I guess it depends on how long the increase lasts. The bet seems to be that any geopolitical spike is fleeting.
07.03.2026 01:46
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I guess it depends on how long the increase lasts. The bet seems to be that any geopolitical spike is fleeting.
Each sentence was worse than the one before it.
I think he does like using the toys. But not when it affects stocks or gas prices. He's now bumping up against that limit. (My completely uneducated opinion.)
Oh interesting. My first thought was the opposite!
My unsubstantiated guess is that Trump will taco in the next few days. Not sure if the market will react or not. But I think he'll declare "victory" and pack it up.
Why? What changed?
S&P over the past 3 months below. We went through: an entire earnings season, an attack on Venezuela, a threatened attack on Greenland, a meltdown in software stocks, and now an all out war with Iran.
And yet... the high/low range here is only 2.9%. That's really something.
Here's my question: even if Trump tacos, will that stop the Iranian bombing of Hormuz? He'll need a ceasefire agreement.
Dow Jones vs S&P 500... Today is a great example of why the Dow Jones is broken. GS and CAT are over 20% of the index. And both are down today -3.5%ish. That's why it looks so much worse.
Brent crude. $84 looks like a ceiling. If it breaks that, maybe moves higher.
(Disclaimer: I dont know what I'm talking about.)
Rate cuts? What rate cuts? Futures now pricing only 1.58 cuts by yearend
Long SOXX / Short IGV
Yeah. One of two things has to happen:
(1) total defeat of Iran's rocket and drone capability
(2) ceasefire
Both things seem far away
Economist covering it now. But I'm surprised it's not getting more press. 20% of the world's oil supply is cut off. No one else concerned about that? NYT? WaPo?
Hurricane Sandy in NYC in 2012 used that, I think
Wow, huge reversal in International stocks over past two days. All of Feb's gains were erased quickly.
Only one of two things will reopen Hormuz:
(1) ceasefire
(2) stop all Iranian missiles/drones
Both seem far away at the moment.
Some great scenes with future Senator Fred Thompson! "This business will get out of control and we'll be lucky to live through it!" Seems appropriate
Apparently, war was priced in already
Yeah. I expected worse
Big spike across the Energy complex after the Vez attack. Will probably move higher tomorrow.
The rule of thumb is 2-3c per gallon for every $1 of oil increase.
It's effectively shut at the moment.
The red dots are oil tankers. The only red dot in the strait at the moment is Iranian. (from marine traffic website)
Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has all but stopped since yesterday.
Read the @financialtimes.com Economics editor, Sam Fleming's analysis of what the impact the war in Iran will have on the global economy
www.ft.com/content/31bf...
"a better and more patriotic service"... makes my skin crawl
"... the likes of which the world has never seen..."
I wonder what movie he got that from. And just kept it forever.
