Tommaso Pavone

How have lawyers, lobbyists & consultants reshaped regulation/public power in the EU? On March 2 @ 3PM, the Centre for Study of France & Francophone World @utoronto.ca hosts @lolaavril.bsky.social (CNRS/Sorbonne) for “Transforming the Regulatory State in Europe," Info/register!: tinyurl.com/3mkhk3f9

Today in Encode/Decode @rdanielkelemen.bsky.social and @tommasopavone.bsky.social examine the consequences of #politicizing #international #institutions and the trade-offs facing executives double-hatting as #prosecutors and #policymakers. Read how data played a vital role: doi.org/10.1353/wp.2...

How is justice rebuilt after terrorism? Can a trial shoulder this burden? On Feb 25 @ 5PM, the Centre for the Study of France & Francophone World (CEFMF) @utoronto.ca hosts Sandrine Lefranc (CNRS/Sciences Po) for “Judgment Without Appeal,” on the Bataclan Trial. Info/register!: tinyurl.com/4rpm439a

Great analysis, as always, by @davidcarretta.bsky.social, on the Commission's omissions. With a reference to a very important paper by @rdanielkelemen.bsky.social and @tommasopavone.bsky.social.

The morning after the biggest snowstorm in modern history for the city of #Toronto - sights from the Annex neighborhood #ONstorm #ONwx

Caution when comparing these #s w/ those from grassy surfaces. My deck is the roof of an apartment below, so radiational heating melts snow faster than elsewhere. This AM there were ~5-6” of snow on grass, but only 2” on my deck. Need to subtract these from total #. Drifting also makes things hard

Snow is wrapping up in Toronto. On my deck, there were about 2" of icy snow on the ground before the storm started. Three measurements to try to avoid/account for drifting averaged 26.16". Take away 2" but also account for compacting, & downtown #Toronto probs got 24-26" (60-66cms) #ONwx #ONstorm

7:00pm. Well into all-time record territory at this point #Toronto #ONwx #ONstorm

Extraordinary sights from @utoronto.ca and the city of #Toronto right now; incredible snowfall rates, and the all-time snowfall record in jeopardy for parts of the city. Snow squall will begin drifting south, but not before dumping even more snow #ONwx #ONstorm

It's still going at the same intense rate... Some parts of the city may make a run at the all-time record for #Toronto #ONstorm #ONwx

The city of #Toronto & @utoronto.ca campus midway through what will surely be a historic winter storm. No doubt, the most intense snowfall rates I've ever experienced. The lake effect snow band is just sitting over the city, and still has many more inches in it before it drifts south #ONwx $ONstorm

Really intense snowfall rates in #Toronto as the winter storm and a lake effect snow squall merge over the GTA. 5-8cms/hr rates according to Environmental Canada looks right #ONwx #ONstorm

The high-res models all agree with Environ Canada for the Sun-Sun night Winter Storm: An average of 12”/30cms of fluffy snow across the GTA/ #Toronto, w/ peaks of 14-15”/40cms where lake effect snow bands persist most. Away from lake enhancement, 6-10”/15-25cms for rest of SE Ontario #ONstorm #ONwx

Sunday-Sun night winter storm for S. Ontario & the NE US is finally coming into the window of the high-resolution models. Here’s three w/ good agreement for #Toronto: ~10” (25cms) with locally 12-13” (30-33cms) where lake enhancement focuses. A mess for #NYC: models all over the place #ONwx #ONstorm

Noticeable shift southeast/reduction in snow totals in the latest model runs. Soon, we will get into the time window for high-res models (more accurate for short-term forecasts). For Toronto/GTA, lots rides on lake-enhancement, which is notoriously local/difficult to predict #ONwx #ONstorm

Another week, another major winter storm to impact the Northeast US & southeast Ontario on Sun-Mon. Again, the computer model spread is huge: Look @ the implications for NYC & Toronto! Here's 2 outlier & 2 in-the-middle scenarios. Best bet IMO is the ICON but shifts/refinements likely #ONwx #ONstorm

In 2025 @chrishillion.bsky.social, @ascherz.bsky.social & I proposed a theory of "democratic frontsliding" & "restorative disobedience" to confront recalcitrant "autocratic enclaves" & restore democracies that backslid. Poland is our key case. Read/share our new/improved paper! tinyurl.com/mrx7kep9

This is the best speech, just from a pure rhetoric perspective - its sophistication and persuasiveness - that I've seen a politician deliver in a good long while. Really recommend watching or reading the whole thing.

Final tally near the @utoronto.ca St. George campus is around/just shy of 11” (27-28cms), though difficult to measure/to avoid drifting. Just 10 miles north of downtown near Vaughan, where the heavy snow band lingered all day, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some 20” reports (50 cms) #ONwx #ONstorm

The computer models shown are the HRRR, NAM-3km, RAP, and RDPS

As we go to sleep, Toronto may be in for a historic snowstorm & a huge forecast bust. Evening run of the computer models go from low end of 10-12” (25-30cms) to high end of 17-20” (43-50cms) of snow. Even now, Environ Canada’s snowfall warning only forecasts 10-20cms. We’ll see! 🫣 #ONwx #ONstorm

AM update: The models (HRR, NAM-4km, RDPS, RAP) are converging on 11-15” (28-38cms) of fluffy snow tonight/Thurs in Toronto. We’re 12hrs away yet Environ Canada still hasn’t changed its forecast/issued snowfall warnings. Either the models are crazy or this’ll be a big forecast bust #ONwx #ONstorm

Toronto friends: on Wed nite-Thurs the official forecast from Environ Canada is flurries/2cms of snow. But some computer models now predict a snowstorm as temps plummet & snow/liquid ratios skyrocket. Look @ this insane spread just 24hrs out: 4 models forecasting from 0.8”/2cms to 18.9”/48cms😵‍💫 #ONwx

👀 67% increase in the number of applications to the Toronto political science PhD program from last year, 92% increase from 2024 👀

BJPolS abstract discussing the impact of international courts like the European Court of Justice on individual rights and civil society, highlighting their role in promoting legal claims and supporting networks.

From November 2025 -

Leveling and Spotlighting: How the European Court of Justice Favors the Weak to Promote Its Legitimacy - cup.org/4oWD6ZT

- @silje-hermansen.bsky.social, @tommasopavone.bsky.social & @louisabo.bsky.social

#OpenAccess

We are delighted to announce that @tommasopavone.bsky.social, Caleb Pomeroy and Nicole Bernhardt have each received Connaught New Researcher Awards for 2024-25! www.politics.utoronto.ca/news/connaug...

can't wait to dig into the data with @tommasopavone.bsky.social. This is probably one of the largest survey experiments ever run in Slovakia, a country you will not find analysed in the big journals very often

Stakes are high. Evidence of inoculation would suggest that citizens can become more vigilant liberal democrats by learning from history. Yet null results would alert us that a backsliding past-even one reversed by citizens-may not serve as a reservoir of democratic resilience. Stay tuned! ~TP & MO