Jordi Schröder Bosch

"We are freeing Iran from religious fanatics".

A prayer for Trump in the White House.

Unfortunately I would say that central banks, at least the ECB, drew the opposite lesson from 2022

Tan* ja no sé escriure en català :|

Clar però precisament la diferència és tant gran per l'efecte del preu del gas al preu majorista italià. Per tant, en tot cas, la diferència no seria tant gran.

I'm really glad European policymakers are focused on what's important

Unbelievable

1/7🧵 New paper "Too Much Finance Redux" with Jean-Louis Arcand and Enrico Berkes — a follow-up to over a decade of work on whether financial deepening can go too far. Here's the story: @gvagrad.bsky.social

What the 2022 energy crisis taught us about inflation — and why it matters now with Iran The European Central Bank itself has repeatedly said over the years that its policies are ineffective when dealing with energy shocks.

Gas prices are surging again after the US-Israeli attack on Iran, and talk of ECB rate hikes returned this week.

Before repeating 2022-2023, it’s worth revisiting what actually happened during the last energy shock and how the ECBs crisis policies played out.

Following up on this. Finland is by far the euro area country most decoupled from gas. Wholesale electricity prices in Portugal and Lithuania are largely uncorrelated with gas prices. Italy, Ireland, and Greece will be among the most negatively impacted if gas prices continue rising.

They will feel the price pressure nonetheless, but most European countries do not import LNG from Qatar.

Also, I'm just checking euro area countries, not EU ones.

Just to say, do not take this classification too seriously, it is justa first approximation based on simple regressions and correlations.

In general, trying to identify which countries are more or less exposed to gas is not easy (other than Finland and Italy), given the role of interconnections. France generates almost no electricity with gas, but is nonetheless impacted through interconnections with Italy, Germany, etc.

I cannot make sense of it, even when comparing it to other countries in Nord Pool.

Lithuania is a case of its own, with prices peaking at €500/MWh yesterday, while it used no gas and exported to other countries. I should look more into it.

Greece and Portugal yesterday and today.

The difference in wholesale prices between Finland and Italy today 💀

For exposed countries, wholesale prices concentrate around the €100/MWh range (higher in Italy). There is much more dispersion in less exposed countries.

Finland basically uses no gas for electricity production. Lithuania and Portugal do, but the share of renewables is so high that decoupling happens during many hours. In Greece, gas produced almost 50% of electricity in 2025. Ireland is screwed because it is an island.

Following up on this. Finland is by far the euro area country most decoupled from gas. Wholesale electricity prices in Portugal and Lithuania are largely uncorrelated with gas prices. Italy, Ireland, and Greece will be among the most negatively impacted if gas prices continue rising.

Our taxes are being used to repatriate people who moved to slave-based economies to avoid paying taxes.

Totalmente de acuerdo, pero tanto para el despliegue del almacenamiento como para la electrificación de otros sectores, no tener los precios de la electricidad por las nubes como Italia ayuda mucho.

One learnt its lesson in 2022, one didn't.

Another way to see this: in 2018, Spanish and Italian wholesale prices were almost identical. By 2025, the gap is abysmal. While Spain had only a slightly higher renewable share in 2018, by 2025 the difference is huge.

As Italy approves a decree to reimburse gas plants for carbon costs and gas prices jump 80%, it’s worth recalling that in 2018 both Italian and Spanish power prices were tightly linked to gas. Since then, Spain has largely decoupled, mainly thanks to renewables. Italy hasn’t.

Italy curbs installation of solar panels on agricultural land Italy's rightwing coalition on Monday passed rules curbing the installation of solar panels on agricultural land, ministers said, in a move that triggered criticism as it could undermine Rome's decarb...

Very interesting, thanks! While this seems like an important factor, it does not seem that the current government is facilitating in any way the deployment of renewables though:
www.reuters.com/sustainabili...

En quin sentit?

Today's average price in Italy is 125.08 EUR/MWh, in Spain it is 28.43 EUR/MWh (unweighted by load). The expansion of renewable energy capacity in Spain is protecting its electricity market from geopolitical shocks.

Sure, I'll take a look at it this evening!

It is GW. The figure in GWh: