".. My overarching theme remains: Fish Where the Fish Are for now .. and that is in Semis/Semicaps/Optical/Memory/HDDs - participants in the generational upgrade .. $NVDA, $LRCX, $COHR, $GLW, $APH, ASML, AVGO to name a few …. i think it’s way too ‘early’ to think differently."
- B of A TMT desk
A weak end to an otherwise resilient year
📉Real US #GDP disappoints in Q4 2025 w/ 1pt gov shutdown drag
🔶+0.7% q/q
✅+2.0% y/y
🛒Cons +2.0%
👩💻Biz invest +2.2%
🏘️Resid invest -0.5%
📦Trade -0.2pt
🏗️Inventories +0.3pt
🏦Gov -5.8%
📈#Inflation
🔺2.8% y/y
🔺Core 2.9% y/y
I know the volumes in the options of the Russell are small but since 3/2 the put/call ratio on the RUT has gotten wildly skewed toward too many puts.
starting 3/2:
2.12
11.48
2.77
3.0
6.76
3.1
2.5
1.78
3.65
"Honda Scraps Plans for E.V.s While Start-Ups Forge Ahead" www.nytimes.com/2026/03/13/b...
"Honda said it expected the cost of switching direction on electric vehicles to total 2.5 trillion yen, or $15.7 billion, this year and in years to come" 😲
‘On Thursday, a gauge of expectations for inflation over the next year, known as the one-year break-even inflation rate, jumped to 4.62%. That is the highest level since June 2022, when the annual rate of the consumer-price index peaked at 9.1%.’ www.marketwatch.com/story/a-key-...
$VIX at 25.8 is not fun, historically
S&P 500 12-month forward returns by VIX level
I’d be curious to see how they got below $80 avg. Do they assume conflict ending very soon or economy weakening to a pt that it keeps a cap on the price
BofA: Oil hits consumption with a 3-4 quarter lag
Goldman sees US payroll growth near +45k for the rest of the year
GOLDMAN: “.. we have raised our year-over-year December 2026 headline PCE inflation forecast by 0.8pp to 2.9% ..
“.. lowered our 2026 Q4/Q4 GDP growth forecast by 0.3pp to 2.2% ..
“.. Our forecast for the peak unemployment rate is now 4.6%, up from 4.44% ..”
US CPI #inflation mixed ahead of #oil shock
📈#CPI +0.3% in Feb
✅Core +0.2%
🍲Food +0.4%
⛽️Energy +0.6%
✅Core gds 0.1%
🚗New 0%
🚘Used -0.4%
👕Apparel 1.3%
✅Core svc 0.3%
🏘️Shelter 0.2%
🏡Rent 0.1%
🏠OER 0.2%
🏨Hotel 3.5%
🏥Med 0.6%
🛫Air 1.4%
📜Car insur -0.3%
JPMorgan marking down loan portfolios of private credit groups
www.ft.com/content/1d4e...
Employee sentiment dropped again in February. In the Glassdoor Employee Confidence Index, 44.3% of employees reported a positive business outlook for their employers, down from 45.9% last February.
Tech has seen the largest YoY drop of any industry (-7.1pp).
www.glassdoor.com/blog/glassdo...
$AMZN is in the market with an 11 part USD bond offering an an 8 part EUR bond offering. Size is pretty punchy.
*AMAZON TARGETS $25B-$30B IN DOLLAR BONDS, €10B IN EURO OFFERING
For context they only had $66bn in long-term debt as-of the end of the year (though also $87bn of LT lease liabilities).
DB Reid: In the US, the labour share of income is already at an all-time low, so again it wouldn’t take much to create a significant political backlash if AI further impacted labour…
DEUTSCHE: ".. we have still not come across a single Software company that expects a negative revenue effect from AI in 2026. .. We think AI disruption worries have peaked. We upgrade Tech from Underweight to Neutral and turn overweight Software within Tech." $IGV
Finally, upper-income households catch a break:
“Average tax refunds have been larger for higher-income households so far in 2026.” -BofA
Market expectations of a June rate cut from the Fed have fallen to around 40%, close to their lowest levels in months following the run-up in oil prices, according to CME Group
$4/gallon gas is extremely affordable, historically speaking.. it's really not a big deal.. but there will be lots of whining (if we get there.. looks like we could top out around $3.80)
Chart from Jeff Weniger at @WisdomTreeFunds
Year to date, the S&P 500 is down 1.5%.
In the same period last year, it was down 2.4%.
S&P over the past 3 months below. We went through: an entire earnings season, an attack on Venezuela, a threatened attack on Greenland, a meltdown in software stocks, and now an all out war with Iran.
And yet... the high/low range here is only 2.9%. That's really something.
War is not kind. It is mean (reversion)
sherwood.news/markets/the-... (feat. @peark.es )
Chart of ISM Services PMI for the past 10 years
Chart of ISM Services PMI New Orders index for the past 10 years
Chart of ISM Services PMI Employment index for the past 10 years
Chart of ISM Services PMI Prices index and ISM Manufacturing prices index for the past 10 years
Don't say I didn't warn you. ISM Services highest since 2022 with New Orders accelerating and employment trending higher. Unlike ISM Manufacturing earlier this week, the prices index fell to an 11-month low. Manufacturing prices hit a post-2022 high.
Flows to five Korea-specific US ETFs in the 5y ending last June: $-396mm
Flows since: $7.1bn
Software Stocks YTD Performance vs. Drawdown from All-Time High
58k of the 63k private employment gain was from Edu & Health Services ADP
Financial, professional, biz services... -28k
Donald Trump’s Iran strike conflicts with his aspirations for ultra-low interest rates. Markets have raised their rate expectations for the next couple years.
My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart
GS: Earnings Drive US Gains; Japan and Europe Lead on Valuations
Could be the biggest 2-day USA equity alpha since September 2008 $VTI vs $VEU
+440bps as of this morning
Energy (+25%) is the strongest sector as we enter the 3rd month of 2026.
Consumer Discretionary (-2.1%), Technology (-3.6%) and Financials (-6.1%) are the dogs.
