Speedy analysis from @jrf-uk.bsky.social . This is how modelled household incomes evolve over the Parliament after deducting housing costs. It's a disappointing picture. Let's hope the Government beat the forecasts, although the headwinds from the current conflict shouldn't be underestimated.
chart showing Welfare spending as a share of GDP (left) and in real terms (right), by category, outturn and forecast: UK
How has today's forecast affected the outlook for welfare spending?
There has been little change, and considering spending as a share of GDP it does not look out of control.
A photo of JRF Chief Analyst with a quote about the latest Households Below MIS report. Peter says: When millions of lives continue to be blighted by rising costs and wages that are refusing to catch it's on all political parties to show their commitment to raising living standards. Only by bringing people's costs down and boosting their incomes will people start to feel better off by the end of the decade."
More than two-thirds of households struggling to afford a decent life are in work.
New research from @lborouniversity.bsky.social funded by JRF, sets out the scale of the problem. A 🧵
Decisions about the rate of benefits should be linked to the actual cost of essentials.
Good to see parliamentarians calling out how arbitrary the current approach is ⤵️
Statement reading: This is a historic day for children and families across the UK as legislation to remove the two-child limit from our social security system starts to make its way through Parliament. The two-child limit was an awful experiment that hurt children. More than any other policy, the two-child limit is responsible for driving child poverty to its current record high. Poverty has a devastating impact on young lives. Children going without things they need to learn and grow, living in damp homes, struggling at school, facing isolation and stress. Today marks the moment when we start to turn things around for the next generation. We commend the government for making the choice to scrap the two-child limit and ask all MPs to stand with children and support this Bill. Every child deserves the best start in life, with a decent childhood that lays the foundations for a strong future. Ending the two-child limit sets our country on the right path to meet that ambition.
🌞Today is a turning point, as legislation to remove the two child limit starts to make its way through parliament.
The policy was a terrible idea. It drove poverty up and future prospects down.
@jrf-uk.bsky.social has joined 65 orgs to urge all MPs to stand with children & support the Bill.
Got a question about @jrf-uk.bsky.social's Poverty in the UK 2026 report? Why not ask one of our analysts! They will be responding to questions 12-2 on Wednesday here:
www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics...
A shocking fact about the UK benefits system ⬇️
📖Read more here: www.jrf.org.uk/uk-poverty-2...
For the future projections of poverty, see: www.jrf.org.uk/social-secur...
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Policy action so far must be the start of the government's ambition, not its end.
A safety net there when you fall on hard times, a home you can afford, a good job and action to tackle the cost of essentials like energy.
Then it will feel like the country is turning a corner 4/
But policy can make the difference
Our forward look finds child poverty falling by 400,000 this April, mostly a result of the 2 child limit in Universal Credit being lifted.
But without further action, poverty falling quickly gives way to progress stalling. 3/
The poorest in Britain have got poorer.
In 1994/95 a third of people in poverty were in very deep poverty (4.6m).
By 2023/24 it was almost half (6.8m).
The deeper the poverty, the more damaging it is ⬇️ 2/
📣 Our new UK Poverty report is out!
It shows very deep poverty (6.8m people) and child poverty (4.5m children) were both at record highs when Labour took power in 2024.
It also shows how policy choices can change the picture… 🧵1/5
🗣️ 'The government came to power with a commitment to end the need for food banks. This promise really matters.'
Our Principal Policy Adviser @katieschmuecker.bsky.social sets out the implications of 6.8 million people living in very deep poverty at the time of the last general election 🔽
One of the highlights of this and previous years' reports was working with the Grassroots Poverty Action Group. It's important to hear real stories and struggles, and not just reduce this to a commentary on statistics, up or down. Policies and decisions have real impacts!
Devastating child poverty interview with @katieschmuecker.bsky.social of @jrf-uk.bsky.social on @bbc5live.bsky.social this morning. The social cost of poverty is incalculable.
Starts at 06.20. www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...
Those below the poverty line are, increasingly, well below it
New @statspeter.bsky.social @katieschmuecker.bsky.social @jrf-uk.bsky.social study
www.theguardian.com/society/2026...
📢Your essential guide to poverty in the UK is out!
When Labour came to power, very deep poverty & child poverty were at record levels.
Some vital changes have been made- like scrapping the two child limit- but that needs to be the beginning not the end of the Government's ambition.
Quote card showing JRF's Principal Policy Adviser Katie Schmuecker saying: 'The government has put its money where its mouth is on the manifesto commitment to reduce child poverty, and recognised the severe and acute poverty an alarming number of children are facing. This child poverty strategy will mean fewer children facing unacceptable hardship, but more will be needed to ensure every child gets the best start.'
📉 This morning, the government published its full Child Poverty Strategy, setting out plans to reduce hardship for children growing up in the UK by the end of the parliament.
It's a crucial commitment to delivering on one of their central manifesto promises.
"That would mean the single greatest fall [in child poverty] in one Parliament since records began." Look at how this Parliament could compare to previous ones back to 1964. An excellent foundation to build from, as @katieschmuecker.bsky.social says.
Lifting more than half a million children out of poverty by the end of the parliament - now that's the government putting its money where its mouth is on its manifesto commitment to reduce child poverty.
More to do, but a good foundation to build from.
Modelling’s always a bit uncertain, but one thing that is certain is ending the two child limit is doing the heavy lifting to reduce the number of children in poverty this parliament.
Government coming good on its manifesto pledge to reduce child poverty
Over 500,000 children out of poverty by the end of the parliament.
There’s more to do to make sure every child gets a good start in life, but this is a solid foundation
www.theguardian.com/society/2025...
Logos of 18 of the organisations that have campaigned to have the 2 child limit removed, including 38 degrees, Save the Children, Child Poverty Action Group, TUC, JRF, United Reform church, Methodist church, Rene Cassin and Islamic Relief
It’s a policy that has caused so much poverty and hardship. Parents, charities, faith organisations, unions and politicians have for years called for its removal.
The Government listened and acted. Hundreds of thousands of kids will have a brighter future as a result.
Brightly coloured image of families with children watching balloons in the shapes of “450,000” floating upwards lifting a banner reading “children lifted out of poverty”
Every child should get a good start in life, and universal credit should be there for people when they fall on hard times.
Removing the 2 child limited will lift 450,000 children out of poverty, and lessen its severity for many more.
There remains a mountain to climb on living standards - our latest modelling shows disposable income after housing costs will fall by £850 on average over this parliament. But the budget measures have made a difference for low income families.
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📣New @jrf-uk.bsky.social analysis
Scrapping the 2 child limit alone has reversed the projected decline in living standards by *more than half* for the bottom third of households
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The Chancellor made a bold claim today that this parliament will see the biggest reduction in child poverty since records began.
If the Budget doc projection of child poverty falling by 400,000 is right, so is the claim. Removing the two child limit is pivotal to this reduction.
Image from OBR's Budget docuoment: "Our economy forecast now incorporates the net effect of the changes to universal credit (UC) policies which remain in force following the policy changes made in July. We estimate these will add around 15,000 average hours equivalent (AHE) to labour supply in 2029-30. This reflects the net effect of: (1) the increase in the generosity of the UC standard allowance, which is expected to reduce recipients’ financial incentive to enter or remain in employment, leading to an estimated 11,000 AHE reduction to labour supply; and (2) the reductions in the generosity of and eligibility for health-related benefits in UC, which are expected to lower income for new claimants, increasing work incentives, and resulting in an estimated 26,000 AHE increase in labour supply. We have also assessed the new employment support programme announced in the Green Paper. Based on evidence from similar past schemes, combined with the Department for Work and Pensions’ range of estimates of the numbers of individuals that could be provided with support, we estimate that the programme could support 20,000 to 40,000 inactive claimants"
Today the OBR finally published employment impacts of Govt’s (remaining) disability benefit cuts, which weren’t ready in the spring. Confirms @jrf-uk.bsky.social analysis at the time that these huge cuts to disabled people’s incomes come with relatively few expected to move into work. 🧵1/3
The Government came to power on a manifesto pledge to reduce child poverty.
The Budget is a vital down payment on that commitment, and we hope to see an ambitious child poverty strategy follow very soon.
Bar graph showing 49% children in large families (3+ children) are going without enough food, living in a cold home and/or with parents unable to keep up with their bills. The equivalent figure for all children is 25%.
HALF of children in large low income families on universal credit are growing up in a family that can't afford enough food, heat and/or to keep up with bills.
No child in our country should experience that. Removing the two child limit will make a difference to these children.
