@ztruchlewski
Prof Uni of Geneva • Fellow @eui-schuman.bsky.social & @lse-ei.bsky.social • EU Polity Formation & Integration, Solidarity, Austerity • @solid-erc.bsky.social • Frmrly: @uva.nl Max Weber EUI @ecb.europa.eu @ec.europa.eu • https://zgtruchlewski.github.io
Really happy this smarticle by @katealexandershaw.bsky.social, Joseph Ganderson & Anna Kyriazi has been published! If a crisis happens and nobody calls is a crisis, is it still a crisis?
New piece from me, on the politics of 'abundance', in IPPR Progressive Review (currently free to read) onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
Today marks four years since Russia invaded Ukraine. These are some thoughts (recorded yesterday) on what Ukrainians have done for all of us and what we can learn from them.
Amsterdam ❄️ ⛄️
Charts from the article linked in the post.
Back in 2022, @economist.com published a neat graphical summary of how tightly is the system engineered to favor Fidesz-KDNP. Including a comparison with the US House of Representatives in which the US came out ahead of Hungary.
www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
A screenshot of the website linked in the post.
59 days until the Hungarian elections.
Here's a new interactive seat projection tool.
mandatumkalkulator.voksadat.hu
A smiling plushie in the shape of a pieróg - Poland's famous stuffed dumpling - has become a hit at the Winter Olympics after being adopted as a mascot by the Polish figure skating team.
The cooperative for people with disabilities that creates the toy says it has been overwhelmed with orders.
When we talk about European payment sovereignty, names like Digital Euro or WERO dominate the headlines.
But the real heavyweight champion isn’t a project in development—it’s already here, it’s MADE IN POLAND, and it’s crushing records.
It is BLIK
www.blik.com/en
www.ft.com/content/fcc2...
now open access :)
The publisher estimates the Bayesian Workflow book will ship in June www.routledge.com/Bayesian-Wor...
📢 JOB ALERT! Postdoc opportunity in Political Behaviour & Political Economy (UKRI‑funded) - Please do share with anyone who might be a great fit. If you’re interested or would like to know more, please feel free to get in touch!! jobs.reading.ac.uk/Job/JobDetai...
🚨Job alert 🚨
I have an opening for a postdoc in my team at @ipz.bsky.social in the area of digital democracy starting Sep 1, 2026.
If you are working on the impact of the digital transformation on politics, please apply by 🗓️ Mar 1, 2026.
📤 Please share widely!
www.ipz.uzh.ch/de/ueber-uns...
to subjugate all of Ukr, any settlement now would be temporary. To make it last, Ukr has to be able to defend the new border and this means BOTH keeping the fortified parts of Donbas and foreign troops stationed there along w Ukr troops. It’s the only realistic way to deter a 3rd Ru invasion.
New blog post introducing Causion - a web app for causal inference teaching and learning: pedermisager.org/blog/causion....
**Part 1: From Bayesian inference to Bayesian workflow** 1. Bayesian theory and Bayesian practice 2. Statistical modeling and workflow 3. Computational tools 4. Introduction to workflow: Modeling performance on a multiple choice exam **Part 2: Statistical workflow** 5. Building statistical models 6. Using simulations to capture uncertainty 7. Prediction, generalization, and causal inference 8. Visualizing and checking fitted models 9. Comparing and improving models 10. Statistical inference and scientific inference **Part 3: Computational workflow** 11. Fitting statistical models 12. Diagnosing and fixing problems with fitting 13. Approximate algorithms and approximate models 14. Simulation-based calibration checking 15. Statistical modeling as software development
**4. Case studies** 16. Coding a series of models: Simulated data of movie ratings 17. Prior specification for regression models: Reanalysis of a sleep study 18. Predictive model checking and comparison: Clinical trial 19. Building up to a hierarchical model: Coronavirus testing 20. Using a fitted model for decision analysis: Mixture model for time series competition 21. Posterior predictive checking: Stochastic learning in dogs 22. Incremental development and testing: Black cat adoptions 23. Debugging a model: World Cup football 24. Leave-one-out cross validation model checking and comparison: Roaches 25. Model building and expansion: Golf putting 26. Model building with latent variables: Markov models for animal movement 27. Model building: Time-series decomposition for birthdays 28. Models for regression coefficients and variable selection: Student grades 29. Sampling problems with latent variables: No vehicles in the park 30. Challenge of multimodality: Differential equation for planetary motion 31. Simulation-based calibration checking in model development workflow **Appendices** A. Statistical and computational workflow for Bayesians and non-Bayesians B. How to get the most out of Bayesian Data Analysis
Bayesian Workflow by
Andrew Gelman, Aki Vehtari, @rmcelreath.bsky.social with @danpsimpson.bsky.social, @charlesm993.bsky.social, @yulingy.bsky.social, Lauren Kennedy, Jonah Gabry, @paulbuerkner.com, @modrakm.bsky.social, @vianeylb.bsky.social
(in production, estimated copy-editing time 6 weeks)
Important read from @evehubscher.bsky.social and @sattlersthomas.bsky.social - straight into my syllabus on crisis politics.
Very proud of the publication of this article, led by the brilliant @cvalebeek.bsky.social. We comprehensively test the causal effect of political trust on turnout and party choice, by breaking down these effects by trust levels, trust variability, and trust change events.
Plus: cool visualisations.
we have 5 positions open at @goetheuni.bsky.social in Frankfurt
- a 4,5 year postdoc in my @erc.europa.eu project on the educational cleavage
- 2 postdoc & 2 PhD positions, 4 years, in a research group on Reconfiguration & Internalization of Social Structure
www.uni-frankfurt.de/48794784/FB0...
Not convinced… for reasons already mentioned (financial crisis, sovereign debt criss,… austerity). See for instance: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
🚨 3-Year Postdoc in Political Science at Aarhus University 🚨
I’m seeking to recruit a postdoc for my @erc.europa.eu research project 𝑬𝑸𝑼𝑰𝑳𝑰𝑩𝑹𝑰𝑼𝑴 on state-citizen interactions.
Link and more information in second post.
Position Start: Fall 2026
Application Deadline: ‼️ February 5, 2026, 23:59 CET ‼️
🚨 ‼️ Five days left to apply for the postdoc in Political Text Analysis in the MULTIREP ERC project 👇.
Use your last chance to apply 😉
For those that want to put their money where their democracy is:
@direkt36.bsky.social (hu)
@investigacecz.bsky.social (cz)
@vsquare.bsky.social (CEE)
@decorrespondent.nl (nl)
@mediapart.fr (fr)
... as well as Fabio Franchino & Camilla Mariotto "Balancing Pressures" on European economic governance www.cambridge.org/core/books/b...
Reviewed together with the excellent books by @rsenninger.bsky.social @annebind.bsky.social
@sorenserritzlew.bsky.social and colleagues "Policy Preparation Inside the European Commission" global.oup.com/academic/pro...
Happy to see the review of the book by @nenaoana.bsky.social @alexmoise.bsky.social and Hanspeter Kriesi on the EU and COVID recently published at Oxford University Press by Reinout van der Veer at the @jei-publication.bsky.social www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Lots of interesting things to chew on, e.g., comparison of EU Peace Facility (Africa: APF and Ukraine: EPF) that reminded me on this literature on the politics of public policy instruments. Switching from one to the other entails different dynamics.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...
Brilliant lecture by @uelistaeger.bsky.social on work with @tonihaastrup.bsky.social on EU's geopolitical turn and its effects on relationship with Africa - at the Unige GSI and roundtable with @catherinehoeffler.bsky.social Dêlidji Eric Degila and Didier Péclard
www.unige.ch/gsi/genevaaf...
From the famous stats paper: www.youtube.com/watch?v=HdOh...
Very much this 👇 Goal is 75% reach, almost there!
Brilliant initiative, agree with @unabergmane.bsky.social - there are lots of very good books from and on Ukraine, like Zhadan's The Orphanage or @popovaprof.bsky.social and @oxanashevel.bsky.social Russia and Ukraine: Entangled Histories, Diverging States, and much more!
