Von der Leyen out now with a statement that tries to walk a fine line between support (“Iran must never acquire the bomb”) and veiled criticism (“respect for international law is critical”) of US actions
Spanish are serious about their rejection to 5%. They argue it will rush off-the-shelf purchases, making a mess of interoperability and undermine made in Europe. Funding at EU-level unresolved. And - food for thought - target incompatible with the European welfare state. See you at The Hague
Israel approved plans on Monday to take full control of the Gaza Strip and remain in the territory for an unspecified period, according to two Israeli officials.
"That said, the notion of recession is less well-defined in European countries with low potential growth ... [there is] a low bar for a technical recession in Europe."
Ouch, Goldman Sachs. Too mean.
Operator can track and quantify outage, but can’t explain (yet) what caused it. European officials suggested no indication of cyber attack, but Spanish PM refused twice to rule out any scenario. Meanwhile, Ukraine is offering assistance and the EPP is going ahead with its party congress in Valencia.
Spanish PM confirms what sources had briefed earlier - in the space of five seconds, 15 GW were “suddenly lost” from system or the equivalent of 60% of total energy demand at that time. Drop led to worst blackout in modern history. PM says not ruling out any scenario.
Von der Leyen met Trump very briefly on the sidelines. No bilateral sitdown expected today. Top spox say they “agreed to meet” without providing further details on timing or format. A separate official told me you don’t solve a trade spat during a funeral. It was an icebreaker.
Tras el muy comentado viaje de Pedro Sánchez a Pekín, mi entrevista con el ministro de exteriores Albares. Estados Unidos, China y una política exterior que no quieren elegir bandos. Sin embargo la política comercial y la guerra arancelaria arrastra al desacople.
legrandcontinent.eu/es/2025/04/1...
Summing up the week
«The problem with the anti-coercion instrument is that it has never been used before, so it will have to be drafted very carefully to make sure it is effective, but also taking into account the precedent it might set. I would have thought we would have used it against China first.»
«Trump II tariffs will be much worse, but the administration underestimates the reaction of the rest of the world. The irony is that Trump may end up reviving the rules-based multilateral trading system – without the US»
geopolitique.eu/en/2025/04/0...
A diplomat said to me last week White House underestimating effect Liberation Day will have on the rest of the world. Today: « South Korea, China and Japan held their first economic dialogue in five years, seeking to facilitate regional trade.»
www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...
Deutsche Bank in note «In our view, this is a historic fiscal regime shift, arguably the largest since German reunification. Yet fiscal expansion does not guarantee success: the next government will need to deliver structural reforms to turn this fiscal package into sustainable growth.»
Italy’s Giorgetti «Germany is now doing whatever the hell they want because (the rules) no longer suit them, so they do the opposite. Naturally, without consulting anyone». This is very much aimed for domestic consumption, yet harsh from a usually mild-mannered minister
www.ansa.it/sito/notizie...
About today
Hegseth lays out framework ahead of MSC:
- return to 2014 borders unrealistic
- rules out Ukraine Nato membership
- security guarantees have to be robust (no Minsk 3.0) but clear that is mostly a responsibility for Europeans (Zelensky had said prior it wouldn’t be enough)
«When targeted unfairly or arbitrarily - the European Union will respond firmly» says Ursula von der Leyen after Brussels summit.
Polish PM Tusk hits the nail on the head «why choose conflict among Allies? We have to everything to avoid a stupid and totally unnecessary tariff war but at the same time during our talks with our American friends we can’t lose right of our European interests and self-respect.»
Trump hit Latin America fast and furious. Except for Venezuela. Preserving the status quo is good enough for Maduro. Unique window for the EU to expand relations via CELAC and Mercosur. But that means ratification. The German/Spanish argument this is geopolitics as much as trade amplified x 100
Milei mentioned the term woke 16 times in his Davos speech this year - compared to 0 references in 2024. La motosierra started mostly as economic shock therapy but it’s morphing. For Milei, it’s not just about taming inflation, it’s civilizational.
legrandcontinent.eu/es/2025/01/2...
The US president insisted he was serious in his determination to take over Greenland in a fiery telephone call with Denmark’s prime minister www.ft.com/content/ace0...
Marco Rubio has had calls with the foreign ministers of Poland, Latvia and Lithuania individually. European top diplomat Kallas hopes to get one soon but no timing yet - per official today. Needless to say, the EU favors 27 jointly over case by case.
The Spanish say they are serious about this proposal - three pillars - more transparency on algorithm and user identification (not necessarily public, nickname, alias etc but connected to real ID) will be pitched during the March EUCO summit.
Spanish PM Sánchez says there is a right to privacy, but social media creating impunity. Pitches something like a « European social media ID » even if you take a nickname. One user: one ID. Algorithm which he calls « a black box » has to be more transparent.
Spanish PM Pedro Sánchez says he will pitch measures to end anonymity on social media in the next EU Council. He tells Davos « you can’t mail a package without showing an ID, yet roam freely without linking a profile to a real identity» argues toxic for public debate & misinformation
The question is relevant because von der Leyen enjoyed direct access to the White House in her first term as Commission President. This was useful - almost vital - when the war in ukraine broke out regarding sanctions. Trump sidelining senior EU leadership poses a question of unity under pressure.
Von der Leyen’s top spox said earlier « attempts » to schedule a meeting with Trump have been made, but no specific date. Asked whether VDL coordinated with Meloni, says « it’s a ceremony, not a meeting » there was no particular message.
Thoughts ahead of next week
«Il faut mettre fin au chantage nucléaire de Poutine».
Une conversation menée par @mariatad.bsky.social avec @glandsbergis.bsky.social, ancien ministre des Affaires étrangères de Lituanie.
legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/01/1...
Meloni in press conference -
«I don’t agree with everything Elon Musk says but he’s not a danger to democracy. What’s the real issue…he’s rich, influential and doesn’t support the left?
Meloni also suggests Soros meddled far more than Musk in EU affairs. «That’s also political interference.»
