Will Weaver ⛈️

Temperatures in Virginia and North Carolina at 11am this morning. Most of central and western Virginia is in the upper 60s to around 70, with Roanoke and Danville actually up to 76 degrees. However, there are much colder temperatures less than 30 miles east of Richmond due to a backdoor cold front and strong onshore flow from the Atlantic, where sea surface temperatures are still bitterly cold (in the low to mid 40s). As a result, temperatures are in the low 40s in Virginia Beach and in the upper 30s on the Eastern Shore.

There is a backdoor cold front moving westward over eastern VA, and the temperature difference is quite obvious. Temperatures are pushing 70 in #RVA, but are in the upper 30s to low 40s on the Eastern Shore and South Hampton Roads. #vawx

WPAC Tropical Weather Outlook - 3/6/26 Invest 95W could become a short-lived tropical cyclone and bring some heavy rainfall to Guam and the Marianas during the next few days.

WPAC Tropical Weather Outlook - 3/6/26: Invest #95W could become a short-lived tropical cyclone and bring some heavy rainfall to #Guam and the #Marianas during the next few days. willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/wpac-tropi...

First of all, Bluesky thinks you replied to me in German for some reason.

It's moderate pretty much everywhere due to particulates from wildfire smoke filtering in from the plains, but DC is actually on the other side of the frontal boundary. It's in the 40s in parts of Maryland.

Just in case you didn't know just how sharp the temperature gradient is with the trough currently draped over the region - at 2:00pm, it was 80 degrees in #RVA. It was only 54 degrees in DC. #vawx

It's time for everyone's favorite fictional game show - "Where's That Frontal Boundary?"! #rva #vawx

As expected, WMO has retired Melissa from the Atlantic hurricane name lists. It will be replaced by Molly in 2031.

And when I say this is winter's last gasp, I mean it. High temps will rise into the upper 70s to low 80s by Thursday and stay that way through the middle of next week. Some of the long-range models suggest a brief cooldown, but confidence is low at that time frame. #rva #vawx

Most of the #RVA area is seeing rain, but some outlying areas (Louisa, Hanover, Goochland) are seeing some sleet mixing in. Mainly snow in the mountains and near DC.

This is likely winter's last gasp - all precip in all areas will likely change to rain late tonight. #vawx

You are batshit insane.

You'll be fine.

East of I-95, heavier snow and damaging winds are more likely as the low pressure area rapidly intensifies, and the entirety of the Delmarva Peninsula is under a blizzard warning as a result. Portions of the Delmarva could see sustained winds of over 50 mph on Sunday evening. Temperatures will rise into the 40s on Monday, so the snow will likely melt very quickly. This forecast has a lot of bust potential - if temperatures don't cool fast enough, much of central Virginia could see little or no snow. On the flip side, some of the mesoscale models develop what is known as a deformation band over portions of northern and central Virginia - an area of frontogenesis. These bands are associated with very heavy snow squalls, and if one does develop, there could be a band of much higher accumulations that likely will manage to stick to roads.

Final call for Sun/Mon's storm. Cent/E'rn VA will begin as rain before temps crash and precip changes over to heavy wet snow. Between I-81 and I-95, snowfall accums will likely occur on grassy surfaces, and probably won't stick to roads. See alt text for discussion. #rva #vawx

Parts of the Delmarva Peninsula are living the "0 to 72 inches of snow" meme.

The ACTUAL snow forecast range (10th to 90th percentile model amounts) for Salisbury, Maryland is 1" to 24".

This forecast is tricky because the GFS can't be trusted. If temps don't fall as quickly as it suggests, a lot of areas could see little or no snow.

Anything that falls will struggle to stick to roads, and it'll be in the mid-40s on Monday. Sorry kids, I think you're going to school. 2/2 #vawx #rva

First call snow forecast for Sunday 2/22 11am to Monday 2/23 4am. Outside of the mountains of Virginia and West Virginia, most areas will see 1-3 inches of snow, with higher amounts along the Chesapeake Bay and on the Delmarva Peninsula. Yes, I know what the map looks like. You're not 5 years old, stop it.

First call for Sunday/Monday's snow. It will be very warm today and tomorrow and precip will begin as rain east of I-81, except in the mountains. The low will intensify as it moves E, so areas to the E of #RVA will see the most snow...hence the oddly phallic looking map. 1/ #vawx

GFS MODEL is confused!

It hurt itself in its confusion!

This isn't going to happen. #rva #vawx

Can I have some of what the GFS is smoking?

The GFS has been one of the worst performing models this winter, and I doubt this happens. Rain will likely change to snow on Sunday evening but it'll be a very wet snow that will struggle to accumulate on paved surfaces. #rva #vawx

The #WPAC actually has a fair amount of convective activity. A weak low is near the #Philippines and will bring some heavy rain to Mindanao and the Visayas as we head toward the weekend. A disturbance much further east could become a short-lived TC before shear and dry air shut it down.

Although cold air will quickly funnel down into the region late Sun night as the low develops, it won't get here in time to make much of a difference. At this point, I'm fairly confident it'll be rain basically everywhere except the northern Eastern Shore. #rva #vawx 2/2

The models seem to be nearly unanimous on a storm developing just off the coast late this wknd into Monday.

Unfortunately for snow lovers, the odds are sharply against pretty much any of VA seeing snow or wintry precip as it will be warm as the moisture moves in. #rva #vawx 1/

Looking at the radar. Severe thunderstorms continue to slowly march across the Florida Panhandle. Still fairly confident they can get the whole #Daytona500 in before they arrive. #NASCAR

This is one of the most picturesque storm systems I've seen in this part of the country in February.

It's definitely a good thing @nascar.com moved the #Daytona500 up an hour because most of the models suggest the strong storms currently located over far western Florida and the Gulf won't reach the area until after 7pm. #NASCAR

Some weather influencers are raving about a storm system that will move through the area this weekend, insisting that it'll be a big snowstorm.

Although temps will be up and down the rest of the week, it will be too warm. Pretty much the whole region should see some much needed rain. #rva #vawx

Not really, no

I don't like where things are headed. Sudden, unexpected, heavy wet snow, a flash freeze tonight, and high winds tomorrow. Recipe for a major, major power outage problem. #vawx #rva

The GFS, ECMWF, NAM, and HRRR all showed a grand total of 0" for the area.

Richmond could have 3" by tonight.

A winter weather advisory has been issued for most of the #RVA area through 8pm. An unexpectedly heavy burst of snow is moving through and could result in 1-3" of snow, particularly north and west of the city. This snow is accumulating FAST so travel could be tricky. #vawx

It's insane that the GFS can completely nail the formation and evolution of Tropical Storm Penha (02W) in the Western Pacific, yet ROYALLY sucks when it comes to forecasting literally anything in the United States during the winter. #rva #vawx

Remnants of Penha (02W / Basyang) – Special Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8 (FINAL): 1800 UTC 6 February 2026 Penha degenerates into a trough of low pressure along the western coast of Negros. This is the last advisory...

Remnants of #Penha ( #02W / #BasyangPH) – Special Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8 (FINAL): 1800 UTC 6 February 2026: Penha degenerates into a trough of low pressure along the western coast of Negros. This is the last advisory... willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/remnants-o...

There is a small pocket of heavy snow showers headed for the #rva area, but the air mass over us is bone dry. I don't think much of this will actually get here or reach the ground if it does. #vawx