I think the overlooked story from the GDP data is that per capita growth was 1% in 2025. It had flatlined in 2024 and markedly fell in 2023.
20.02.2026 12:24
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I think the overlooked story from the GDP data is that per capita growth was 1% in 2025. It had flatlined in 2024 and markedly fell in 2023.
But if they do, they’ll be the ones out of touch with British public opinion. Currently, the people out of touch are the ‘Bluesky left’, for want of a better term.
Remember that the probable aim is to keep Reform-curious *Labour* voters on board, not to appeal to Reform’s 2024 vote.
It was partly overshadowed by the Budget. If they get it down to the “tens of thousands”, which now seems strikingly plausible, it will be hard to ignore.
The aim probably isn’t to appease Reform’s “base”, it’s to persuade Reform-curious Labour voters that they should stick with them.
I find it difficult to believe that it won’t benefit Starmer to be able to go into the election debates saying “I reduced migration to the tens of thousands”.
A UK wealth tax sounds simple: "tax the super‑rich, fund public services"
But it's not.
Our 16,000 word deep‑dive shows revenues are fragile, it puts growth, investment and jobs at risk, and there's no revenue before 2029.
Here’s the evidence:
Indeed.
The U.K. Trade Deal Screws American Consumers
Residents of the United Kingdom will get lower tariffs, while Americans are stuck paying higher ones.
reason.com/2025/05/09/t...
The reason a lot of very poor countries have higher tariffs is in part because they lack the state capacity to collect other taxes, or the affluent citizens to pay them.
It's easier logistically to collect revenue at a few border crossings than from every business or employee in the country.
I was going to get the train today. But I am increasingly concerned at the deficit I’m running with Great Northern Rail. I buy a lot from them and they purchase nothing from me.
Tempted to apply a 20% tariff. Sure my tickets will cost 20% more but it might mean I buy fewer and reduce the deficit.
Why build pylons when we can put cables underground?
Here’s why: Pylons come in at between £2.2–£4.2 million per kilometre, while the cheapest form of underground cabling tech has a lifetime cost between £10.2–£24.1m *per kilometre*
capx.co/power-withou...
Real wages in Britain are now back on—or above—their pre-Covid trend across the income distribution, and have been since early '24
🇪🇺🇬🇧 Through my first set of meetings in Brussels. The praise for Starmer is overwhelming: “What he has managed to do is not just good for him. It's good for all of us. Absolutely top notch. This is the UK at its best. The UK we have always admired.
I don't think most people realise how completely our military and intelligence services are entwined with the US.
We may well need to become more independent, but it's not something that can happen overnight.
UK Prime Minister Starmer hugs Zelensky as he welcomes him to 10 Downing Street.
This is how you welcome the leader of the free world.
Fmr NATO Policy Head, Fabrice Pothier: "We need to cool things down. Zelensky must restore some dialogue with US. Unfortunately, there's no alternative. If the US were to decide tomorrow to cut off intelligence & satellite connectivity, effect on Ukrainian military operations would be debilitating."
BREAKING: Prime Minister Keir Starmer has spoken to both President Trump & President Zelenskyy tonight
No 10 said: “The Prime Minister retains unwavering support for Ukraine, and is doing all he can to find a path forward to a lasting peace based on sovereignty and security for Ukraine” 👏
Zelensky wants the relationship with the US to be repaired. That matters more than condemning what they did in public.
He was on the phone to both Zelensky and Trump and reiterated his support for Ukraine.
It seems suboptimal to make Musk’s platform the be all and end all of geopolitics and diplomacy.
A plurality of *2019* Labour voters were in favour of cutting the foreign aid budget in 2020.
Labour are losing just as many, if not more, voters to Reform and the Conservatives as they are to the Liberal Democrats and the Greens.
Moreover, Reform are in second place to Labour in 89 constituencies (and the Conservatives in 219).
This is really interesting - superforecasters are currently beating financial markets in predicting monetary policy on.ft.com/4gSspT7
This is what leadership in Europe looks like
Yes, it’s also easier for the left to coordinate tactical voting next time around because for most people it’ll be a question of “vote for your MP”
But current polling doesn’t look so great; if it stays roughly like this *and* the Tories and Reform do a deal it’s hard to see a left victory
It’s also about whether it lands at all — a lot of Labour voters seem to be staying at home at the moment.
And a lot of the marginals are abnormally tight. 2024 wasn’t 1997.
Anyway, I respect Stephen’s judgment and insider knowledge, so I’m less confident than I was when I began this discussion that a merger or pact will happen.
It’s in Reform’s interests not to do a deal right now. They want to see what their ceiling is. But I think, for the reason you mentioned (they’re not attacking very many seats, the Conservatives are incumbents in 121 seats), they’re likely to end up in a position where a merger feels desirable.
And, I agree it’ll be difficult for the Tories to surrender. My view is that the Conservatives are less likely to want a pact than Farage. I still think some sort of pact or merger will more likely than not (~60-65%) happen. This is usually the point where I’m supposed to offer a bet or something.
Oh, I agree with that. If the recent FindOutNow poll is correct, he’d be on course for 276 seats. No need to do a pact then. But I don’t think that’s likely.
And he becomes the senior partner, in my view, this side of the election, before it has even happened, because he can wave these projections (when he’s ahead) in their faces.
I just don’t think the Tories are in as strong a position as you say they are. This is the current seat projection. If and when he leapfrogs the Tories in these projections, he becomes the senior partner.
