08.03.2026 21:16
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The Geordi LaForge meme demonstrating hesitation for a conventional “causal” direct graphical model, showing only observed variables and unobserved confounders, and enthusiasm for a directed graphical model that represents a full joint probabilistic model including all observed variables and all latent/unobserved variables.
The Geordi LaForge meme demonstrating hesitation for a conventional “causal” direct graphical model, showing only observed variables and unobserved confounders, and enthusiasm for a directed graphical model that represents a full joint probabilistic model including all observed variables and all latent/unobserved variables.
“Large Deviations with Deuschel” sounds like weekly opinion column or talk show segment…
move slow and repair things
Perpetual reminder: one does not model a likelihood function, one derives a likelihood function from an observational model and a particular observation.
Perpetual reminder: one does not model a likelihood function, one derives a likelihood function from an observational model and a particular observation.
Why sample from a categorical pseudo-random number generator when you can be ridiculous? This is how I now draw contest winners over on patreon dot com, www.patreon.com/c/betanalpha.
Why sample from a categorical pseudo-random number generator when you can be ridiculous? This is how I now draw contest winners over on patreon dot com, www.patreon.com/c/betanalpha.
In the time before Noether's Theorem.
restaurant manager: hey so, sorry to bother you, but is that a service animal? it's just, we have a policy-
jabba the hutt: je wonna wonga, bazda wahota shonga
salacious b crumb: AHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
restaurant manager: ah. ok. cool
‘Waffle’ the noun and ‘waffle’ the verb are not etymologically related.
The noun is related to the Old English ‘wefan,’ which means “to weave.”
The verb is related to the English ‘woff,’ which means “to yelp.”
FWIW: we never waffle on eating waffles.
Statistics is more than just choosing between black box models.
Statistics is more than just choosing between black box models.
I'm too depressed to dunk on the constant stream of bad statistics takes on the site. If, however, you're looking to lurk through or engage in productive discussions on (narratively generative) probabilistic modeling then drop by the Discord server I set up, www.patreon.com/posts/genera....
I'm too depressed to dunk on the constant stream of bad statistics takes on the site. If, however, you're looking to lurk through or engage in productive discussions on (narratively generative) probabilistic modeling then drop by the Discord server I set up, www.patreon.com/posts/genera....
Determining the mediant of two rational numbers graphically. The slopes of the blue and red segments from the origin to two points in the first quadrant are two rational numbers, using these as two edges of a parallelogrom, the slope of the diagaonal, drawn as a green segment, is their mediant.
The 'mediant' of two fractions a/b and c/d is (a+c)/(b+d).
Beginners sometimes add fractions this way by mistake.
But it's important in number theory...
... and I just learned it has a simple geometrical meaning, too!
don't even care
Today, in honour of WEB DuBois's birthday in 1868, the @publicdomainrev.bsky.social features the hand-drawn infographics DuBois made with his students to depict the conditions of African-American life in 1900.
Arts-based pedagogy all those years ago!
buff.ly/3kdWqRD
Happy 40th anniversary to "The Legend of Zelda" (released on February 21, 1986).
Give up all hope ye who model here…
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INCOMING CASE STUDY
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HTML: betanalpha.github.io/assets/chapt...
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The _real_ cool kids aren’t -maxxing everything, they’re -uncertaintyquantifyying.
As always, a huge thanks to my supporters over on patreon dot com, www.patreon.com/c/betanalpha. Covector+ supporters have enjoyed not only early access to this case study for the past month but also a long video review where I work through the entire piece.
Perhaps just for my own entertainment I also spend way too much time doing some software archeology to investigate some awkward behaviors and then demonstrate various ways to accommodate discretized observations.
The models considered demonstrate pairwise comparison modeling and mixture modeling techniques, as well as how those techniques can be integrated together into consistent models. Each is also complemented with extensive prior modeling, prior checking, and retrodictive checking.
In this case study I analyze reading time data, comparing and contrasting — and ultimately combining! — two popular hypotheses for how we comprehend words as we parse them. Who needs model comparison when we have joint models?
< warning klaxon >
INCOMING CASE STUDY
< begin Star Fox boss music >
HTML: betanalpha.github.io/assets/chapt...
PDF: betanalpha.github.io/assets/chapt...
Image from This close-up image of a tree core was captured using “TIM”, the lab’s homemade high-resolution…
Image from This close-up image of a tree core was captured using “TIM”, the lab’s homemade high-resolution…
Update from Tumblr: This close-up image of a tree core was captured using “TIM”, the lab’s homemade high-resolution…
Click directly on the link in our Bluesky description, or copy and paste the below:
https://temporalecology.tumblr.com/post/808864438750969856
