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Jason "Red5" Lyall

@jaylyall

Prof @Dartmouth. Director, FieldLab. Carnegie Fellow. Inequality and military effectiveness, war, humanitarian aid, USAID, sci fi. Author, DIVIDED ARMIES (2020, http://amzn.to/2Y80f25). πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ #FirstGen #VermontZen Website: www.jasonlyall.com

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Latest posts by Jason "Red5" Lyall @jaylyall

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Exclusive: US investigation points to likely US responsibility in Iran school strike, sources say U.S. military investigators believe it is likely that U.S. forces were responsible for an apparent strike on an Iranian girls' school that killed scores of children on Saturday but have not yet reache...

US investigation points to likely US responsibility in Iran school strike, sources say

06.03.2026 02:36 πŸ‘ 91 πŸ” 52 πŸ’¬ 5 πŸ“Œ 2
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Exclusive: US investigation points to likely US responsibility in Iran school strike, sources say U.S. military investigators believe it is likely that U.S. forces were responsible for an apparent strike on an Iranian girls' school that killed scores of children on Saturday but have not yet reache...

US investigation points to likely US responsibility in Iran school strike, sources say

06.03.2026 02:36 πŸ‘ 91 πŸ” 52 πŸ’¬ 5 πŸ“Œ 2
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a man is walking down a hallway carrying a backpack . ALT: a man is walking down a hallway carrying a backpack .

Only 2 more classes left to teach, and 82 papers/exams left to grade, before I get my first sabbatical in 9 years

06.03.2026 01:58 πŸ‘ 31 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

yeah no shit, we have essentially validated the iranian government’s whole worldview for the past 40 years in 3 days

05.03.2026 21:42 πŸ‘ 6629 πŸ” 1393 πŸ’¬ 74 πŸ“Œ 25

These statistics literally mean fuck all because they are measuring efficiency, not effectiveness

06.03.2026 00:27 πŸ‘ 699 πŸ” 95 πŸ’¬ 39 πŸ“Œ 10

"We're fighting to win the war"

We are a week in and absolutely nobody has any idea what the political aim we're attempting to achieve is. Win what? Literally what are we fighting to achieve at the moment.

I have absolutely no idea atm if we are close to winning because I have no idea what we want

06.03.2026 00:24 πŸ‘ 890 πŸ” 135 πŸ’¬ 59 πŸ“Œ 14
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To the surprise of some officials in Kyiv, no one from the U.S. bothered to ask Ukraine to share its expertise in how to defend against drones before starting the offensive in Iran, Simon Shuster and Nancy A. Youssef report. theatln.tc/AFPCstm6

06.03.2026 01:15 πŸ‘ 287 πŸ” 97 πŸ’¬ 24 πŸ“Œ 24

No, it’s worse.

It’s a war without a political objective.

Plenty of wars have opened without a clear plan to reconcile desired ends with available means, we may be the first country to go to war without even a basic concept of victory.

War for the memes. War for the vibes. War for the Warriors.

05.03.2026 12:54 πŸ‘ 780 πŸ” 199 πŸ’¬ 37 πŸ“Œ 14

That's not true. But Zheng He burned his entire Treasure Fleet to prevent Chotiner from reaching China

05.03.2026 04:42 πŸ‘ 36 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1
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Israel expects weeks-long war against Iran Officials and analysts say joint operation with US seeks to destroy key capabilities of Islamic regime

The dangers of tethering your strategy to an ally that has a very different endgame than you

β€œIf we can have a coup, great. If we can have people on the streets, great. If we can have a civil war, great. Israel couldn’t care less about the future . . . [or] the stability of Iran"

05.03.2026 00:53 πŸ‘ 23 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

This is sickening. That someone took the time to edit in "+100" hit points for each bomb strike is just the cherry on a shit sundae

04.03.2026 22:50 πŸ‘ 164 πŸ” 40 πŸ’¬ 5 πŸ“Œ 1

This is sickening. That someone took the time to edit in "+100" hit points for each bomb strike is just the cherry on a shit sundae

04.03.2026 22:50 πŸ‘ 164 πŸ” 40 πŸ’¬ 5 πŸ“Œ 1

That's a lot of cancer research

04.03.2026 20:30 πŸ‘ 129 πŸ” 38 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 0

That's a lot of cancer research

04.03.2026 20:30 πŸ‘ 129 πŸ” 38 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 0

So glad that the US Congress thoroughly considered and publicly debated the costs of this war before voting to authorize it.

04.03.2026 20:17 πŸ‘ 121 πŸ” 38 πŸ’¬ 5 πŸ“Œ 0
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Small-town political scientist here, just with a friendly reminder that yes, this is a war (Congressman Greg Landsman edition)

www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a...

04.03.2026 19:54 πŸ‘ 21 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 1
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Satellite imagery shows strike that destroyed Iranian school was more extensive than first reported The images suggest that precision munitions struck other buildings, including a clinic that was also inside the complex.

EXCLUSIVE: The strike that destroyed a school in Minab, Iran was larger than has been previously reported. A nearby clinic was also hit.

The evidence suggests a precision strike against an IRGC base that was adjacent to the school.

www.npr.org/2026/03/04/n...

04.03.2026 17:51 πŸ‘ 257 πŸ” 117 πŸ’¬ 17 πŸ“Œ 21

The US Navy literally just torpedoed and sunk an Iranian frigate in the Indian Ocean, off the *coast of Sri Lanka,* killing 80+

04.03.2026 15:42 πŸ‘ 158 πŸ” 69 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 3
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Anthropic’s AI tool Claude central to U.S. campaign in Iran, amid a bitter feud Anthropic’s AI tool Claude is playing a key role in the U.S. military’s campaign in Iran, amid a bitter fight with the Pentagon over the terms of its use in war.

US used Anthropic’s AI tool Claude, along with Maven Smart, another AI system built by Palantir, to choose 100s of targets in the opening day of airstrikes against Iran

Claude + Maven Smart were used to suggest "hundreds of targets, issue precise location coordinates, and prioritize" those targets

04.03.2026 16:19 πŸ‘ 32 πŸ” 28 πŸ’¬ 8 πŸ“Œ 9
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Anthropic’s AI tool Claude central to U.S. campaign in Iran, amid a bitter feud Anthropic’s AI tool Claude is playing a key role in the U.S. military’s campaign in Iran, amid a bitter fight with the Pentagon over the terms of its use in war.

US used Anthropic’s AI tool Claude, along with Maven Smart, another AI system built by Palantir, to choose 100s of targets in the opening day of airstrikes against Iran

Claude + Maven Smart were used to suggest "hundreds of targets, issue precise location coordinates, and prioritize" those targets

04.03.2026 16:19 πŸ‘ 32 πŸ” 28 πŸ’¬ 8 πŸ“Œ 9

The US Navy literally just torpedoed and sunk an Iranian frigate in the Indian Ocean, off the *coast of Sri Lanka,* killing 80+

04.03.2026 15:42 πŸ‘ 158 πŸ” 69 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 3

The Pentagon only speaks to fringe right wing media outlets. Meanwhile, Trump calls for Iranians to rise up against their government by posting on Truth Social to a nation experiencing an internet blackout.

04.03.2026 14:48 πŸ‘ 44 πŸ” 12 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 0

β€œThe terms this war will be set by us at every step” reflects an ignorance of the entire human experience with warfare.

1,000 far right podcasters drinking 1,000 energy drinks typing into 1,000 iPhones for 1,000 years would struggle to conjure such an extraordinary statement.

Remarkable, really.

04.03.2026 14:37 πŸ‘ 364 πŸ” 70 πŸ’¬ 16 πŸ“Œ 9

This at the UN, not NATO. Iran is not in NATO. Mike Waltz is the US Ambassador to the UN, and he's threatening Iran's UN Ambassador, who is explicitly not on US soil when he's at the United Nations. Mike Waltz knows that and is behaving like a lawless thug anyway.

04.03.2026 13:25 πŸ‘ 530 πŸ” 163 πŸ’¬ 15 πŸ“Œ 5
04.03.2026 13:18 πŸ‘ 20 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

This cartoonishly childish Hegseth persona is an insult to the American military, the American people, the Iranian people, and just about everybody affected by this war. It is absolutely incredible, in the literal sense, that this man is at the hinge of the chain of command in this spiraling war.

04.03.2026 13:08 πŸ‘ 1369 πŸ” 315 πŸ’¬ 43 πŸ“Œ 18

Dude's like a cartoon character

04.03.2026 13:10 πŸ‘ 29 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0
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Good morning from Vermont, which has apparently received all the snow this winter #VermontZen

04.03.2026 12:40 πŸ‘ 29 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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What Trump’s War With Iran Has Already Cost Taxpayers The military operation had already cost more than approximately $600 million before the first strikes were even carried out.

"cursory" estimates suggest the US has already spent $1 billion on airstrikes in Iran. No money for health care, though

04.03.2026 04:35 πŸ‘ 64 πŸ” 32 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 2
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IRGC Destroys Second US THAAD System in Gulf, Wipes Out UAE Radar and $1.1 Billion Qatar Early Warning Shield β€” Iran Declares Missile Dominance - Defence Security Asia IRGC precision strikes reportedly destroy a second US THAAD system, its UAE radar, and Qatar’s $1.1 billion early warning system, exposing fractures in America’s Gulf missile defence architecture and ...

so Iran has apparently knocked out and destroyed / disabled to some extent two U.S. THAAD batteries

This is a massive deal. Aside from the expense, this is not a weapon system we just have a ton of lying around. You don't replace these easily.

defencesecurityasia.com/en/irgc-dest...

04.03.2026 04:26 πŸ‘ 4555 πŸ” 1464 πŸ’¬ 227 πŸ“Œ 280