Thank you! Will be on my stag skiing in France for the next week so trying to not get too in the weeds but will be following your posts (hopefully not too closely!)
13.03.2026 18:41
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Thank you! Will be on my stag skiing in France for the next week so trying to not get too in the weeds but will be following your posts (hopefully not too closely!)
How does 115-120 IV compare with prior shocks? Seems really really high for how contained spreads are right now. Wasn’t COVID like 150 or something like that for front month OTM?
Yep tend to agree. Kinda wild that spot prices (in credit and stocks) is so sanguine still IMO. And with credit… I’m more sanguine on the private side than feels consensus but undeniably some risk there too (which is probably also helping juice vol)…
Great chart btw, am on holiday so trying not to follow things too closely right now but this seems pretty aggressive and noticeable…
Yeah but is the value in shorting HYG (and or stocks) or in selling front end vol?
No one wants to be short/underweight a TACO, but that logic feels like it is fighting the last (trade) war…
And the “something big is happening” viral moment of a few weeks ago only added fuel to the fire. This “thought experiment” does a good job of thinking through what that left tail scenario could actually look like for financial markets and the economy (though isn’t the happiest reading!).
There is a narrative emerging that instead of being driven by AI being a flop, the next major financial market downturn will be driven by it being too powerful. This narrative has been building since software and PE stocks began selling off late last year…
open.substack.com/pub/citrini/...
“A lot” is probably being a bit dramatic. But I think there are still gonna be issues emerging over the year and market has not had much tolerance for this (looking back at ZION/WAL episode in October for example)… think there will be more.
It’s complicated. I don’t necessarily disagree in a vacuum looking ahead, but I think a lot of the loans these guys have on their books still are effed, for lack of a better term, and I’m not sure the going forwards outlook for CRE changes that reality.
How are you thinking about the CRE exposure? Still seems like some pain to take there…
🤡
He is so so bad
The thing is, Arsenal *always* choke. City (and admittedly Arsenal) are clearly favourites, but I honestly think any of the current top 5 could easily be contenders, even if some of the them aren’t playing like it right now.
Post a perfect album from the 90s, full stop
You’re talking about Arsenal, but could just as easily be Liverpool
Eeeeek
All actually modestly underperforming NVDA today. Zero sum game probably fine for indexes… negative sum (i.e. NVDA mkt share losses not neatly distributed elsewhere) might not be (and probably a function of concern over how this could all impact OpenAI ecosystem and the flywheel spending).
Not a semis expert and increasingly feels like you need to be to have any confidence being long NVDA. Seems uninvestable to generalists in the meantime until proven otherwise, and the more cracks in its moat the less there is an obvious destination for its flow (note AMZN/GOOGL/AVGO…
It was hard to notice given our lead in the league last season, but this collapse in form actually started in March… def has intensified in the last two months though and is getting more painful…
It’s odd, a lot of slop since going to APO. Maybe not that odd when you think about incentives but still, kinda weird to see.
Oh interestingly Coatue put out a chart on this overnight:
Train already left the station. The latter grouping also has some bearing on some other infra names (CRWV, VRT etc.), at least for now. Reminds me *a little* of DeepSeek aftermath. More muted for now but might be more sustainable…
He went through all that trouble, and didn’t quite manage to mention that NVDA was only selling off cos Gemini is crushing it and trained on TPUs. Oops!
Won’t be quite so painfully noticeable, in fairness…
“Hooting first, asking questions later” 🤭
Interesting, live in the Bay Area and the housing market seems red hot, whereas AI increasingly feels like a systemic risk that might be out over its skis. I suspect the former will eventually notice the latter, but housing doesn’t feel like a big negative economic issue locally right now…
But it’s Thursday and tomorrow is Friday. If we see this kind of price action extend tomorrow could be a fun week ahead…
Think this is consistent with the price action and seems like it could be (a) proximate cause
bsky.app/profile/yass...