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Thelonious Goerz

@theloniousgoerz

Ph.D. Candidate at Cornell Sociology studying demography, stratification, segregation, race, quantitative methods. Theloniousgoerz.github.io

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07.10.2023
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Latest posts by Thelonious Goerz @theloniousgoerz

Looks like a great paper! Added to my reading list!

06.03.2026 14:33 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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New decomposition method to quantify how specific subpopulations drive demographic gaps. E.g., estimating how foreign-born populations by race and ethnicity contribute to the gap between total and native-born life expectancy.
@eugeniopaglino.bsky.social
πŸ‘‰ www.demographic-research.org/articles/vol...

06.03.2026 09:19 πŸ‘ 8 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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My favorite paper of 2019 has just been conditionally accepted at AER (lmao)

The Voting Rights Act rapidly increased Black wages in the South via public employment & redistribution

static1.squarespace.com/static/59dc0...

03.03.2026 16:57 πŸ‘ 310 πŸ” 69 πŸ’¬ 8 πŸ“Œ 1
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Today, in honour of WEB DuBois's birthday in 1868, the @publicdomainrev.bsky.social features the hand-drawn infographics DuBois made with his students to depict the conditions of African-American life in 1900.

Arts-based pedagogy all those years ago!
buff.ly/3kdWqRD

23.02.2026 13:53 πŸ‘ 177 πŸ” 76 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 7

White folks get all upset at the notion of β€œreparations” but don’t seem to mind that we continue to have what are essentially reverse-reparations in this country, especially in much of the South, where folks whose wealth came from slavery continue to strip Black families of land and property. 1/2

20.02.2026 13:45 πŸ‘ 55 πŸ” 29 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0
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In β€œLimits of Predicting Individual-Level Longevity,” Badolato et al. assess a range of classic statistical & machine learning survival analysis models. @nickirons.bsky.social @monjalexander.bsky.social @ugobas.bsky.social @ezagheni.bsky.social @mpidr.bsky.social read.dukeupress.edu/demography/a...

12.02.2026 21:14 πŸ‘ 20 πŸ” 11 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 2
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Our paper β€œInferring fine-grained migration patterns across the United States” is now out in @natcomms.nature.com! We released a new, highly granular migration dataset. 1/9

05.02.2026 17:30 πŸ‘ 70 πŸ” 27 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 5
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Jan. 6, 1959 | Lovings Convicted of Interracial Marriage and Banished From Virginia Learn more about our history of racial injustice.

On this day in 1959, Richard and Mildred Loving were convicted of interracial marriage in Virginia, given a one-year suspended sentence, and banished from the state.

06.01.2026 14:00 πŸ‘ 106 πŸ” 92 πŸ’¬ 5 πŸ“Œ 9

Indeed! I made Saag w/ chicken last night and it was the perfect antidote to the snow.

12.12.2025 23:47 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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β€œUnderstanding Latino & Asian Panethnic & Ethnic Subgroup Residential Segregation”: @acrowell.bsky.social et al. recommend that researchers adopt the described measurement practices "to accurately assess patterns of ethnic group segregation.” @tamusoci.bsky.social read.dukeupress.edu/demography/a...

04.12.2025 18:05 πŸ‘ 6 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
"Captain Gains" on Capitol Hill
Shang-Jin Wei & Yifan Zhou
WORKING PAPER 34524
DOI 10.3386/w34524
ISSUE DATE November 2025
Using transaction-level data on US congressional stock trades, we find that lawmakers who later ascend to leadership positions perform similarly to matched peers beforehand but outperform them by 47 percentage points annually after ascension. Leaders' superior performance arises through two mechanisms. The political influence channel is reflected in higher returns when their party controls the chamber, sales of stocks preceding regulatory actions, and purchase of stocks whose firms receiving more government contracts and favorable party support on bills. The corporate access channel is reflected in stock trades that predict subsequent corporate news and greater returns on donor-owned or home-state firms.

"Captain Gains" on Capitol Hill Shang-Jin Wei & Yifan Zhou WORKING PAPER 34524 DOI 10.3386/w34524 ISSUE DATE November 2025 Using transaction-level data on US congressional stock trades, we find that lawmakers who later ascend to leadership positions perform similarly to matched peers beforehand but outperform them by 47 percentage points annually after ascension. Leaders' superior performance arises through two mechanisms. The political influence channel is reflected in higher returns when their party controls the chamber, sales of stocks preceding regulatory actions, and purchase of stocks whose firms receiving more government contracts and favorable party support on bills. The corporate access channel is reflected in stock trades that predict subsequent corporate news and greater returns on donor-owned or home-state firms.

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Figure 2: Estimated dynamic quasi-difference-in-differences coefficient, di, of equation(3), with vertical dashed lines representing 90 percent confidence intervals. The point estimate of the year in which the lawmaker became a congressional leader (Year 0) is normalized to zero. BHAR over the 250 days following each trade is the dependent variable and calculated using the Fama-French five-factor plus momentum as the benchmark model.

什 1 1 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 1 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 Year Figure 2: Estimated dynamic quasi-difference-in-differences coefficient, di, of equation(3), with vertical dashed lines representing 90 percent confidence intervals. The point estimate of the year in which the lawmaker became a congressional leader (Year 0) is normalized to zero. BHAR over the 250 days following each trade is the dependent variable and calculated using the Fama-French five-factor plus momentum as the benchmark model.

After becoming a congressional leader, a politician’s stock portfolio beats out those of peers by 47 (!!!) percentage points a year through trades timed around bills and firms that later get government contracts

www.nber.org/papers/w34524

via @florianederer.bsky.social

03.12.2025 01:42 πŸ‘ 1434 πŸ” 629 πŸ’¬ 32 πŸ“Œ 83

Looks like a super interesting paper! Looking forward to reading.

02.12.2025 21:19 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

🧡/ Perceptions of falling #status have been hypothesized as a driver of worsening #mortality among #White adults in the U.S. over the last few decades.

Testing this #hypothesis is difficult.

But we think we have some #evidence in favor of it.

01.12.2025 17:16 πŸ‘ 7 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 1

ICYMI: New paper for causal effects with panel data, subsuming other approaches. We generate realistic synthetic data based on commonly studied datasets, showing our method substantially outperforms others and providing insight about what in the data-generating process corresponds to gains.

23.11.2025 22:39 πŸ‘ 84 πŸ” 24 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 5

That seems totally plausible. N=1, but I know that Light Rail development in Seattle faced major opposition for years from different citizen’s groups which could be bc of perceived problems.

13.11.2025 15:29 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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New working paper up on SocArxiv! osf.io/preprints/so.... I use the 1940 Census and linked mortality records in combination with an IV-design to study the causal effects of racial segregation on longevity. I show that segregation reduces both Black and White longevity.

13.11.2025 14:52 πŸ‘ 12 πŸ” 7 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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So grateful for this office view!

07.11.2025 17:31 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Leniency Designs: An Operator's Manual We develop a step-by-step guide to leniency (a.k.a. judge or examiner instrument) designs, drawing on recent econometric literatures. The unbiased jackknife instrumental variables estimator (UJIVE) is...

Excited to post a new working paper with @instrumenthull.bsky.social and Michal KolesΓ‘r: arxiv.org/abs/2511.03572

Will post a thread on it soon, but if you're interested in judge/examiner designs, I think you'll find this guide very helpful!

06.11.2025 04:06 πŸ‘ 40 πŸ” 11 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 2

A huge congratulations to DOCTOR Haowen Zheng, who defended a fantastic dissertation on how changes in family formation and in the spatial distribution of jobs in US affects who moves, where they move to, & who benefits most from moving.

Haowen starts a post-doc at Michigan's Stone Center in Jan.

30.10.2025 11:56 πŸ‘ 31 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Other academics are fighting (sometimes literally) one another to publish Nature papers. But I am just sitting here writing abstraction layers for probabilistic programming frameworks.

28.10.2025 12:33 πŸ‘ 79 πŸ” 5 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Mapping subnational gender gaps in internet and mobile adoption using social media data | PNAS The digital revolution has ushered in many societal and economic benefits. Yet access to digital technologies such as mobile phones and internet re...

New @pnas.org paper constructing subnational estimates of internet and mobile adoption by gender, including gender gaps, for 117 low- and middle- income countries from 2015 through 2025.

www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

15.10.2025 03:05 πŸ‘ 39 πŸ” 13 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

The pronatalists have done an excellent job of using bad demography to convince the legacy media that low birth rates are a crisis.

They are using bad demography to whitewash their sexism, racism, Christian nationalism, classism, & anti-LGBTQ sentiments.

It’s why my colleagues & I wrote this:

02.09.2025 13:06 πŸ‘ 38 πŸ” 12 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 2

Congrats! This is huge! πŸ₯³

28.08.2025 21:34 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Both the Brown and Columbia agreements require the universities to report the test scores and GPAs of applicants, admits, and matriculating students by race *and color,* among other attributes.

Wait, what? What's "color" doing in there?

A sociologist weighs in.

1/9

31.07.2025 19:27 πŸ‘ 157 πŸ” 51 πŸ’¬ 7 πŸ“Œ 10

Used this as a reference for a working group discussion on family FE designs. Great paper and led to a generative discussion!

23.07.2025 14:34 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

the destruction of chattel slavery is one of the great accomplishments in our nation's history and the reason conservatives hate celebrating it is because doing so legitimizes the black counter-narrative of the united states

19.06.2025 16:01 πŸ‘ 22089 πŸ” 5304 πŸ’¬ 171 πŸ“Œ 119

I want to highlight 3 things from this excellent report:
1) Women's reproductive labor is too often the solution to "population problems."
2) Low birth rates aren't a rejection of children & parenthood.
3) Supporting families is a worthy goal in itself, even if policies don't raise birth rates. 1/

11.06.2025 15:53 πŸ‘ 18 πŸ” 6 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Sad that this has to be my first post here, but the gutting of the FSRDC program is disastrous for demographic research.

06.06.2025 19:36 πŸ‘ 11 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0
Internal migration in early adulthood, a critical life stage marked by frequent job transitions and demographic events, contributes to income disparities between married men and women. This study adopts a life course perspective to elucidate the development of this gender inequality pre- and post-migration. Using the NLSY79 data from 1979 to 2018 and an event studies model that leverages within-individual variations in both pre- and post-migration income trajectories relative to non-migrants, I observe a steadily growing migration premium for men over 15 years post-migration. By contrast, I show a prolonged migration penalty for women that peaks around five years after migration and lasts for a decade. While improved employment status accounts for about half of men’s migration income premium consistently over time, detachment from the labor market explains a smaller proportion of women’s migration income penalty mostly in the short term. Although occupational changes and fertility do not impact men's gains from migration, they account for women’s migration penalty in the long run. Ignoring pre-migration income trends underestimates income gains among male migrants and overestimates income losses among female migrants. These results emphasize the importance of temporal dynamics in family migration and gender inequality studies.

Internal migration in early adulthood, a critical life stage marked by frequent job transitions and demographic events, contributes to income disparities between married men and women. This study adopts a life course perspective to elucidate the development of this gender inequality pre- and post-migration. Using the NLSY79 data from 1979 to 2018 and an event studies model that leverages within-individual variations in both pre- and post-migration income trajectories relative to non-migrants, I observe a steadily growing migration premium for men over 15 years post-migration. By contrast, I show a prolonged migration penalty for women that peaks around five years after migration and lasts for a decade. While improved employment status accounts for about half of men’s migration income premium consistently over time, detachment from the labor market explains a smaller proportion of women’s migration income penalty mostly in the short term. Although occupational changes and fertility do not impact men's gains from migration, they account for women’s migration penalty in the long run. Ignoring pre-migration income trends underestimates income gains among male migrants and overestimates income losses among female migrants. These results emphasize the importance of temporal dynamics in family migration and gender inequality studies.

The honorable mention goes to Haowen Zheng, β€œDiverging Trajectories: Gendered Income Dynamics Pre- and Post-Family Migration.” 2/3

04.06.2025 13:59 πŸ‘ 6 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0