Valentin Amrhein's Avatar

Valentin Amrhein

@vamrhein

Ecology, conservation, statistics, reproducibility https://camargue.unibas.ch Retire statistical significance https://nature.com/articles/d41586-019-00857-9

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03.01.2025
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Latest posts by Valentin Amrhein @vamrhein

Three people with a Bee Friendly Insector remote sensing insect monitoring system in a renaturated quarry.

Three people with a Bee Friendly Insector remote sensing insect monitoring system in a renaturated quarry.

Two people setting up a Bee Friendly Insector remote sensing insect monitoring system in a renaturated quarry.

Two people setting up a Bee Friendly Insector remote sensing insect monitoring system in a renaturated quarry.

Today we set up two insect monitoring stations in the glorious sunshine as part of a Masters thesis project. We will be comparing this with traditional monitoring to improve our understanding of the role of AI to supplement and enhance insect monitoring 🐝πŸͺ°πŸ¦‹πŸ’š @globalchangeeco.bsky.social

05.03.2026 14:07 πŸ‘ 6 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
Birds are vanishing from tropical forests. Is another β€˜silent spring’ coming? As mysterious bird declines crop up in the Amazon and beyond, scientists suspect climate change may be to blame

"The number of birds captured in mist nets plummeted by 40% between 2001 and 2014. Likewise, bird numbers fell by 50% during systematic surveys of birds by sight and sound. The most severe declines occurred among species that feed on insects."

27.02.2026 05:52 πŸ‘ 12 πŸ” 11 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Sage Journals: Discover world-class research Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.

We promote relaxing long-held views of what a statistical interval does, or should, represent and see interpreting confidence or credible intervals as compatibility intervals as a step in this direction.

Giving less power to statistical power
doi.org/10.1177/0023...

26.02.2026 15:53 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Sure! We wrote:
While similar cautions apply broadly for statistical methods, in power-related practices we often see blatant ignoring of the underlying model and its connection to theoretical error rates, leading to overconfident expectations about reality and questionable study design decisions.

24.02.2026 09:20 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
Sage Journals: Discover world-class research Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.

A successful study should result in useful information about how compatible the data (and background assumptions) are with values large (or small) enough to be deemed practically important.

Giving less power to statistical power
doi.org/10.1177/0023...

24.02.2026 08:50 πŸ‘ 7 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 2
Front cover of my book, titled "Comparative musicology: Evolution, universals, and the science of the world's music" (published today by Oxford University Press)

Front cover of my book, titled "Comparative musicology: Evolution, universals, and the science of the world's music" (published today by Oxford University Press)

1st of my 4-page essay published in Nature today titled "Music is not a universal language - but it can bring us together when words fail"
Picture caption: "Puerto Rican rapper Bad Bunny (centre) performed in Spanish at the half-time show of the 2026 American Football Super Bowl LX."

1st of my 4-page essay published in Nature today titled "Music is not a universal language - but it can bring us together when words fail" Picture caption: "Puerto Rican rapper Bad Bunny (centre) performed in Spanish at the half-time show of the 2026 American Football Super Bowl LX."

My book is now published! 🌏🎢πŸ§ͺ

You can download it for free at academic.oup.com/book/62353 - I’d be grateful if you do!
I also published an accessible summary with audio/video today in @nature.com: www.nature.com/articles/d41...
Try reading that first, then give the whole book a read if you like it!

23.02.2026 12:10 πŸ‘ 108 πŸ” 50 πŸ’¬ 8 πŸ“Œ 5
β€œGiving less power to statistical power” | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

β€œGiving less power to statistical power”
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/02/22/g...

22.02.2026 14:46 πŸ‘ 12 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

ERROR RATES ARE HYPOTHETICAL!!

"They seem to bring an air of objectivity and comfort to an otherwise challenging and messy research process; but their roots inhabit the same soil as statistical hypothesis tests that have been criticized for decades"

20.02.2026 16:09 πŸ‘ 34 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
Sage Journals: Discover world-class research Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.

Giving less power to statistical power (Higgs & Amrhein)
doi.org/10.1177/0023...

20.02.2026 15:18 πŸ‘ 11 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 2
Preview
Die, Dichotomy We have studied 21 435 unique randomized controlled trials (RCTs) from the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (CDSR).Of these trials, 7224 (34%) have a continuous (numerical) outcome and 14 211 (...

Die, Dichotomy.
www.linkedin.com/pulse/die-di...
A brief post encouraging you to read the original paper with @erik-van-zwet.bsky.social and @f2harrell.bsky.social .
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10....

05.02.2026 16:00 πŸ‘ 17 πŸ” 8 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 1
Preview
An Empirical Assessment of the Cost of Dichotomization of the Outcome of Clinical Trials We have studied 21 435 unique randomized controlled trials (RCTs) from the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (CDSR). Of these trials, 7224 (34%) have a continuous (numerical) outcome and 14 211....

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...

15.02.2026 07:06 πŸ‘ 19 πŸ” 10 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 2
Preview
ML616675248 - American Woodcock - Macaulay Library Macaulay Library ML616675248; Β© Karim Bouzidi; Longueuil, Quebec, Canada

Remarkable photo illustrating (American) Woodcock visual field

macaulaylibrary.org/asset/616675...

26.01.2026 17:14 πŸ‘ 63 πŸ” 13 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
Bruce Springsteen - Streets Of Minneapolis (Official Audio)
Bruce Springsteen - Streets Of Minneapolis (Official Audio) YouTube video by Bruce Springsteen

I wrote this song on Saturday, recorded it yesterday and released it to you today in response to the state terror being visited on the city of Minneapolis. It’s dedicated to the people of Minneapolis, our innocent immigrant neighbors and in memory of Alex Pretti and Renee Good.

Stay free

28.01.2026 17:02 πŸ‘ 97510 πŸ” 40895 πŸ’¬ 4302 πŸ“Œ 5366
The earth is flat (pΒ >Β 0.05): significance thresholds and the crisis of unreplicable research The widespread use of β€˜statistical significance’ as a license for making a claim of a scientific finding leads to considerable distortion of the scientific process (according to the American Statistic...

Good overview of the history, Gosset mentioned, he worked at Guiness and had to publish as Student, hence Student t-test, he was interested in the problems associated with small sample sizes.

peerj.com/articles/3544/

08.07.2025 07:55 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
Nightingales are known for their remarkable vocal flexibility. During their night-time singing duels, they adjust both the pitch and timing of their songs to match those of their rivals. - Copyright Β© MPI for Biological Intelligence / Susanne Seltmann

Nightingales are known for their remarkable vocal flexibility. During their night-time singing duels, they adjust both the pitch and timing of their songs to match those of their rivals. - Copyright Β© MPI for Biological Intelligence / Susanne Seltmann

Nightingales are masters of imitation! New research shows: During territorial contests, a male matches a rival’s song in real time by tracking and imitating both, pitch and syllable duration. This shows a remarkable precision in hearing and v...
weiterlesen

13.01.2026 09:13 πŸ‘ 8 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Redefine soil health: Nature conservation needs soil degradation Applied conservation management in terrestrial nature reserves mainly focuses on aboveground species such as plants, insects, or birds. The belowground ecosyste

Redefine soil health: Nature conservation needs soil degradation. @jaliedtke.bsky.social has published her first preprint – we are looking forward to comments and discussions!
dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn...

05.01.2026 17:26 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 6 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
Redefine soil health: Nature conservation needs soil degradation Applied conservation management in terrestrial nature reserves mainly focuses on aboveground species such as plants, insects, or birds. The belowground ecosyste

Redefine soil health: Nature conservation needs soil degradation. @jaliedtke.bsky.social has published her first preprint – we are looking forward to comments and discussions!
dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn...

05.01.2026 17:26 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 6 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
A table showing profit margins of major publishers. A snippet of text related to this table is below.

1. The four-fold drain
1.1 Money
Currently, academic publishing is dominated by profit-oriented, multinational companies for
whom scientific knowledge is a commodity to be sold back to the academic community who
created it. The dominant four are Elsevier, Springer Nature, Wiley and Taylor & Francis,
which collectively generated over US$7.1 billion in revenue from journal publishing in 2024
alone, and over US$12 billion in profits between 2019 and 2024 (Table 1A). Their profit
margins have always been over 30% in the last five years, and for the largest publisher
(Elsevier) always over 37%.
Against many comparators, across many sectors, scientific publishing is one of the most
consistently profitable industries (Table S1). These financial arrangements make a substantial
difference to science budgets. In 2024, 46% of Elsevier revenues and 53% of Taylor &
Francis revenues were generated in North America, meaning that North American
researchers were charged over US$2.27 billion by just two for-profit publishers. The
Canadian research councils and the US National Science Foundation were allocated US$9.3
billion in that year.

A table showing profit margins of major publishers. A snippet of text related to this table is below. 1. The four-fold drain 1.1 Money Currently, academic publishing is dominated by profit-oriented, multinational companies for whom scientific knowledge is a commodity to be sold back to the academic community who created it. The dominant four are Elsevier, Springer Nature, Wiley and Taylor & Francis, which collectively generated over US$7.1 billion in revenue from journal publishing in 2024 alone, and over US$12 billion in profits between 2019 and 2024 (Table 1A). Their profit margins have always been over 30% in the last five years, and for the largest publisher (Elsevier) always over 37%. Against many comparators, across many sectors, scientific publishing is one of the most consistently profitable industries (Table S1). These financial arrangements make a substantial difference to science budgets. In 2024, 46% of Elsevier revenues and 53% of Taylor & Francis revenues were generated in North America, meaning that North American researchers were charged over US$2.27 billion by just two for-profit publishers. The Canadian research councils and the US National Science Foundation were allocated US$9.3 billion in that year.

A figure detailing the drain on researcher time.

1. The four-fold drain

1.2 Time
The number of papers published each year is growing faster than the scientific workforce,
with the number of papers per researcher almost doubling between 1996 and 2022 (Figure
1A). This reflects the fact that publishers’ commercial desire to publish (sell) more material
has aligned well with the competitive prestige culture in which publications help secure jobs,
grants, promotions, and awards. To the extent that this growth is driven by a pressure for
profit, rather than scholarly imperatives, it distorts the way researchers spend their time.
The publishing system depends on unpaid reviewer labour, estimated to be over 130 million
unpaid hours annually in 2020 alone (9). Researchers have complained about the demands of
peer-review for decades, but the scale of the problem is now worse, with editors reporting
widespread difficulties recruiting reviewers. The growth in publications involves not only the
authors’ time, but that of academic editors and reviewers who are dealing with so many
review demands.
Even more seriously, the imperative to produce ever more articles reshapes the nature of
scientific inquiry. Evidence across multiple fields shows that more papers result in
β€˜ossification’, not new ideas (10). It may seem paradoxical that more papers can slow
progress until one considers how it affects researchers’ time. While rewards remain tied to
volume, prestige, and impact of publications, researchers will be nudged away from riskier,
local, interdisciplinary, and long-term work. The result is a treadmill of constant activity with
limited progress whereas core scholarly practices – such as reading, reflecting and engaging
with others’ contributions – is de-prioritized. What looks like productivity often masks
intellectual exhaustion built on a demoralizing, narrowing scientific vision.

A figure detailing the drain on researcher time. 1. The four-fold drain 1.2 Time The number of papers published each year is growing faster than the scientific workforce, with the number of papers per researcher almost doubling between 1996 and 2022 (Figure 1A). This reflects the fact that publishers’ commercial desire to publish (sell) more material has aligned well with the competitive prestige culture in which publications help secure jobs, grants, promotions, and awards. To the extent that this growth is driven by a pressure for profit, rather than scholarly imperatives, it distorts the way researchers spend their time. The publishing system depends on unpaid reviewer labour, estimated to be over 130 million unpaid hours annually in 2020 alone (9). Researchers have complained about the demands of peer-review for decades, but the scale of the problem is now worse, with editors reporting widespread difficulties recruiting reviewers. The growth in publications involves not only the authors’ time, but that of academic editors and reviewers who are dealing with so many review demands. Even more seriously, the imperative to produce ever more articles reshapes the nature of scientific inquiry. Evidence across multiple fields shows that more papers result in β€˜ossification’, not new ideas (10). It may seem paradoxical that more papers can slow progress until one considers how it affects researchers’ time. While rewards remain tied to volume, prestige, and impact of publications, researchers will be nudged away from riskier, local, interdisciplinary, and long-term work. The result is a treadmill of constant activity with limited progress whereas core scholarly practices – such as reading, reflecting and engaging with others’ contributions – is de-prioritized. What looks like productivity often masks intellectual exhaustion built on a demoralizing, narrowing scientific vision.

A table of profit margins across industries. The section of text related to this table is below:

1. The four-fold drain
1.1 Money
Currently, academic publishing is dominated by profit-oriented, multinational companies for
whom scientific knowledge is a commodity to be sold back to the academic community who
created it. The dominant four are Elsevier, Springer Nature, Wiley and Taylor & Francis,
which collectively generated over US$7.1 billion in revenue from journal publishing in 2024
alone, and over US$12 billion in profits between 2019 and 2024 (Table 1A). Their profit
margins have always been over 30% in the last five years, and for the largest publisher
(Elsevier) always over 37%.
Against many comparators, across many sectors, scientific publishing is one of the most
consistently profitable industries (Table S1). These financial arrangements make a substantial
difference to science budgets. In 2024, 46% of Elsevier revenues and 53% of Taylor &
Francis revenues were generated in North America, meaning that North American
researchers were charged over US$2.27 billion by just two for-profit publishers. The
Canadian research councils and the US National Science Foundation were allocated US$9.3
billion in that year.

A table of profit margins across industries. The section of text related to this table is below: 1. The four-fold drain 1.1 Money Currently, academic publishing is dominated by profit-oriented, multinational companies for whom scientific knowledge is a commodity to be sold back to the academic community who created it. The dominant four are Elsevier, Springer Nature, Wiley and Taylor & Francis, which collectively generated over US$7.1 billion in revenue from journal publishing in 2024 alone, and over US$12 billion in profits between 2019 and 2024 (Table 1A). Their profit margins have always been over 30% in the last five years, and for the largest publisher (Elsevier) always over 37%. Against many comparators, across many sectors, scientific publishing is one of the most consistently profitable industries (Table S1). These financial arrangements make a substantial difference to science budgets. In 2024, 46% of Elsevier revenues and 53% of Taylor & Francis revenues were generated in North America, meaning that North American researchers were charged over US$2.27 billion by just two for-profit publishers. The Canadian research councils and the US National Science Foundation were allocated US$9.3 billion in that year.

The costs of inaction are plain: wasted public funds, lost researcher time, compromised
scientific integrity and eroded public trust. Today, the system rewards commercial publishers
first, and science second. Without bold action from the funders we risk continuing to pour
resources into a system that prioritizes profit over the advancement of scientific knowledge.

The costs of inaction are plain: wasted public funds, lost researcher time, compromised scientific integrity and eroded public trust. Today, the system rewards commercial publishers first, and science second. Without bold action from the funders we risk continuing to pour resources into a system that prioritizes profit over the advancement of scientific knowledge.

We wrote the Strain on scientific publishing to highlight the problems of time & trust. With a fantastic group of co-authors, we present The Drain of Scientific Publishing:

a 🧡 1/n

Drain: arxiv.org/abs/2511.04820
Strain: direct.mit.edu/qss/article/...
Oligopoly: direct.mit.edu/qss/article/...

11.11.2025 11:52 πŸ‘ 642 πŸ” 453 πŸ’¬ 8 πŸ“Œ 66
Preview
The CNRS is breaking free from the Web of Science From January 1st 2026, the CNRS will cut access to one of the largest commercial bibliometric databases, Clarivate Analytics'

The CNRS is breaking free from the Web of Science

www.cnrs.fr/en/update/cn...

04.12.2025 05:59 πŸ‘ 12 πŸ” 10 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 1

I like to think that if the military r&d had instead gone into solar we'd be where we are now by like 1992

01.12.2025 16:39 πŸ‘ 48 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0
Post image

Energy transitions can happen faster than we think:

In 2000 almost 90% of Denmark's electricity was from fossil fuels.

In 2024 less than 10% of Danish electricity was from fossil fuels.

01.12.2025 16:18 πŸ‘ 9111 πŸ” 2586 πŸ’¬ 221 πŸ“Œ 159
from Amrhein, Greenland, & McShane ("Retire statistical significance," Nature, 2019)

"For example, the authors above could have written: β€˜Like a previous study, our results suggest a 20% increase in risk of new-onset atrial fibrillation in patients given the anti-inflammatory drugs. Nonetheless, a risk difference ranging from a 3% decrease, a small negative association, to a 48% increase, a substantial positive association, is also reasonably compatible with our data, given our assumptions.’ "

from Amrhein, Greenland, & McShane ("Retire statistical significance," Nature, 2019) "For example, the authors above could have written: β€˜Like a previous study, our results suggest a 20% increase in risk of new-onset atrial fibrillation in patients given the anti-inflammatory drugs. Nonetheless, a risk difference ranging from a 3% decrease, a small negative association, to a 48% increase, a substantial positive association, is also reasonably compatible with our data, given our assumptions.’ "

from Amrhein, Greenland, & McShane ("Retire statistical significance," Nature, 2019)

"Whatever the statistics show, it is fine to suggest reasons for your results, but discuss a range of potential explanations, not just favoured ones. Inferences should be scientific, and that goes far beyond the merely statistical. Factors such as background evidence, study design, data quality and understanding of underlying mechanisms are often more important than statistical measures such as P values or intervals."

from Amrhein, Greenland, & McShane ("Retire statistical significance," Nature, 2019) "Whatever the statistics show, it is fine to suggest reasons for your results, but discuss a range of potential explanations, not just favoured ones. Inferences should be scientific, and that goes far beyond the merely statistical. Factors such as background evidence, study design, data quality and understanding of underlying mechanisms are often more important than statistical measures such as P values or intervals."

I like this from @vamrhein.bsky.social et al. I assigned it to my class last semester and tried to explain that p-values measure how compatible (vs. surprising) the data are with the null, given our assumptions. But yeah, tests & CIs are hard to understand!

www.blakemcshane.com/Papers/natur...

22.11.2025 18:31 πŸ‘ 6 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
book cover of a pocket guide to scientific writing and publishing

book cover of a pocket guide to scientific writing and publishing

"This is the book we need to give every single new PhD student in our labs."
I love reading comments on the book
Thanks!!

27.10.2025 12:56 πŸ‘ 17 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
What I've learned about (my) shaky bow Has it ever happened to you that you could hardly control your bow in a concert or some other challenging situation? That you tried to fight bow-trembling by gripping the bow harder or even stopping t...

How do you cope, when your bow arm starts shaking? How do you prevent that from happening in the first place? It's a fascinating and in-depth read about a topic that affects nearly every violinist at some point.
www.violinist.com/blog/Xaver/2...

20.10.2025 17:39 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
What I've learned about (my) shaky bow Has it ever happened to you that you could hardly control your bow in a concert or some other challenging situation? That you tried to fight bow-trembling by gripping the bow harder or even stopping t...

Are you playing a bowed music instrument? Then you might find this blog post interesting: www.violinist.com/blog/Xaver/2...

20.10.2025 15:54 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Interpreting p values and interval estimates based on practical relevance: guidance for the sports medicine clinician Statistical methods are employed in medical research to estimate effects of treatments or health conditions across populations.1 2 This paper presents a framework to avoid common misinterpretations th...

Excellent new editorial and guideline on interpreting p values and interval estimates
bjsm.bmj.com/content/earl...

09.10.2025 10:32 πŸ‘ 21 πŸ” 6 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1
Preview
Helsinki goes a full year without a traffic death A city traffic engineer credits the success to lower speed limits and smarter design.

Quelle: yle.fi/a/74-20174831

31.07.2025 06:38 πŸ‘ 248 πŸ” 39 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 1

Great to see our new paper "Health losses attributed to anthropogenic climate change" out in print today in @natclimate.nature.com, which builds on our landscaping project on climate-health attribution a couple of years ago, funded by @wellcometrust.bsky.social

17.09.2025 13:43 πŸ‘ 52 πŸ” 29 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Post image Post image

For Trump and his allies, renewable energy is akin to the new Cracker Barrel logo: something they oppose largely because it’s different and seems to be forced upon them. But unlike the logo, there’s no going back on wind and solar.
www.pbump.net/o/why-trump-...

06.09.2025 13:22 πŸ‘ 223 πŸ” 35 πŸ’¬ 5 πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
Could AI slow science? Confronting the production-progress paradox

Could AI slow science? Confronting the production-progress paradox

#AI #GenAI #ChatGPT #Claude #Science #WCRI2026 #WCRI

www.aisnakeoil.com/p/could-ai-s...

23.08.2025 23:28 πŸ‘ 9 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 2