As I told @politico.com - the administration needs to pay attention to the Pakistan-Afghanistan conflict, which could create instability along Iran’s eastern flank and deepen the broader crisis across the region.
New legislation to reform Congress' war powers would require bipartisan consensus that does not currently exist. So, the appropriations process and the AUMF question are where the near-term Iran debate could play out.
Two other potential options face steep obstacles. A formal declaration of war, last issued in 1942, has effectively been replaced by the AUMF; it automatically triggers an array of domestic legal powers that presidents and Congresses have consistently preferred to avoid.
Murphy's logic is that it is more politically costly to vote affirmatively on authorization for war, that it is to vote against a war powers resolution. The WPR's expedited procedures allow an AUMF to be fast-tracked within the 60-day clock.
A second option is an AUMF vote. There is no existing congressional authorization for the use of force against Iran, and Trump's rationale has shifted wildly. Sen. Murphy has called for forcing an AUMF vote, arguing that lawmakers should have to cast a proactive yes-or-no vote on the war.
Unlike a war powers resolution, a supplemental appropriation in the Senate is subject to the filibuster — requiring 60 votes (ie. at least 7 Democrats) to advance. Lack of supplemental funding could constrain the war's scale and duration and force difficult tradeoffs within current stockpiles.
The most immediate pressure point is the power of the purse. The Pentagon is reportedly preparing a supplemental budget request of roughly $50 billion to replenish munitions expended in Operation Epic Fury — on top of the nearly $1 trillion Congress provided the military over the past year.
Yesterday the Senate rejected the Iran war powers resolution 47-53. More fundamentally, the WPR, since its enactment in 1973, has never forced a president to end a military operation once underway. So what realistic options remain for Congress to constrain this war? 🧵
Trump has dragged the United States into a war of choice with Iran, despite significant public opposition. If Congress refuses to vote, it is forfeiting its authority and committing lives and resources to open-ended conflict without public consent. That is a fundamental breakdown of our democracy.
At #MSC2026, I argued that the central challenge for U.S. foreign policy is continuity. Americans want strength without hegemony, competition without panic, and engagement with limits. The task now is building a disciplined and durable agenda that can survive elections and rebuild credibility.
In the Trump era, strategy has given way to ego management, headline dominance, and the optics of power.
www.youtube.com/live/tjpVDAq...
Congress expanded the Development Finance Corporation’s balance sheet and broadened where it can operate in the NDAA, but @afreenakhter.bsky.social writes that more needs to be done to realize its potential as an instrument of American power.
The U.S. military is good at toppling foreign leaders. Washington’s hubris is believing it can quickly engineer political order. The result is often catastrophe. History is full of warnings:
1953 Iran • 1954 Guatemala • 2001 Afghanistan • 2003 Iraq • 2011 Libya
Honored to be a part of @carnegieendowment.org 2025 must-reads!
The Development Finance Corporation shows promise for helping the U.S. achieve its foreign policy goals. But it’s not living up to its potential.
Why not? @afreenakhter.bsky.social explains: youtube.com/shorts/47SHF...
As I told Devex, the Trump team's approach to the DFC has focused almost singularly on critical minerals. Broadening that aperture could signal an evolution in how they see the agency's role. www.devex.com/news/kenya-l...
The Development Finance Corporation is meant to be an alternative to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. But constraints on the agency hold it back. What can the U.S. do to make the DFC a stronger competitor?
@afreenakhter.bsky.social explains: carnegieendowment.org/research/202...
The DFC was built to be cautious--but caution loses in a world defined by speed, scale, and industrial alignment. My new Carnegie paper argues for a DFC that shapes markets, builds trusted supply chains, and anchors an architecture of industrial statecraft. carnegieendowment.org/research/202...
As I told Politico on the renewed U.S.-India defense pact, "Predictability and trust require strategic clarity." Trump’s approach is erratic and personality-driven. Absent a coherent strategy, this is pact is just choreography.
www.politico.com/newsletters/...
I wrote in Just Security that Washington too often balks while Beijing builds. This past week is a case study. Beijing’s wiring the world. Congress can't find the switch.
www.justsecurity.org/120015/reaut...
The BUILD Act created the
@DFCgov
- America’s answer to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. The DPA is how we mobilize U.S. industry in a crisis, from semiconductors to medical gear.
In the last week, Congress let the BUILD Act and the Defense Production Act expire. Two pillars of U.S. industrial strategy and foreign policy - terminated. Congress had years to act. But their recurring playbook remains: lapse first, panic later. 🧵
In today’s #MustRead, @afreenakhter.bsky.social
warns that Congress is stalling on reauthorizing America’s development bank—while China surges ahead with $1T in global investments. The U.S. must act or risk losing ground in the race for economic leadership.
www.justsecurity.org/120015/reaut...
Thanks for sharing!
(1/2) Catch up on our recent analysis:
• U.S. military strike / Venezuela
• Afghanistan
• International law / Gender violence
• Northern Ireland / Accountability
• Trump executive actions
• United States / Foreign investment
• Artificial intelligence
• Climate change
China builds. America balks. Whether the U.S. keeps losing ground depends on choices now before Congress. My latest on America’s development bank at www.justsecurity.org/120015/reaut...
As China’s Belt and Road Initiative challenges U.S. influence, Congress is considering reauthorization for its International Development Finance Corporation (DFC).
@afreenakhter.bsky.social outlines how the agency could “move at the speed of global competition -- without compromising safeguards.”
Republicans are suppressing their own voters. Political coalitions have shifted, but tactics have not. Why?
Article by me.
slate.com/news-and-pol...
Congress needs *a lot* of caffeine. Here's why 👇
The #abundanceagenda envisions a government that delivers faster at home. Our foreign affairs agencies suffer from the same gridlock. Let’s speed them up — starting with the DFC.
