There’s not a ton of KYC these companies do. Doubt they know identities of most whales
01.03.2026 02:52
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There’s not a ton of KYC these companies do. Doubt they know identities of most whales
The signal value of irregular bets on geopolitical outcomes will evaporate. For every insider profiting at risk of exposing classified info, equally plausible intelligence services place bets, knowing markets are watched, to induce adversaries to reveal how they’d adapt (e.g., force posture shifts)
Never wanted Canadian citizenship more
We have just witnessed state security services execute a protestor in cold blood.
If they can get away with it, we have entered a new, exceptionally dangerous stage in America’s authoritarian slide.
@alphaville.ft.com also has a nice piece on this, which comes to a similar conclusion
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
abolish ice is the moderate position to be honest. whichever candidate promises to nuremberg the ice agents has my vote at this point
Move slightly to the side or murder someone, tough choices ICE officers have to make daily.
Do historical analogies shape public opinion about foreign policymaking? Read the latest research by @chriswblair.bsky.social, Paul Lendway, and CMIST's @joshschwartz.bsky.social in the Journal of Conflict Resolution. journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
Historical analogies are omnipresent in foreign policy debates—like accusations that Trump's Russia-Ukraine peace plan is akin to appeasing Hitler. But are analogies an effective rhetorical tool? Check out my new article w/ @chriswblair.bsky.social & Paul Lendway.
doi.org/10.1177/0022...
They wear masks, they carry no identifying badges, they drive vehicles without license plates, and they disappear immigrants into opaque prisons.
If ICE’s enforcement operations are secretive it is fair to characterize them as secret police.
Naomi Ellemers has a nice annual review on gender stereotypes, which could be a good jumping off point: doi.org/10.1146/annu...
I was quite pessimistic about the trajectory of American democracy in my last response to a Brightline Watch survey.
Clearly I was not sufficiently pessimistic.
This looks so interesting! Congrats
Our article on civilian harm and military legitimacy is now available at @iojournal.bsky.social. We believe it has timely implications for events playing out now in the Middle East and beyond.
From North Carolina to Northern Iraq, working with Jon and Mara has been a truly rewarding experience!
STAGGERING: This new study of 133 countries is the first to estimate the impact of all USAID’s work. In 2 decades, it has saved *92M* lives. Current cuts, if not reversed, are forecast to cost up to *14M* lives thru 2030. www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
I just emailed you! Happy to help debug code offline if it'd be helpful.
I'd try using reghdfe rather than xtreg
🚨 “Good Description” with @annagbusse.bsky.social 🚨
What sets 'good' description apart from 'mere' description?
We develop a framework for evaluating descriptive research, whether we are doing it as scholars or assessing it as readers.
Two main contributions...
🔗📄 tinyurl.com/gooddesc
Ah, thought I shared the gift link. Try this: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Agreed! I think this move is a political gambit to inflate deportation numbers.
My quote in the article touches on this - paying people to return home is not likely to keep them from attempting to migrate again
And even if the admin doesn’t care about conflict in origin countries, we should!
A new Trump administration policy offers cash to migrants undertaking "self-deportation." It was a pleasure to speak with @bloomberg.com on some of the potential pitfalls of this approach, building on my research on a cash-for-repatriation scheme in Pakistan
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
This dataset is truly awesome. Check out this example map (especially Latin America) from their report introducing the dataset. Thanks to the authors & contributors! @chriswblair.bsky.social @guygrossman.bsky.social
The most revolting Oval Office presser since Feb. 28 (the Zelensky one).
Even just hitting a few of the lowlights of this will leave you sickened and dismayed.
BUT it's also clarifying. Anyone who has been talking about "the road to authoritarianism" can stop that now. The road is behind us.
As my colleagues and I wrote in the Daily Princetonian last week, we all have to stand up for our science, and not accept this attack on universities. www.dailyprincetonian.com/article/2025...
What I feel is ashamed.
Watching Putin’s little stooges try to bully Zelenskyy in our goddamned White House is pretty repulsive.
Title: Refugee Repatriation and Conflict: Evidence from the Maximum Pressure Sanctions Abstract: How does refugee return shape conflict in migrants’ destination communities? We argue that conditions inducing repatriation bear critically on the consequences of return. When refugees return because of worsening conditions in host countries, they are often marginalized and destitute. In this setting, mass return risks amplifying conflict in returnee-receiving communities. We test this theory leveraging the Trump administration’s sudden re-imposition of sanctions on Iran in 2018. These “Maximum Pressure” sanctions decimated the Iranian economy and spurred mass return of Afghan refugees from Iran. Exploiting historical returnee settlement patterns and the plausibly exogenous timing of the sanctions, we estimate the causal effect of large-scale refugee repatriation on violence. We find that the returnee influx increased insurgent violence in returnees’ destination communities. We find suggestive evidence for an opportunity cost mechanism. Sanctions-induced currency depreciation reduced household incomes in returnee-receiving areas, lowering reservation wages and driving up insurgent recruitment. We also find evidence that Iran retaliated against the sanctions by escalating support for Afghan insurgent factions. While insurgent violence increased in repatriation communities, there was no effect on communal conflict.
🚨🚨🚨🚨 New WP (with @benckrick.bsky.social @austinlw.bsky.social) available at the ESOC working paper series:
esoc.princeton.edu/wp39
Trump team aims to bankrupt Iran with new "maximum pressure" plan
In the US, amidst a demoralizing political news cycle, the Trump admin has reinitiated the Maximum Pressure strategy on Iran, imposing renewed sanctions.
Our findings suggest growing pressure on Iran could result in another wave of mass Afghan repatriation, further destabilizing Afghanistan.
Danish plan to repatriate Syrian refugees sparks controversy
For policy, a number of recent developments are relevant.
Several European countries are contemplating forcibly repatriating Syrian refugees. Achieving Syrian returns by restricting hosting conditions for Syrian refugees may exacerbate instability in Syrian areas that receive returnees from Europe.
