edge in aftermath of US blitz Some suspected the attacks on Venezuela were coming, but the shock was still real and no one knows what will happen next

🇻🇪 “From what I’m seeing so far…this was an operation to remove Maduro from power – but it’s not regime change. The regime remains in power.”

@philgunson.bsky.social speaks to @theguardian.com on today’s unfolding events in Venezuela.

www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...

The U.S. Just Toppled Nicolás Maduro. Here Are the Major Risks Timely, expert analysis from the International Crisis Group's Elizabeth Dickinson

After the blitz US military operation to capture #Venezuela's Maduro, I spoke with @markleongoldberg.bsky.social about the myriad risks ahead.

The coming hours could be definitive in shaping a transition, or regime consolidation 👇

www.globaldispatches.org/p/the-us-jus...

I spoke with @cnn.com on our initial read on the situation in #Venezuela after US strikes this morning.

Bottom line is a question: What is the plan now for the day after?

Significant concern in the region, including about the potential for destabilization or humanitarian fallout

Detenido un fotoperiodista salvadoreño en Sevilla por una orden internacional emitida por Bukele El Gobierno centroamericano persigue al informador, que estaba pendiente de pedir asilo en España, e instó a Interpol a detenerlo

🇸🇻 Detenido un fotoperiodista salvadoreño en Sevilla por una orden internacional emitida por Bukele

El Gobierno centroamericano persigue al informador, que estaba pendiente de pedir asilo en España

🔴@crisisgroup.org’s 10 Conflicts to Watch in 2026 is out.

From the battlefields of Ukraine & Sudan, to the crisis in Venezuela, to the tentative ceasefire in Gaza, we lay out the global hotspots to pay attention to this coming year with @foreignpolicy.com ⬇️ 1/3

www.crisisgroup.org/global/10-co...

10 Conflicts to Watch in 2026 Major wars, simmering hostilities, and accelerating instability from Washington.

2025 was a bloody year. 2026 promises little better.

Here are the 10 conflicts to watch this year, co-published with @crisisgroup.org: foreignpolicy.com/2025/12/31/1...

NEW COMMENTARY | @crisisgroup.org’s 10 Conflicts to Watch in 2026

2025 was a bloody affair. 2026 promises little better. @comfortero.crisisgroup.org and Richard Atwood unpack the challenges that lie ahead this year. ⬇️

www.crisisgroup.org/global/10-co...

10 Conflicts to Watch in 2026 Every January in Foreign Policy, the International Crisis Group lists 10 conflicts to watch in the year ahead. The conflict in Ukraine rages on and civil war in Sudan devastates millions, but what oth...

🗓️ Save the date for 7 January.

Beyond Ukraine and Sudan, which crises could erupt in 2026 and how can they be prevented?

Join @foreignpolicy.com’s live conversation with our President & CEO, @comfortero.crisisgroup.org.

foreignpolicy.com/live/10-conf...

Puedes ver y escuchar nuestro podcast en YouTube → youtu.be/TkaxFhvjUJY

🗳️ En 2025, #AmLat cerró un ciclo electoral marcado por el voto castigo, la fragmentación política y democracias bajo presión.

📉 La ciudadanía castigó a #izquierda y #derecha: #Chile 🇨🇱, #Ecuador 🇪🇨, #Bolivia 🇧🇴 y #Honduras 🇭🇳

✍️ Un análisis para #Latinoamérica21

➡️ latinoamerica21.com/es/america-l...

Capítulo 13: Exagerar para convencer | Análisis Desde su entrada en política, Trump ha sabido que, para poner en práctica medidas poco convencionales, es importante radicalizar el debate popular con propuestas y declaraciones que causen asombro

Análisis | Desde su entrada en política, Trump ha sabido que es importante radicalizar el debate popular con propuestas y declaraciones que causen asombro. Por Antoni Gutiérrez-Rubí

El mundo en 2026 Repasamos 2025 y nos fijamos en el año que viene: el reajuste del tablero geopolítico, el futuro de Gaza y la evolución de las guerras

🌍 ¿Cómo será el mundo en 2026?

En el último podcast del año con @cidobbarcelona.bsky.social, hablamos con @polmorillas.bsky.social, @ccolomina.bsky.social, Moussa Bourekba, @inesaescriche.bsky.social y @agusmoralespuga.bsky.social nos trae las 5 noticias olvidadas de 2025