MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter

Check out the new Player Profile page on the Streamlit app (dtw-streamlit.app)

You can now see hitter's est. production (using Bayesian hierarchical model) stacks up against the league, track their EB/PA across seasons, and see where they rank in overall production.

Feedback is always helpful. Thx

Estimated bases distribution

See all batted ball data at https://dtw-streamlit.app

Data: MLB | @mlb_simulator

#5 Highest Expected Bases

Jordan Beck (Rockies)
04/25/2025 vs Reds

Est. bases: 3.90
EV: 103.9 mph | LA: +36°
xBA: 0.983 | Result: Home Run

Data/Video: MLB
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=afe4d6c1-3b49-3e1c-ad71-ebe1b99b6955

#4 Highest Expected Bases

Brent Rooker (Athletics)
07/29/2025 vs Mariners

Est. bases: 3.90
EV: 113.3 mph | LA: +24°
xBA: 0.992 | Result: Home Run

Data/Video: MLB
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=ca50d8fe-e382-33eb-866d-44506dcad985

#3 Highest Expected Bases

Shea Langeliers (Athletics)
07/27/2025 vs Astros

Est. bases: 3.90
EV: 109.3 mph | LA: +36°
xBA: 0.981 | Result: Home Run

Data/Video: MLB
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=010b9f8f-b6f5-3729-ba3a-f00d481e4f5c

#2 Highest Expected Bases

Michael Conforto (Dodgers)
06/25/2025 vs Rockies

Est. bases: 3.90
EV: 111.2 mph | LA: +35°
xBA: 0.987 | Result: Home Run

Data/Video: MLB
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=63df54a1-d58e-3e45-a87e-9c60dbe42607

Highest Expected Bases of 2025

Model: exit velo, launch angle, spray angle, ballpark

#1: Hunter Goodman (Rockies)
09/02/2025 vs Giants

Est. bases: 3.90
EV: 108.9 mph | LA: +34°
xBA: 0.987 | Result: Home Run

Data/Video: MLB

Luck analysis visualization

See all batted ball data at https://dtw-streamlit.app

Data: MLB | @mlb_simulator

#5 Luckiest Hit

Jonny DeLuca (Rays) — Single
03/30/2025 vs Rockies

Exit velo: 70.8 mph
Launch angle: +82°
xBA: 0.012 | Est. bases: 0.02
Luck: +0.98

Data/Video: MLB
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=452fbc52-d5dc-3ac7-964b-a61ebc3f4c90

#4 Luckiest Hit

Nico Hoerner (Cubs) — Double
04/27/2025 vs Phillies

Exit velo: 83.7 mph
Launch angle: +43°
xBA: 0.012 | Est. bases: 0.03
Luck: +1.97

Data/Video: MLB
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=3d2ea118-7b50-37a4-bda9-7fdb07c07212

#3 Luckiest Hit

Jose Altuve (Astros) — Single
04/02/2025 vs Giants

Exit velo: 56.7 mph
Launch angle: +80°
xBA: 0.009 | Est. bases: 0.01
Luck: +0.99

Data/Video: MLB
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=f0c5ef97-0a7b-3728-a5b2-6550d185a51d

#2 Luckiest Hit

Ryan O'Hearn (Padres) — Single
09/06/2025 vs Rockies

Exit velo: 57.3 mph
Launch angle: +74°
xBA: 0.009 | Est. bases: 0.01
Luck: +0.99

Data/Video: MLB
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=c512b6cd-fbdb-33b5-a72e-3cb023fafec2

Luckiest Hits of 2025

Batted balls with the lowest xBA that were scored hits.

#1: Gavin Sheets (Padres) — Single
05/06/2025 vs Yankees

EV: 88.2 mph | LA: +52°
xBA: 0.008 | Luck: +0.98

Data/Video: MLB
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=e5ccbf9f-966c-38c4-b91a-9c3efbca2cc8

Luck analysis visualization

See all batted ball data at https://dtw-streamlit.app

Data: MLB | @mlb_simulator

#5 Luckiest Home Run

Lawrence Butler (Athletics)
07/08/2025 vs Braves

Exit velo: 96.3 mph
Launch angle: +33°
xBA: 0.049 | Est. bases: 0.13
Luck: +3.87

Data/Video: MLB
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=ccc67e0e-e692-330f-8609-93238c2659a7

#4 Luckiest Home Run

José Caballero (Yankees)
08/19/2025 vs Rays

Exit velo: 90.5 mph
Launch angle: +36°
xBA: 0.036 | Est. bases: 0.10
Luck: +3.90

Data/Video: MLB
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=7873547e-f477-371a-bc0e-eac9197a1331

#3 Luckiest Home Run

Bob Seymour (Rays)
08/20/2025 vs Yankees

Exit velo: 93.4 mph
Launch angle: +29°
xBA: 0.039 | Est. bases: 0.10
Luck: +3.90

Data/Video: MLB
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=214d4d9a-8677-3620-985f-d3289aae29c7

#2 Luckiest Home Run

Corbin Carroll (D-backs)
06/13/2025 vs Padres

Exit velo: 94.8 mph
Launch angle: +30°
xBA: 0.033 | Est. bases: 0.09
Luck: +3.91

Data/Video: MLB
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=e099fe06-25ba-303b-8411-2d68931befe6

Least Likely Home Runs of 2025

Model: exit velo, launch angle, spray angle, ballpark

#1: Isiah Kiner-Falefa (Blue Jays)
09/24/2025 vs Red Sox

EV: 94.6 mph | LA: +33°
xBA: 0.029 | Luck: +3.92

Data/Video: MLB
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=7c455d0f-a980-3725-adf5-d4f4e60fc352

Players with small sample sizes get pulled toward the league avg, while players with more data get estimates closer to their raw numbers.

You can filter by team, but here's what the league-wide pitcher breakdowns look like

Added a Player Evaluations page to the Deserve-to-Win Simulator app (dtw-str.streamlit.app)

Uses a Bayesian hierarchical model to rank every hitter and pitcher by the model's estimated bases per PA and batted ball.

It will update each day during the 2026 season (w/new data).

#MLB #Statcast

Baseball is here

More updates to come for the app. If you have feedback or feature requests, I'd love to hear them. Just a reminder that this is a solo project I work on in my free time, so I'll do my best to get to everything but it might take a bit. Thanks for checking it out! See you soon.

Hi! Launched a Streamlit app for the Deserve-to-Win-O-Meter. You can now easily search any game from the 2025 season (soon 2026). Note I added spray angle to the model, which accounts for where balls are hit on the field, not just how hard.

dtw-str.streamlit.app

Game analysis visualization

Game analysis visualization

Game analysis visualization

Game analysis visualization

🚨 Dodgers are luck merchants! 🚨

⚾ Dodgers @ Blue Jays
🏟️ 11/01/2025

Final Score:
Dodgers 5 - 4 Blue Jays

📊 Deserve-to-Win:
Dodgers 36% - 54% Blue Jays (Tie 10%)

#MLB #Statcast #Dodgers #BlueJays
#LetsGoDodgers #LightsUpLetsGo

Game analysis visualization

Game analysis visualization

Game analysis visualization

Game analysis visualization

🚨 Dodgers are luck merchants! 🚨

⚾ Dodgers @ Blue Jays
🏟️ 10/31/2025

Final Score:
Dodgers 3 - 1 Blue Jays

📊 Deserve-to-Win:
Dodgers 24% - 58% Blue Jays (Tie 18%)

#MLB #Statcast #Dodgers #BlueJays
#LetsGoDodgers #LightsUpLetsGo

⚾️ Playoff Update (10/30)

1) World Series probabilities based on series record, team strength, and remaining home/away games

2) Team Strength Rankings

#Postseason

Game analysis visualization

Game analysis visualization

Game analysis visualization

Game analysis visualization

⚾ Blue Jays @ Dodgers
🏟️ 10/29/2025

Final Score:
Blue Jays 6 - 1 Dodgers

📊 Deserve-to-Win:
Blue Jays 70% - 15% Dodgers (Tie 15%)

#MLB #Statcast #BlueJays #Dodgers
#LightsUpLetsGo #LetsGoDodgers

⚾️ Playoff Update (10/29)

1) World Series probabilities based on series record, team strength, and remaining home/away games

2) Team Strength Rankings

#Postseason

Game analysis visualization

Game analysis visualization

Game analysis visualization

Game analysis visualization

⚾ Blue Jays @ Dodgers
🏟️ 10/28/2025

Final Score:
Blue Jays 6 - 2 Dodgers

📊 Deserve-to-Win:
Blue Jays 40% - 46% Dodgers (Tie 14%)

#MLB #Statcast #BlueJays #Dodgers
#LightsUpLetsGo #LetsGoDodgers