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Charles A. Gardner, PhD

@chancethegardener

My goals are to reduce smoking-related DEATH and reduce teen nicotine USE. Both involve change. To change something, you need to be able to measure it...

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Latest posts by Charles A. Gardner, PhD @chancethegardener

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Nicotine vapes ("e-cigarettes") vs. THC vapes are two entirely different things AG Tong. Different devices, liquids, people and purposes.

US teen nicotine vaping is NOT a "growing danger" to youth. It has plummeted to a 12-year low according to CDC/FDA surveys and also NIH-funded surveys.

07.03.2026 20:10 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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FDA just released 2025 teen nicotine vaping, smoking and nicotine pouch use numbers (top left).

So I decided to put FDA's graph in a slide with the Y axis set honestly at 100%, rather than 8% (top right). Most kids, BY FAR, do not use nicotine.

And that use is dropping (bottom left and right)

07.03.2026 20:05 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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I hope more countries follow. This "biblical" disease should be eradicated.

Another neglected disease troubles me: rabies. 50,000 deaths/year worldwide. That's both a lot, and not enough to get funders interested.

100% mortality if you don't get post-exposure vaccine. Kills a lot of kids.

06.03.2026 22:20 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

When governments "curb the sale of e-cigarettes" they discourage smoking cessation, cause many ex-smokers to relapse to smoking deadly cigarettes, and protect Big Tobacco cigarette sales.

06.03.2026 00:40 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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US FDA released 2025 teen nicotine vape use data today.

US teen nicotine vaping:
- down 12% from 2024-2025
- down 74% from 2019-2025... to an 11-year low

So can we PLEASE now focus on helping adults quit smoking? You know, like preventing DEATH and stuff?

06.03.2026 00:37 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Polite respectful discussion & debate helps us all to spot errors & adopt better positions. But tobacco control orthodoxy knows it will be annihilated in public debate so ensures debate can’t happen @chancethegardener.bsky.social @jgitchell.bsky.social @igas2.bsky.social @ianamossyd.bsky.social

05.03.2026 01:07 πŸ‘ 8 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Flavour Bans and the Cigarette Rebound: The Evidence Public Health Doesn’t Want to Discuss Sigh. That was the word Charles Gardner, PHD used when he shared yet another stack of studies examining what happened after nicotine vape flavour bans were introduced across US cities, US states, and ...

Flavour Bans and the Cigarette Rebound: The Evidence Public Health Doesn’t Want to Discuss

@chancethegardener.bsky.social @alexwodak.bsky.social @melissasweetdr.bsky.social
@squigglyrick.bsky.social

open.substack.com/pub/09algor/...

05.03.2026 02:21 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Australia increased ciggie sin taxes
An illicit market grew
So they increased sin taxes even more
Illicit market skyrocketed
So they invested millions in police crack-downs,
and increased sin taxes even more...

RESULT:
Huge illicit marker run by violent drug gangs
Smoking rate no longer dropping

04.03.2026 17:22 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Great way to shift the state tax burden to the poor. Missouri truly does love company...

04.03.2026 17:13 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Tobacco control has used the words "tobacco," "smoking" and "nicotine" as if they are synonyms for many decades. So I apologize for my confusion.

I am always puzzled by "gateway to smoking claims." Among all UK adults, the age group with the steepest rate of smoking decline is young adults.

03.03.2026 19:51 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Profiting from Harm: How Governments Sell Cigarettes While Blocking Safer Alternatives There is a profound contradiction in global tobacco control that rarely gets addressed directly: many governments charged with protecting public health continue to profit from the sale of the world’s ...

Profiting from Harm: How Governments Sell Cigarettes While Blocking Safer Alternatives

@alexwodak.bsky.social @chancethegardener.bsky.social @melissasweetdr.bsky.social

open.substack.com/pub/09algor/...

03.03.2026 09:31 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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You think nicotine vapes cause cancer? What if they don't?

Teens should NOT use nicotine. That's illegal. YOU should not assume the vapor is as harmful as cigarette smoke. That's delusional.

02.03.2026 19:59 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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How the h*ll is 2nd hand vapor going to give your dog cancer? CDC studies show indoor air even in vape shops where people blow big clouds have carcinogen levels "below occcupational safety limits." And the vapor evaporates in 20 seconds. Please stop making sh*t up.
www.cdc.gov/niosh/hhe/re...

02.03.2026 19:56 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Wow. 490,000 Americans are DYING every year from smoking cigarettes, and some funder and some researchers thought THIS was a priority? OMG.

02.03.2026 19:51 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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I wonder what evidence convinced him of that. FYI, he might be wrong.

02.03.2026 19:44 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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TWO SCHOOLS OF THOUGHT
The one that's wrong is now causing millions of preventable deaths:

1) Dozens of countries allow or encourage people who smoke to switch to nicotine vapes.

2) 38 countries with an average male smoking rate of 32% prohibit nicotine vapes but leave deadly cigarettes legal.

02.03.2026 19:42 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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New Evidence Shows Vascular Health Improves After Quitting Smoking - Including When Switching to E-Cigarettes https://academic.oup.com/eurjpc/advance-article/doi/10.1093/eurjpc/zwag123/8496698?login=false

New Evidence Shows Vascular Health Improves After Quitting Smoking - Including When Switching to E-Cigarettes

@alexwodak.bsky.social @melissasweetdr.bsky.social
@chancethegardener.bsky.social

open.substack.com/pub/09algor/...

02.03.2026 07:00 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

US teen nicotine vaping dropped 70% and teen smoking dropped 68% from 2019-2024. Over the same time period, US teen mental health problems nearly doubled.

If you are suggesting that nicotine vaping CAUSES teen mental health problems, you are off your rockers.

01.03.2026 17:10 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

It's a three minute read. Fully referenced if you want to #FactCheckMe.

01.03.2026 17:02 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 1

Thank you for a respectful response. Truly. I apologize for misunderstanding.

In the field of tobacco control, there HAS been a shift in goal posts: from ending smoking-related death & disease, to ending the tobacco industry, to ending all nicotine use.

Unfeasible goals guarantee job security.

01.03.2026 17:01 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

You are one of my political heroes sir. I hope you run in 2028.

I have visited Tehran twice. Once as a WHO advisor. 2nd time at the request of WIPO to give a series of lectures at the University of Tehran.

Bad govt. But wonderful, warm, kind people. Generous to a fault. Great sense of humor.

28.02.2026 17:34 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Big Tobacco lied in the 1990s and earlier. That's proven. Today, however, lies come from a different source. Consider this standard Tobacco Control claim:

"E-cigarettes have increased in popularity, especially among youth."

#FactCheck: FALSE. Tobacco control is a bit off-the-rails right now.

28.02.2026 17:30 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Can you explain to me why you think ending nicotine use is a good and logical goal? You must know nicotine itself does not cause cancer, heart or lung disease.

27.02.2026 17:47 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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12/12
Fear of teen nicotine "addiction" is legitimate. It's a loss of autonomy, so a harm. But not as bad as DEATH (e.g. from teen binge drinking).

Few understand that their #MoralPanic is now being exploited to protect Big Tobacco cigarette sales and please US billionaire Mike Bloomberg.

27.02.2026 17:24 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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11/12
To know daily nicotine use, we need to multiply one fraction by another fraction:

5.9% x 26.3% = 1.6%

Most journalists and policymakers get confused about this. They tell the public, incorrectly, "1 in 4 teens are vaping daily." Stoking #MoralPanic even further.

27.02.2026 17:24 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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10/12
NYTS measures daily use. But for some reason, the CDC makes it VERY difficult to find daily use.

Which is strange. If our concern is teen nicotine "addiction," then we need to know daily use. NOT "current use." That is mostly just experimentation.

27.02.2026 17:24 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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9/12
NYTS shows "youth tobacco product use" has dropped to a 25-year low.

Note: "Tobacco product" = ANY nicotine product*

* Any except nicotine patches & gum. In THESE products, the exact same pharma-grade nicotine has been magically transformed into "medical nicotine."
cdc.gov/media/releas...

27.02.2026 17:24 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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8/12
The CDC's NYTS launched in 1999 (not as old as the MTF).

But it has one advantage: the NYTS includes both high school AND middle school kids.
cdc.gov/media/releas...

27.02.2026 17:24 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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7/12
The graph above is from a very different survey, the
CDC's National Youth Tobacco Survey (NYTS). Also easy to #FactCheck.

When 2 different surveys agree, that is strong evidence that the measure is real: Teen nicotine dependence HAS dropped to an all-time low.

27.02.2026 17:24 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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6/12
Journalists, non-profits, and state and federal lawmakers are ALL telling the public:

"E-cigarettes created a whole new generation addicted to nicotine."

So... Are they ALL lying? I don't think so. Most of them believe that. A very weird group-think delusion.

27.02.2026 17:24 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0