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John Horton

@johnjhorton

Economist researching online marketplaces. Mind and Hand. 🎲🦜- appreciator

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02.10.2023
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Latest posts by John Horton @johnjhorton

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#Wilmasreview
Wilma 🐢 recently got a little assistance with her grooming because she recently read a study showing that a little (text) brush-up can lead to more success when applying for a job.

In their study, @emmawiles.bsky.social, Zanele Munyikwa, and @johnjhorton.bsky.social test...
1/🧡

25.05.2025 14:44 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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'Whit' Diffie Erasure! Why human-provided structure improves AI answers to research questions, with examples.

'Whit' Diffie Erasure!
blog.expectedparrot.com/p/whit-diffi...

04.05.2025 00:06 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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🚨 New paper alert, with @johnjhorton.bsky.social! Using an experiment run on a large online labor market, we provide evidence that providing employers access to an AI-written first draft of a job post harms the efficiency of the market.

emmawiles.github.io/storage/jobo...

24.03.2025 17:00 πŸ‘ 93 πŸ” 28 πŸ’¬ 8 πŸ“Œ 2
Trump as grim reaper, w/ all the companies he's ran into the ground. We're next.

Trump as grim reaper, w/ all the companies he's ran into the ground. We're next.

10.03.2025 22:42 πŸ‘ 6 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

arrogant...but he's got a lot to be arrogant about. His documentation is way, way better than mine.

10.03.2025 18:06 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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gave Claude Code (wow!) some work to do writing documentation. It fixed up a file "survey.py" then got interrupted and lost the context. When it went back, it started again with "survey.py" and said...

10.03.2025 18:06 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Models you can run on @expectedparrot.bsky.social (w/ just one key); we also hit each one daily to make sure it's not deprecated/down and create this report: www.expectedparrot.com/getting-star...

10.03.2025 17:00 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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With E[P] you can run jobs locally using your own API keys for LLMs, or use our key which comes with $25 in credits. Toggle on "help me" and we'll dig into any issues with your surveys and experiments and help you fix them!

08.03.2025 18:51 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Thanks! cc: @expectedparrot.bsky.social LMK if you want any help using it - the use case you described above is *exactly* what motivated us

07.03.2025 13:51 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Call for submissions: Metascience and AI postdoctoral fellowship | Alfred P. Sloan Foundation Our mission is to make the world a better place through the advancement of scientific knowledge.

Sloan Foundation announced a program to support postdocs in philosophy, sociology, and metascience who want to understand how AI will affect science.

Pass it along to anyone who might be interested, the Institute for Complex Social Dynamics might be interested in hosting

sloan.org/programs/dig...

07.03.2025 00:27 πŸ‘ 79 πŸ” 69 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 5
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πŸŽ‚ @johnjhorton.bsky.social

06.03.2025 13:58 πŸ‘ 9 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

Indeed! Cc: @expectedparrot.bsky.social

06.03.2025 14:51 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Nice! Do you already have the transcripts of the podcasts?

06.03.2025 02:50 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 0
Expected Parrot

Or if you want to do text analysis www.expectedparrot.com/content/john...

05.03.2025 15:51 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Expected Parrot

What do you want to do w/ AI? I probably can help!

E.g., if you're say, working with old records, this NB might be of interest: www.expectedparrot.com/content/john...

05.03.2025 15:50 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0
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Two contrasting agent perspectives on DOGE:

05.03.2025 12:47 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Creating two personas

05.03.2025 12:47 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Extracting succinct descriptions of the policy

05.03.2025 12:47 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Economic content of the speech last night (w/ GPT-4o & @expectedparrot.bsky.social ) 1/ NB:
www.expectedparrot.com/content/john...

05.03.2025 12:47 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Note that I can parameterize the valuations the players have with a 'scenario' & that I can launch a bunch of different valuation scenarios easily:

04.03.2025 15:17 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Using skip-logic & piping to implement bilateral bargaining in github.com/expectedparr... Notebook here: www.expectedparrot.com/content/john...

04.03.2025 15:14 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

I was there first before that no talent ass clown bought it & was hoping he’d just give up and sell it

26.02.2025 01:37 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

I just posted the exact same thing on twitter and here & got way more engagement here despite having probably 7x the followers. Twitter really is cooked huh?

26.02.2025 00:57 πŸ‘ 5 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

oh and welcome to BlueSky @expectedparrot.bsky.social !

26.02.2025 00:43 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

For researchers/social scientists - the so-what here is you can potentially do very complex data-labeling flows (EDSL also supports skip-logic) w/o having to write a bunch of ad-hoc procedural code

26.02.2025 00:43 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
Expected Parrot

That's it!

EDSL is open source w/ an MIT license.

Notebook w/ EDSL code: expectedparrot.com/content/b068...
The resultant data from this run: expectedparrot.com/content/d156...
Oh, and here's the data in report format: www.expectedparrot.com/content/0f05...

26.02.2025 00:39 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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EDSL uses these jinja2 templates + variables to figure out the right order for questions to be run in - it makes the API calls as parallel as possible

26.02.2025 00:39 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Then, we have the survey. It has a bunch of named questions corresponding to the parts of the original prompt. They are all free text. Note the 'piping' of answers to earlier question to later questions:

26.02.2025 00:39 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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First, we go get the Senators from Claude - by using a QuestionList, we know we'll get back a list

26.02.2025 00:39 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

This is very cool & the point is push the model to its limits, but specifying this kind of complex flow is quite easy with github.com/expectedparr... - short thread 1/n

26.02.2025 00:39 πŸ‘ 5 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0