@aylinmatle
Senior Research fellow @ DGAP (German Council on Foreign Relations) | German security & defense, NATO | Heading a research project on the interconnectedness of Euro-Atlantic/Indo-Pacific theatres https://dgap.org/de/user/28807
• #Bottomline (so far): not as much of a rupture as anticipated (without knowing, of course, what the #GlobalPostureReview, the last piece of the puzzle, holds in store)
Here's the link to the complete document: media.defense.gov/2026/Jan/23/...
That said, the NDS explicitly references Russia’s nuclear arsenal and its potential employment against the U.S. homeland. Interestingly, security arguments for Greenland’s strategic importance only fully add up if Washington indeed continues to regard Russia as a serious potential threat.
This approach could become problematic in case of complete withdrawal of U.S. conventional forces from Europe.
• #Russia: The NDS acknowledges the threat R. poses to NATO’s eastern members, while confirming that the current admin does n. view Russia as the central challenge the Biden admin did.
Alliances and #NATO
The NDS is far from a renunciation of alliances, including NATO (a clear commitment to the Alliance can be found in the doc). Yet, as long expected, the U.S. role is set to become “critical but more limited”—most likely referring to #NuclearForces.
Notably, the document does not endorse the idea that European allies could play a role in Taiwan’s defense—contrary to arguments made by @johnrdeni.bsky.social ( breakingdefense.com/2026/01/the-...) and by @weberv.bsky.social & I in @ipq.bsky.social : ip-quarterly.com/en/case-berl...)
At the same time, the strategy seeks to establish a BoP in the IP through #DeterrenceByDenial, raising questions about how this will translate into concrete policy toward #Taiwan
The NDS emphasizes cooperation and negotiation from a position of strength—a very long-standing approach already adopted by NATO in 1967. A position, btw, #Ukraine has long demanded to be put in—rightly so.
#Greenland is explicitly mentioned in the context of #MissileDefense, though it remains questionable whether the “Golden Dome” concept can deliver what #Trump has promised it would.
• China: The language on China is comparatively restrained, esp. given expectations when Trump re-entered the WH
What is notable, however, is that the NDS does not depart as sharply from traditional U.S. defense thinking as the NSS initially suggested.
• Defending the U.S. homeland and access to the Western Hemisphere remains priority number one - This is hardly new—and applies to any nation.
Complementing the U.S. #NationalSecurityStrategy (NSS) America’s new #NationalDefenseStrategy (NDS) has just been published.
A few initial takeaways after a first read 👇
Overall, there is little that is entirely surprising or genuinely new. Much of the NDS aligns closely with the NSS.
Let’s see how the #GlobalPostureReview and #NationalDefenseStrategy will complement the picture, especially for #NATO and #Europe.
Overall initial take: managing #transatlantic relations is most likely not going to be easier in the years ahead- at the same time: no major withdrawal plans from Europe announced (yet) + #NSS still underlines importance of alliances/allies, including those in #NATO-Europe
-Chapter on IP reads much more favorably to interest of US allies/partners in the sense that US will continue supporting their security interests, eg: „deterring conflict over Taiwan, ideally by preserving military overmatch, is a priority“; yet, more burden-sharing called for as well
-#28pointplan vibes: „Managing European relations with Russia will require significant U.S. diplomatic engagement (…) to mitigate risk of conflict between Russia and European states“) ⁃ Unsurprisingly, the NSS encourages European allies to „stand on its own feet“, especially in defense terms
-First paragraphs on #Europe in line with VP JD Vance‘s remarks at this year’s #MSC: „The larger issues facing Europe include activities of the EU and other transnational bodies that undermine political liberty & sovereignty (…) censorship of free speech and suppression of political opposition (…)“
Long anticipated, now released, the #US’ new #NationalSecurityStrategy👉🏼
Here are a few first 💭 :
- largely aligned with what has been expected/leaked in previous months: Trump administration is set to continue prioritizing #WesternHemisphere and #IndoPacific over Europe
Scientists have analysed 10,000 marine animal autopsies to understand how plastic ingestion leads to death. They were surprised by how little plastic can be dangerous. www.bbc.com/news/article...
This is what happens when you toss plastic or don’t pick up what’s there.
1/n - Trump says something about nuclear weapons tests...It’s hard to know what he means. As usual, he’s unclear, all over the map, and wrong.
1. The United States has more Nuclear Weapons than any other country.
Wrong. Russia has more nuclear weapons than the United States.
Great essay by @aylinmatle.bsky.social and Hanna Gers on interlinkages between Euro-Atlantic and Asia-Pacific theaters: "In the Same Boat: Security Challenges in the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific" dgap.org/en/research/... via @dgap.org
Our new article w @aylinmatle.bsky.social "The Case for Berlin Supplying Arms to Taipei" was published in the
@ipq.bsky.social. Taiwan is struggling with the effects of insufficient and late US #weapons deliveries. It would be in the interest of Germany to step in. ip-quarterly.com/en/case-berl...
New: @aylinmatle.bsky.social & @weberv.bsky.social argue that it would be in Germany’s interests to supply arms to Taiwan, as it struggles with the effects of late and insufficient US deliveries.
ip-quarterly.com/en/case-berl...
“While there is no acute danger of escalation, the exercise will provide NATO with important lessons on 🇷🇺’s concept of a future war”, write our military experts @aylinmatle.bsky.social & András Rácz in a new Memo publication ahead of the upcoming Zapad-2025 exercise from September 12 to 16.
🇪🇺, 🇺🇦 & 🇺🇸 stehen unter Spannung, Sicherheitsexpertin @aylinmatle.bsky.social ist dennoch vorsichtig optimistisch. Bei ZDF heute ordnet sie ein, warum 🇪🇺 bei Sicherheitsgarantien für 🇺🇦 zurückhaltend ist & wie eine mögliche militärische Unterstützung aussehen könnte.
▶️: www.zdf.de/play/magazin...
Die diplomatischen Drähte zwischen Europa, der Ukraine und den USA glühen vor dem Treffen zwischen #Trump und #Putin.
In #ZDF#HeuteLive (ab Min 41) habe ich darüber gesprochen, :https://www.zdf.de/play/magazine/zdfheute-live-102/merz-selenskyj-trump-treffen-ukraine-video-100. @dgap.org
"Warum Deutschland einen #Nationalen #Sicherheitsrat gründet" - u.a. mit Einschätzungen von mir: www.dw.com/de/warum-deu... via #DeutscheWelle. @dgap.org
"Berlin left in the dark as Washington weighs troop cuts in Europe" via @politico.com - thanks for the opportunity to contribute some thoughts on the matter: www.politico.eu/article/germ.... @dgap.org
"Wie schnell wird die Bundeswehr fit, um Angriffskriege abzuwehren?" - ein längeres Gespräch mit mir via #DeutscheWelle, in dem wir viel über eine mögliche #Wehrpflicht gesprochen haben, aber auch über #Deutschlands künftige Rolle in der #NATO
"Beratung als Beruf" - danke für die Einladung, zum Internationale Politik @internationalepolitik.de #Special „Weltendenker. Politikberatung in bewegten Zeiten" anlässlich des 70. Geburtstags der @dgap.org über #Sicherheitspolitik schreiben zu können: internationalepolitik.de/de/beratung-...
„Es geht nicht nur darum, Trump einen Gefallen zu tun und ihn zu besänftigen, sondern das sind ja tatsächlich Investitionen (...), die notwendig sind“, so Expertin @aylinmatle.bsky.social bei Bremen 2 mit Blick auf das anvisierte 5-Prozent-Ziel der #NATO -Mitgliedsstaaten.
“It's not about pleasing the Americans, nor is it about lining the pockets of the arms industry. It's in 🇩🇪's national interest to be capable of defending itself,” #defense expert @aylinmatle.bsky.social told Deutsche Welle ahead of the upcoming #NATO summit in The Hague.
