#CenterForChinaAnalysis' @neilthomas123.bsky.social joined the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) to explain how the historic purge of the PLA's top general, Zhang Youxia, fits into Xi Jinping's greater fight against corruption in his ranks 🇨🇳
Much more analysis on the Fourth Plenum and US-China relations in the piece, co-authored with Lobsang Tsering
asiasociety.org/policy-insti...
10/10
So what kind of deal does Xi want with Trump?
Shortly after their summit, I went to a conference in NYC where half the room thought there'd be a "comprehensive" US-China trade deal by 2028
I was shocked
Xi wants a truce to buy time and build leverage, not a grand bargain
9/
Key to Xi’s domestic agenda and US dealmaking is his political power
The plenum reaffirmed his control despite record purges and further centralization
E.g., share of cadre comments on plenum drafts then incorporated into final docs fell from 35.5% in 2010 to 21.4% in 2025
8/
Xi himself is concerned about overproduction and ruinous price wars
But the plenum offered few convincing answers (yet) for how to curb such "involution"
For Xi, the US is a cautionary tale of deindustrialization, so China's economy "must not shift from real to virtual"
7/
China will remain a high-capacity economy that puts producers over consumers
Tensions with other industrial economies—especially in Europe and North America—will intensify
China wants to dominate supply chains for future tech like it does now for EVs, batteries & solar
6/
Xi's top goals for the five-year plan for 2026-2030 are "building a modernized industrial system" and "self-strengthening in science and tech"
He wants to ensure China can never again be coerced or contained by the US
With "extraordinary measures" to develop key core tech
5/
Beijing sees a connect between its recent Fourth Plenum on the five-year plan and Trump-Xi
"Major-power relations shape the international situation ... which profoundly influences domestic development"
The summit was a bid to secure strategic breathing room for Xi's agenda
4/
But Xi still sees Trump as an agent of chaos and is preparing for a more turbulent world
April 2: 34% tariff on China
April 8: 84%
April 9: 125%
April 10: Beijing holds a "special meeting" to adjust its five-year planning in light of "changes in the external situation"...
3/
Probably not by the numbers—China's nominal GDP was only 64% of the US last year
But perhaps yes in substance—industrial might, tech self-reliance, and export controls helped Xi stare down US pressure this year
Chinese scholars are praising Mao's "strategic foresight"
2/
Mao Zedong said China would eclipse the US by 2030
In 1955: "Our goal is to catch up with and surpass the US … it will take at least 50 years, perhaps 75, which is 15 five-year plans"
Xi just outlined China's 15th five-year plan. Can he prove Mao right?
Latest for @asiapolicy.asiasociety.org
1/
Where is Xi Jinping steering China’s economy?
How are U.S.-China relations shaping his choices?
Why so much turmoil in Beijing?
Join @asiapolicy.asiasociety.org for an Oct 29 webinar on the Fourth Plenum w/Michael Hirson, Chris Johnson, Dan Wang & Guoguang Wu
asiasociety.org/policy-insti...
What matters most to Xi Jinping? What policies does he drive himself?
In a new paper, #CenterforChinaAnalysis fellows @neilthomas123.bsky.social and Lobsang Tsering analyze Xi’s priorities using a CCA-compiled database of actions and policies Xi has personally initiated. ⬇️
Honored to join the third fellowship cohort of the Penn Project on the Future of U.S.-China Relations
Look forward to working with this amazing group as I prepare a policy paper on backchannel diplomacy
Kudos to @neysunm.bsky.social and Amy Gadsden at Penn Global for leading this project!
The obsession with trade deficits, manufacturing jobs...Trump clearly has China envy.
So we had @neilthomas123.bsky.social and @katelogan.bsky.social, two top China industrial strategy experts, on the pod. They played our riskgame and told us what we got right, wrong, and everything in-between
WATCH: In a new webinar co-hosted with @scmpnews.bsky.social, CCA fellows @neilthomas123.bsky.social and Lizzi C. Lee join SCMP Executive Director Chow Chung-yan to discuss key insights from China's recent Two Sessions.
📺WATCH: Our experts from the Center for #China Analysis
@hotpotwhynot.bsky.social, @neilthomas123.bsky.social, Lizzi C. Lee, and Guoguang Wu unpack China’s Two Sessions, Premier Li Qiang’s Government Work Report, China's growth targets, and more in a new panel discussion. ⬇️
Cheers Jeremy!
A good explainer on China's refreshingly boring big annual political gathering which takes place next week, by @neilthomas123.bsky.social and @jingqian.bsky.social
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"The confluence of heightened chronic disease incidence, demographic headwinds, and domestic policy challenges has brought [China’s health system] to the edge of functionality"
Patrick Beyrer & Bob T. Li
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The Year of Complex Challenges Will Intensify the Need for Robust Climate Action
"[China's] carbon emissions will finally plateau, but as the country struggles with an economic slowdown, more forceful policies to decrease emissions may be difficult"
Li Shuo
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Risk of Volatility Will Loom Large Across the Taiwan Strait
"The risk of volatility in the Taiwan Strait will remain high over the next four years, as Beijing currently has no intention of resuming contact with Taiwan under the Lai administration"
Rorry Daniels
11/14
U.S.-China Diplomatic Divide Will Widen
"Each side portrays the other as intent on undermining their fundamental national security interests, and this rhetoric reinforces perceptions that the other side seeks to 'dominate' in a contest"
Lyle Morris
10/14
Beijing Will Struggle to Manage Relations with the New U.S. Administration
"Whether the U.S.-China relationship remains intact will depend on whether China perceives U.S. actions as setting the stage for a deal or ... unilateral decoupling"
Rick Waters
9/14
Economic Slowdown and Post-COVID Challenges Will Continue to Drive People Toward Religion
"Narratives of national pride and cultural rejuvenation no longer align with ordinary citizens’ lived experiences ... more people are turning to religion & spirituality"
John Osburg
8/14
COVID-19’s Impact on Society Will Linger
"People are now more pessimistic and uncertain ... A persistent lack of confidence in the country’s leadership and institutions will complicate Beijing’s efforts to achieve its economic and social development goals."
G.A. Donovan
7/14
Tensions Over Industrial Policy and Trade Will Escalate
"China is shifting from investment-led growth to technological self-reliance, with semiconductors, electric vehicles, biotechnology, and advanced manufacturing leading the way"
Lizzi C. Lee
6/14
China Will Continue to Develop New Quality Productive Forces
"The meaning of the [NQPF] concept — and hence the means by which China plans to realize it — will evolve through further elaboration in party documents and official speeches"
Qiheng Chen
5/14
