The net loss of Russian coal companies in 2025 went even above the initial projections of 350 billion rubles to reach 408 billion rubles up from 112,6 billion rubles in 2024. The share of profitable companies dropped from 46,7% in 2024 to 33,9% in 2025.
Civil War II
This time, it’s personal!
In today's blog post, I review Phillips O'Brien's (@phillipspobrien.bsky.social) new book, War and Power. Highly recommended, not just to understand Russia v. Ukraine but also US v. Iran and (possibly) US v. China.
open.substack.com/pub/ukrainei...
I mean yes but to how many ads have they’ve exposed realistically? Probably dozens every single day. So even if the overlap is huge, there is still a decent return on an investment which must be a fraction of a TV campaign. Here in Europe large companies such as Aldi and Lidl have gone full digital.
I don’t agree here. The point is not about ONE ad campaign but ALL ad campaigns over the past few years. So roughly assuming that people have seen say 100 ads and that there is no overlap, the transformation ratio is like 0.11% which considering prices may still be good value.
And… Brent is above $110/bbl. Remember, this is all part of 4D chess.
Russia may even end up with a direct confrontation between the Fiscalskis aspiring for political enfranchisement and limited government in Moscow and Saint Pete and the Betterobskis who want the state to keep spending money ideally derived from the sale of resources
The second way the Putinist system is submitted to new threats is a collapse of the old social contract : no representation but no taxation. Paying for the war coupled with declining O&G revenues have led the Kremlin to rely increasingly on the good old taxman.
the easy cash runs out.
It’s a little like how the initial winners of China’s liberalisation in the 80s led the contestation on Tiananmen Square. But worse because the good days will abruptly come to an end and Beterov may face a return to the status quo ex ante.
First, by spending the accumulated reserves the Kremlin has created an economic boom centred on some of the least developed regions of the country it has created a class of newly better-offs (Beterov?) who may not be content any more with the current state of affairs and may turn violent when
Please allow me to put my political scientist hat on for just a second.
Technically it’s not a hat, more a cleverly folded broadsheet but that’s immaterial.
Over the past four years the massive outlay of state funds by the Kremlin has had at least two distinct destabilising effects on the society
Danke meine liebe Prunelle (as it is your true official name according to Google)
Deathonomics is meh as a name for a concept.
We should have a better one one.
Golden meat waves?
Angel investors?
Suicidelionaires?
Vultures’ fund?
The butcher’s bill?
Order of the golden flag?
What is the future of Putin's "deathonomics" that has allowed Kremlin to keep the number of volunteers high, avoid mobilization and desensitize Russian society towards the war in Ukraine?
Thread 1/9
That’s a very helpful point of comparison, thx.
Sea baby goes vroooom.
I’ve often said that the most interesting precedent for late Putinist Russia was… Egypt under the mamluks. Coteries at odds with one-another skilfully manipulated by the central power, former favorites thrown in jail and stripped of all possessions as a financial expedient. It’s all there.
I’m sure some spin doctors are saying precisely that in some of the gold-laden rooms of the Kremlin
Champagne!!!!
February 2026 was called the worst month for the Russian car market in the last 10 years Automobile Manufacturers Committee of the Association of European Businesses. Sales dropped 6% to 75,4 thousand new passenger cars and LCVs.
Credible reports that ginormous Russian LNG (liquid natural gas) tanker Arctic Metagaz is on fire in Mediterranean. Reports suggest it was hit be a USV (uncrewed surface vessel)
Whether Iran linked or Ukraine, very big implications for Russian war effort
Sausage favoured cinnamon cake sounds like a morbidly racist sexual innuendo.
Cancelling the war insurance coverage will effectively stop traffic anyhow …
This is terrible news for the world on so many levels
Today on French media they are constantly talking about something else completely. Epic Furry!
Moscovia indeed.
Russian Industrial output for January 2026 decreased by 0,8% when compared to January 2025. When it comes to the military production output munitions are down 6%. Guidance systems are up only 9,8% and production of military vehicles is up 24,5%.
New on Substack: a couple more words on regional deficits & some initial high-level findings on regional veteran training programs. Plus an assortment of interesting regional news that didn't make it into the Bear Market Brief.
Also available on the blog soon!
minczifra.substack.com/p/on-regiona...
So we’re looking at the Spanish example instead?
The king of Spain regularly seized more than the expected quinto (fifth) on the bullion imported annually on the silver fleet. It did allow the Habsburg to triumph from the French and the Ottoman but they failed to crush the Dutch revolt.
