www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026...
12.02.2026 12:39
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We did a Taiwan Talks show on Myanmar's 'sham election', to discuss its electoral integrity, China's stakes in Burmese politics, and future of 🇲🇲 democracy movement
With me were
- Burmese scholar Nini Peng,
- Soe Myint, co-founder of @mizzimadailynews.substack.com.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=tT2f...
Great to talk about the significance of the latest scoop re onset of a US-Taiwan JFCC ("Joint Firepower Coordination Center") for Taiwan Plus.
In discussion with me were 2 defense experts, Kitsch Liao, and Bryce Barros.
- Blue-on-Blue
- Deep Strike + Deterrence
- Defense-Industrial cooperation
We recorded a talk show to discuss Canada-China reset amid rupture in US' relations with traditional friends and allies, from Taiwan's perspective.
Charles Wu, Ronan Fu, and I explored the scope for middle power strategic autonomy & rebalancing btw US-China today.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=pgFP...
I wrote about #Taiwan’s anxiety and opportunity as it reacts to the new U.S. National Defense Strategy, for the Atlantic Council.
The NDS 2026 does not mention Taiwan even once. But when life gives you lemons, it’s time to make lemonade.
www.atlanticcouncil.org/dispatches/w...
Two global trading houses that brokered an opaque deal with the Trump admin this month to sell Venezuelan oil were previously prosecuted for bribery schemes involving oil sales elsewhere… A senior trader at Vitol donated $6 million to Trump’s 2024 election. www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
"Following the Ukraine-US meeting, Trump lauded Putin, saying the Russian president “wants to see Ukraine succeed”.
This is becoming farcical
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... via @FT
You must react everyday to what is happening. But that is no way to write a book or a sentence.
-James Baldwin, intv w Joe Walker, 1972
A solid majority (60%) of Americans now support direct US military commitment in the defense of #Taiwan, the latest 2025 Reagan National Defense Survey finds.
That's up from 48% just a year ago.
www.reaganfoundation.org/reagan-insti...
The fact that we see repeat China-Philippines maritime confrontations in the South China Sea over the last 2 years, and in September China created a national nature reserve at the disputed Scarborough Shoal, are likely diversionary tactics partly driven by this. Be prepared for more to come. /9
PLA is a military that is in no state to start any serious fight. Though it is more than ready to stir up small scale skirmishes and grayzone tactics with neighbors to generate useful political diversion and let off some internal steam. /8
The PLA is in crutches; it's experiencing a broken chain of command and low morale (who's going to feel good about their job security when even all their big bosses repeatedly and suddenly get removed left and right with little to no prior sign?). /7
- Navy Commander Hu Zhongming
- Navy Political Commissar Yuan Huazhi (who was already publicly purged last month)
Huge occasion for Armament Dept, Southern Theater Command, and Navy, yet all of their top leaders are most likely being actively investigated or already purged. /6
Other relevant 4-star Generals who you would expect to show up at this big celebration for their portfolios were all noticeably absent. These include:
- CMC Armament Department Director Xu Wenqiang
- Southern Theater Commander Wu Yanan
- Southern Theater Command Political Commissar Wang Wenquan.../5
There were all top level military bodies for sure. Yet, aside from CMC Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia, there was not a single 4-star general and/or admiral at the ceremony.
That is 0. Zero. Zilch. /4
Per Xinhua news agency, Chinese President Xi Jinping attended the commissioning ceremony, as well as "relevant comrade officials from the
- Central Military Commission,
- Southern Military Theater Command (which covers South China Sea),
- and the Navy". /3
It's a huge occasion for China, as the Fujian is China's second autonomously developed aircraft carrier, and China's first to feature electromagnetic catapult, which significantly accelerates the speed of launching military aircrafts atop aircraft carriers. /2
China's ongoing military purge is devastating its Navy and South China Sea forces, and fueling more grayzone coercion across South & Southeast Asias.
Last week China's 3rd aircraft carrier the 'Fujian' officially entered service in Hainan Province, the closest province to maritime SE Asia. /1🧵
US used to rally allies to deter China together. Like Antony Blinken used to say, they "approached China from a position of strength (in numbers)".
Now Europeans rush to accompany Zellensky as he meets Trump, also to help him "approach Trump from a position of strength"
www.bbc.com/news/article...
Publication Day for Ghost Nation is July 17 - now only 45 days away.
Pre-order today and be among the first to read Taiwan's story, as told by many of the people who have shaped this inspiring and vitally important country.
www.panmacmillan.com/authors/chri...
This goes to show that as is usual for the Chinese strategic tradition, there is no use for military diplomacy when the much grander strategic foundation between the US and China is being actively redefined. /7
Sending relatively lower-level Chinese officials (instead of the Defense Minister):
- lowers the temperature without softening per se, and it
- disables the US from attempting negotiations across policy domains, defense and trade. --US DefSec vs Chinese bureau level officials? What's the point? /6
3. And nor does Beijing want to allow opportunity for US to use tariff negotiations to extract meaningful concessions from China on regional security matters.
So when stuck in a land of no good options, perhaps the path of least resistance is to simply #PlayDead and lower the stakes. /5
1. China can’t soften down now, not when US is publicly demanding it.
2. But tough security posturing might sour the mood with the US, and affect tariff negotiations. /4
The cloud of the tariff war negotiations looms over SLD.
As the premier Asian security forum, SLD is usually when Chinese Defense Ministers (who are all career soldiers) project toughness and draws their redlines. /3
Two explanations come to mind, one international and one domestic.
Internationally, there is not much role for military diplomacy to play when strategic foundation is being actively redefined. /2
Big news re Shangri-La Dialogue 2025: For the first time since 2019, Chinese Defense Minister will not be attending.
China is allowing SLD25 to become US DefSec Pete Hegeseth’s one-man show, and it'll be a missed opportunity for US-China to stabilize ties amid uncertainty.
Why? /1
Pleasure to do a show with my esteemed colleague and friend, Charles Wu, to discuss #Japan’s balancing act between Beijing and Washington, starting with Japanese PM Ishiba’s recent Southeast Asian charm offensive.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=RAsM...
WELKER: Your secretary of state says everyone who's here, citizens and non-citizens, deserve due process. Do you agree?
TRUMP: I don't know. I'm not a lawyer. I don't know.
WELKER: Don't you need to uphold the Constitution?
TRUMP: I don't know
