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Marcelo Jenny

@marcelojenny

political scientist / in love with politics parliaments elections democracy

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12.10.2023
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Latest posts by Marcelo Jenny @marcelojenny

Grüne 31,8
CDU 29,3
SPD 5,5
FDP 4,5
AfD 17,6
Linke 4,5
Andere 6,8

Grüne 31,8 CDU 29,3 SPD 5,5 FDP 4,5 AfD 17,6 Linke 4,5 Andere 6,8

1. Hochrechnung 

Landtagswahl Baden-Württemberg 2026 Gewinne und Verluste

Grüne -O,8
CDU +5,2
SPD -5,5
FDP -6,0
AfD +7.9
Linke +0,9
Andere -1,7

1. Hochrechnung Landtagswahl Baden-Württemberg 2026 Gewinne und Verluste Grüne -O,8 CDU +5,2 SPD -5,5 FDP -6,0 AfD +7.9 Linke +0,9 Andere -1,7

Hochrechnung 18.24 Uhr

08.03.2026 17:41 👍 2 🔁 1 💬 1 📌 0
Landtagswahl Baden-Württemberg 2026 Sitzverteilung
Grüne 58
CDU 54
SPD 10
AfD 32

Landtagswahl Baden-Württemberg 2026 Sitzverteilung Grüne 58 CDU 54 SPD 10 AfD 32

08.03.2026 17:41 👍 2 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
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An analysis of over 14 million social media posts from accounts in Canada found that 87% of conspiratorial claims come from just 100 influencers.

This minority of users impacts politics, influencing what people view as normal and leads to self-censoring to avoid attacks from conspiracy theorists.

08.03.2026 12:48 👍 529 🔁 245 💬 8 📌 25

the Putin playbook. Accuse others, do it often enough and eventuelly the lie becomes the truth.

08.03.2026 08:36 👍 30 🔁 7 💬 1 📌 0

Ergebnis ist eine Momentaunahme des Meinungsspektrums in der Partei, mit dem Babler leben kann. Großbritanniens Premierminister Keir Starmer würde sich so ein Ergebnis wünschen. Vor der nächsten NRW-Wahl wird der Richtungsstreit zwar wieder aufflackern, aber jetzt ist Verschnaufpause.

08.03.2026 09:13 👍 3 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
IWM Rector | IWM WEBSITE About the IWM

The Institute for Human Sciences (IWM) in Vienna, Austria invites applications for the position of Rector. This is an opportunity to lead an institution dedicated to the humanities and social sciences at a defining moment. Deadline 30 April 2026.
@iwm.at
www.iwm.at/jobs/iwm-rec...

07.03.2026 17:35 👍 278 🔁 91 💬 7 📌 3

The central argument in my book is that trump is using contrived emergencies in an effort to claim the kind of unlimited power asserted by 17th century British monarchs. The Iran War is one example of this.

06.03.2026 19:31 👍 63 🔁 23 💬 9 📌 3
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Leavitt: "When he as commander in chief determines that Iran no longer poses a threat to the US and the goals of Operation Epic Fury have been fully realized, then Iran will essentially be in a place of unconditional surrender whether they say it themselves or not"

06.03.2026 18:33 👍 2247 🔁 494 💬 1521 📌 1111
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always loved this book

06.03.2026 18:10 👍 246 🔁 48 💬 11 📌 2
Preview
How voter availability shapes parties’ policy priorities Political parties often adjust their policies to address emerging issues, or to attract — or regain — support. However, warns Fabian Habersack, such strategic pivots carry significant risks,…

🌀

Political parties often adjust their strategies on emerging issues to broaden their support or 🗳️ regain lost voters

⚠️ However, this can be a risky move, especially if parties misjudge their electoral potential, writes @fabianhabersack.bsky.social

👉 bit.ly/41Yx1TL
@ecprpovb.bsky.social

06.03.2026 17:12 👍 3 🔁 2 💬 0 📌 0
Israel wants "Greater Israel"; article with links: https://sarahkendzior.substack.com/p/the-no-world-order

Israel wants "Greater Israel"; article with links: https://sarahkendzior.substack.com/p/the-no-world-order

sarahkendzior.substack.com/p/the-no-wor...

06.03.2026 18:11 👍 273 🔁 143 💬 8 📌 4
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If anyone is friends with any Georgian air traffic controllers, buy them a nice bottle of wine. As guardians of pretty much the only narrow gap still available between Europe and Asia that avoids both Iran, the Gulf, Ukraine and Russia, they are under some substantial pressure.

03.03.2026 14:26 👍 3965 🔁 1278 💬 71 📌 131

Via @larrysabato.bsky.social, there are periods where gas prices are highly correlated with presidential approval, most notably under George W. Bush. The US is more polarised today, but this still presents a major political/electoral threat for Trump and the GOP.

06.03.2026 17:39 👍 21 🔁 11 💬 1 📌 0
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This is a real video from the official White House account on a war that is currently killing people. I don’t know how the US is going to come back from this.
The post was “JUSTICE THE AMERICAN WAY. 🇺🇸 🔥”

06.03.2026 08:22 👍 3586 🔁 1249 💬 726 📌 1255
Preview
Can AI Replace Social Science Researchers? No. No it can't. Come on, now.

New post: Can AI Replace Social Science Researchers? (No. No it can't. Come on, now.)

davekarpf.beehiiv.com/p/can-ai-rep...

05.03.2026 16:49 👍 466 🔁 129 💬 25 📌 36
A picture of PEW poll on global attitude survey, saying the % who rate the morality and ethics of people in their country as good vs bad, where the US has the worst rankings and Canada the best

A picture of PEW poll on global attitude survey, saying the % who rate the morality and ethics of people in their country as good vs bad, where the US has the worst rankings and Canada the best

Americans: we live in a fallen state—embroiled by sin, cheating, lying, and evil. You cannot trust anyone, not even those who claim to know you best

Canadians: I love my neighbors and my friends!

05.03.2026 16:09 👍 5974 🔁 1563 💬 290 📌 533
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what do americans think is the number one problem in the country? the government.

05.03.2026 15:31 👍 68 🔁 22 💬 12 📌 4
Die NSDAP kommt auf 43,9 %, die SPD, trotz der vielen Verhaftungen immer noch auf 18,3 %

Die NSDAP kommt auf 43,9 %, die SPD, trotz der vielen Verhaftungen immer noch auf 18,3 %

Am 5. März 1933 war die letzte Reichtagswahl, an der mehr als eine Partei teilnahm und der von den Nazis erhoffte Erdrutschsieg fand trotz Einschüchterungen, massenweise Folterungen und Verhaftungen nicht statt.
Guten Morgen

05.03.2026 07:24 👍 90 🔁 29 💬 3 📌 3

The Iran/US/Israel war might have already broken the record for the highest number of AI-generated videos and images that have gone viral during a conflict.

Interestingly, I said the exact same thing right after the 12-day war in June.

Welcome to our brave new world of AI misinformation.

05.03.2026 03:59 👍 303 🔁 100 💬 7 📌 5

It is quite astonishing to remember the Iraq war, the demise of a brutal dictator there, the principled opposition of France and Germany, the chaos and regional instability that followed vindicating French and German opposition - and to see only Sanchez have the courage to take a stance.

04.03.2026 12:02 👍 313 🔁 76 💬 8 📌 2
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Excellent, detailed and quite long read on oil & gas.

The nightmare Iran energy scenario is becoming reality
economist.com/finance-and-...

04.03.2026 07:54 👍 35 🔁 30 💬 3 📌 5
Preview
The majority of UK academic institutions now no longer post on X - LSE Impact For the first time, more UK universities and associated organisations are inactive on X than active.

💥New post | The majority of UK academic institutions now no longer post on X

✍️ @andytattersall.bsky.social

#AcademicSky #X #AcademicSocialMedia

03.03.2026 12:00 👍 121 🔁 49 💬 2 📌 5

"UK: Yvette Cooper says plans under consideration to evacuate about 300,000 Britons from Middle East amid Iran war."
Wie soll das gehen?

02.03.2026 09:11 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
In Iran, air power alone will not reshape the regime. Since WWI, dozens of U.S., Israeli & allied air campaigns have tried to force political change — none installed friendly governments. None! They strengthen nationalism and intensify resistance.

In Iran, air power alone will not reshape the regime. Since WWI, dozens of U.S., Israeli & allied air campaigns have tried to force political change — none installed friendly governments. None! They strengthen nationalism and intensify resistance.

the guy who wrote the literal book on this stuff is dunking on the admin:

28.02.2026 13:58 👍 2135 🔁 555 💬 18 📌 46

possibly the one woman in DC with a brain operating at full capacity?

27.02.2026 22:10 👍 942 🔁 165 💬 14 📌 41
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new farage foreign policy dropping

28.02.2026 16:23 👍 115 🔁 26 💬 8 📌 2
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Bloc Parties In a world of bloc politics, what's a good offensive strategy?

I suppose I should have linked to my actual Bloc Parties piece with the carefully designed homage to Silent Alarm

benansell.substack.com/p/bloc-parties

27.02.2026 08:31 👍 14 🔁 3 💬 1 📌 0
Preview
Gorton and Denton by-election: Monster Raving Loony Party candidate The Monster Raving Loony Party says Sir Oink-a-Lot will "bring home the bacon" in Gorton and Denton.

Sir Oink-a-lot: www.bbc.com/news/article...

27.02.2026 08:31 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Duverger und Downs schütteln den Kopf: wie geht das?

27.02.2026 08:09 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0