So far my greatest accomplishment as a dad is convincing my kids that they actually really like thunder
06.03.2026 23:30
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So far my greatest accomplishment as a dad is convincing my kids that they actually really like thunder
+EV betting isn’t glamorous.
@Between_SethFF told me once that my betting strategy "makes him sick."
My bank account disagrees.
You’ll have losing days.
You’ll have variance.
But if you consistently bet good prices at scale, the math starts working in your favor.
That’s
And that's just one of the tools we're working on at @BettingPros.
We have a TON coming soon.
And for now, you can get 20% off a premium subscription, which means you can get a FULL YEAR for less than $100 🔥
Use code MAYO for 20% off 👇
By not relying on a single sharp book, we're reducing variance because sharpness varies from book to book and market to market. 🧠
The results so far have been incredible, and we're actively working on adding more sports and markets
And the best part is we didn't rely on a single sharp book.
For every market we post, the @BettingPros data science team went back and evaluated exactly which books have been the sharpest.
That’s what we're buildling with the @BettingPros Market-Based EV tool.
It compares sportsbook prices to sharp market benchmarks to surface bets with positive expected value.
Basically: where the price is wrong.
That’s also why tools that compare lines to sharp market pricing are so powerful.
Instead of guessing who wins…
You can focus on finding value relative to the market.
This is why many sharp bettors treat betting more like trading than predicting.
They're ok with losing because they know the long math is in their favor.
• Where is the market price?
• Where is someone offering a better number?
• Is the difference enough to create EV?
If you only place 3 bets a week…
Variance can dominate results.
But if you place hundreds of +EV bets over time, the edge begins to show up in your bankroll.
It becomes a law of large numbers game.
Edges in sports betting are small.
Often 1–4%.
That’s why volume matters.
Expected value simply means:
If this exact bet were placed thousands of times, would you profit?
If the answer is yes → it’s +EV.
If the answer is no → it’s negative EV.
Once you know the true market price, you can identify mistakes.
Sharp market: -150
Sportsbook offering: -130
That difference creates positive expected value (+EV).
You’re getting a better price than the market consensus.
The market already does most of the predictive work.
Sharp sportsbooks, prediction markets, exchanges, and high-liquidity markets help establish the true price of a bet.
These markets are usually closer to efficient.
A lot of bettors think the goal is simple:
“Pick winners.”
But sportsbooks don’t make money because bettors pick the wrong team.
They make money because bettors take bad prices and bet with their gut, and as a result, the bettors lose money in the long run.
Stop chasing picks and betting based on vibes.
Start doing what the sharps do and focus on PRICE.
Here’s how +EV volume betting works (and why it compounds over time). 💰 🧵
😤
Steven Spielberg, Morgan Freeman, Dinosaurs.
Unexpected by whom?
Klint Kubiac. Not a fan of Geno Smith.
😬
Robinhood showed us who they are back in 2021. It's amazing to me that they still exist after that. And since then, as they've grown, they've only gotten worse.
You should not trust them with your money or data. t.co/CQyNFPdAmT
Ever since Underdog dropped their odds, they have REALLY tightened up their lines.
🎾 Onyx Odds Play
Alexandra Eala vs. Dayana Yastremska
Under 22.5 Games (-125)
Sharp liquidity on exchanges is sitting around:
• Novig: +127 / +126 / +125
That implies the Under should be closer to the -130s, where it is on Novig and ProphetX
📉 Onyx Odds is offering -125
A 2nd round pick for D.J. Moore, you say?
Stopped the cold streak on Underdog yesterday 😂
Finished February up 75 units
Now up 6.6 units to start March
Let’s. Cook. 🧑🍳
If you have BetMGM and BetRivers, there's a great arbitrage opportunity right now on Nic Claxton's rebounds line.
Both are PLUS MONEY.
u6.5 is +105 on BetMGM
o6.5 is +102 on BetRivers
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