MISLEADING: A new academic paper by @qmul.bsky.social has attracted significant media attention by claiming that EVs & heat pumps deliver no proven carbon savings in UK ahead of 2030 clean power target - and should therefore be postponed.
Here is why this paper should never have been published.🧵
Of course, QBE's call to ensure that solar panels are properly installed and maintained is important and I completely agree
But reporting this without putting figures in context could amount to scare-mongering, and might display disappointing anti-renewables bias.
Indeed, the fact that there were ELEVEN fires a day caused by "faulty fuel supplies" indicates that diesel generators, oil-fired boilers etc. aka fossil fuels could be more dangerous to Brits than solar panels
But, that detail was absent from these news stories...
In any case, I hope this illustrates that "one solar panel fire every two days" is comparably few - there were FOUR chip pan fires A DAY in 2024
and you don't see any headlines about the dangers of fish and chip shops!
The government's fire statistics data isn't granular enough to identify solar panel fires - QBE obtained their figures through FOIs - and it's not clear which of the government's categories would include solar panels, so I've listed them separately.
These news stories hinge on a finding by insurer QBE that there were 171 fires "linked to" solar panels in the UK in 2024, up from 107 in 2022.
Here's how this compares to other causes of fire:
The UK press has seemingly panicked about solar panel fires over the last few days
How concerned do we need to be? The numbers suggest... not very 🧵
Put simply, renewables are lowering bills by billions per year and more of them will push older, less efficient gas off the system even more, lowering costs further
It would be good if this hidden saving was reflected in discussions about the cost of renewables...one can dream!
There's been some criticism of strike prices in the upcoming renewables auction.
But without the wind we already have on the system, the wholesale electricity price would actually be HIGHER than the strike prices for most technologies
& which may well fall anyway.
2) These savings to wholesale electricity prices are about 🟰 to support for wind farms from "green levies".
3) Renewables are pushing down the amount of time that gas sets the price of all generation - from 97% to 85%.
The results:
1) Wind farms cut the day-ahead wholesale price by up to a quarter (25%) in 2024, about £25/MWh
compared to if there was no/little wind, and gas instead
this hidden saving is not being considered by those who call to scrap renewables.
As wind & solar are cheaper, running off free sunshine & wind, the more renewables we have, the better
As they push older, less efficient gas power plants off the system and from being the marginal generator
The £ implications of this have been v hard to quantify...until now.
How are renewables lowering wholesale electricity prices?
Gas is normally the "marginal" generator, filling the last bit of supply to meet demand and it's price is high comparably
In UK, all generation on day-ahead market - even if cheaper - gets this final "marginal price".
Lots of talk about the "cost of renewables"
But have they actually LOWERED the price of electricity we pay TODAY?
TLDR; yes, by around a quarter, or £25/MWh
That's why it's a mistake to stop investment in them (*cough* certain politicians).
eciu.net/analysis/rep...
Some highly questionable industry assertions about ‘tiebacks’ and new oil & gas exploration licensing covered by the Sunday Times this morning, incl. the volume of potential production & the impact on jobs & supply chains. Let's take a closer look: www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...
Upgrading the electricity grid is a down payment on cheaper, more efficient system in future - increasingly using British wind & solar over imported gas.
Yes, we need to invest in the grid after decades of under-investment.
But today's grid upgrade is tomorrow's bill reduction.
4) Policy & nuclear costs up £18
£6 for so-called "green" levies, which help to pay for things like insulation into low-income households and the Warm Homes Discount
And nuclear costs up £12 to pay for continuously delayed & over-budget Sizewell C.
...and transport more British power from its source to our homes. It’s a necessary investment to reduce the amount of imported gas we need
AND reduces constraint payments, where we pay Scottish wind farms to turn off and gas to power up down South.
eciu.net/media/press-...
3) Electricity network costs up £40 (£30 for transmission):
- Some for maintenance and operation (business-as-usual)
- Some for building new infrastructure, pylons and cables etc, to allow new renewables to come online...
www.ofgem.gov.uk/sites/defaul...
2) GAS NETWORK costs up £53 - the biggest chunk:
- For maintaining and operating gas networks
- Increased depreciation (paying off networks investments more quickly)
Don't know how this is a 'net zero cost' as suggested by the Telegraph this morning...
Industry experts @CornwallInsight predict that bills will go up around £100 in April 2026. Why?
1) Wholesale costs down £12 on previous quarter, as gas prices fall from peak levels BUT remain above pre-crisis levels
In Feb, they reached a 2-year high and are still volatile.
Why are bills going up by £100 in April?
R4 Today's Nick Robinson claimed "People say bills are going to go up... because *you’re determined not to use fossil fuels*"
With many households still struggling with the cost of living, let's look at what's *actually* happening...
Some politicians & the industry say max extraction from the N. Sea = energy price security
But a few billion barrels of oil equivalent, even if discovered and economically extracted (unlikely), won't make any difference.
eciu.net/media/press-...
Huge O&G companies own what they get out the ground & sell it to highest bidder
Any new fields are potential liabilities, stranded assets as the world transitions, leading to a chaotic decline
Helping no-one, inc those working in N Sea supply chains.
bsky.app/profile/tors...
As Prof. Gavin Bridge says: "Potential extraction will be from small, high-cost & risky fields...their development inconsistent with a managed decline while requiring risky subsidies and deregulation that benefit oil and gas companies, not the public."
bsky.app/profile/tess...
Plus, the potential resources in this report are globally insignificant
And any speculative discoveries don't change the geological fact that the North Sea IS RUNNING OUT
What's left is mostly oil - 70%
We export the majority of our oil - 80%
bsky.app/profile/tess...
OEUK's numbers are speculative, relying on unlikely discoveries.
Over the last 15y, hundreds of North Sea licenses have led to just 5 discoveries, with only 3 producing just a few weeks' worth of O&G
NO impact on bills as prices are set internationally.
bsky.app/profile/jess...
OEUK claim that O&G production could increase from 4.3bn barrels of oil equivalent to 7.5bn
...with changes to "incentives" aka subsidies and scrapping the Windfall Tax (which is hugely popular with voters) etc
This differs to the *official* estimates from the regulator 👀
How much oil and gas is REALLY left in the North Sea? 🤔
According to a new report by oil and gas lobby group @oeuk.bsky.social, loads!!!!
*As long as they get subsidies and deregulation*
Is this true? And if so, would it lower bills?
Let's investigate...
This £3000 added by wholesale prices is 7x (‼️) the costs of renewables schemes over the same period
(such as the Renewables Obligation, Feed-In Tariffs, & CfD agreements).
