@70sbachchan
Alternately Defiant, Dispirited, and Despondent. Without illusions but not disillusioned. Focus on Climate, Inequality and Development. I co-edit the Polycrisis project and newsletter https://www.phenomenalworld.org/series/the-polycrisis/
Ok its a funny meme that if Iran really did have nuclear weapons, they wouldnt be getting bombed right now by the worlds most fearsome air power. Their political and military leadership would not be killed, nor their misslie bases & air defences destroyed, nor their cities bombed.
"We knew the story of the international rules-based order was partially false, that the strongest would exempt themselves when convenient, that trade rules were enforced asymmetrically,& we knew that international law applied with varied rigor, depending on the identity of the accused or the victim"
full blown panic in the WH by the sounds of it. They want to
(1) insure more tankers with DFC
(2) provide US navy escorts to ships that are too scared;
(3) keep prices down (by trading in oil futures)
(4) increase supply (waiving india russia sanctions for 30 days)
bsky.app/profile/70sb...
Here's a prediction: Trump will start using nuclear coercion to increase US bargaining leverage very soon.
bsky.app/profile/maxb...
Solar is EU's biggest power source for first time
Solar booms that no one saw coming --Netherlands and Hungary --- are now over 40% solar, higher than Spain! Installation boomed once policy became supportive few years ago @palmapolyak.bsky.social @janfichtner.bsky.social
www.ft.com/content/0894...
2 wars in 4 years. This war will dramatically accelerate Solar +Batteries + EVs as real Energy Security.
"The rest of the world will learn an important lesson from China. Build out your renewables so you aren't as dependent on imported fossil fuels and the whims of idiots"
bsky.app/profile/just...
Is South Korea in the Iran war the Germany of the Ukraine war?
Shit hits the fan, every energy-intensive industrial sector, esp chips, ships, cars, batteries gets into trouble quickly.
"Wednesday was a day South Korean investors will never forget.
www.nytimes.com/2026/03/05/b...
"you're currently living through one of the largest positive technological revolutions in modern history - solar and batteries replacing fossil fuels - and you're hearing more about chatbots because the people who run our country make money selling oil" --@mtsw.bsky.social
bsky.app/profile/70sb...
Workers tend to herbs grown beneath solar panels in a photovoltaic plantation in Lihua, Lianyungang, Jiangsu.
An aerial view shows residential buildings with roof-mounted photovoltaic-solar panels in Yinchuan,
Great photos of China's record smashing solar boom
www.theatlantic.com/photography/...
👍"Nobody is telling you how FUCKED the data center situation actually is right now.
Every major tech company on earth just spent BILLIONS building AI data centers in the Gulf.
Microsoft. Google. Amazon. Oracle.
All of them. Sitting right there. In the middle of a warzone."
Oh man we are HAVING A NEWS DAY I see
*BLACKROCK’S $26 BILLION PRIVATE CREDIT FUND LIMITS WITHDRAWALS
Commodity markets are dramatically tiny compared to Bond Markets that are in turmoil this week.
Its not directly War -> actual Inflation
but about the change in expectations about the future.
Financial markets were expecting Central Banks to cut interest rates this year
bsky.app/profile/iank...
The rates market deeply dislikes $90 oil
great chart by @raydouglas.bsky.social
Global bonds slump as Iran war upsets rate-cut bets
www.ft.com/content/d0b4...
Gonna hear a lot about "energy security".
Sure we want energy security.
"What has changed compared to previous oil crises and oil price scares - even the 2021-22 one -is how affordable the clean energy solutions needed to replace oil and gas imports are"
KEY point by @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social
"Having spent some time on the phone with multiple banks, hedge funds and institutional investors, I think one can split the views on oil as follow:
Oil specialists: Bullish, look at Hormuz 😠
Macro / generalists: Bearish, Trump will TACO 🤭"
-- Javier Blas
bsky.app/profile/70sb...
You thought it was just Carney in Beijing this January?
The West wants an 'outside option' from US bullying....
"new world order" is about building the material basis of their sovereignty: ppl's wellbeing, energy, tech & the future
@katemac.bsky.social & I:
www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/bri...
US and Netanyahu's calculation that killing Iran's leadership and crippling aerial bombardment would bring Iran to its knees doesnt look so good now.
bsky.app/profile/did:...
Oil prices to shoot up, a inflationary shock to world economy.
Ppl will want to know why.
There is going to be a media campaign by US, Israel & Gulf Kingdoms that its coz Iran is attacking oil sites in Gulf.
Omitted will be US+ISR fearsome bombing to cripple Iran
www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/...
This week Secretary Hegseth gave an object lesson in the folly of hyper-masculine overconfidence: the administration claimed all week that it controls the war and Iran‘s destiny without boots on the ground. They forgot we live in an asymmetric world in which small acts have big economic impacts.
Commodities are trapped in the Gulf. Qatar says it will hit growth, push up energy bills and lead to shortages of products
How bad does it get for the macroeconomy depends on how long the war lasts.
Every bank research desk has estimates. 10 basis points hit to GDP per $10/barrel.
DAY 7: Prices Respond as Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi told the FT in an interview today:
"Everybody that has not called for force majeure we expect will do so in the next few days that this continues. All exporters in the Gulf region will have to call force majeure"
www.ft.com/content/be12...
Effectively TRAPPED in Gulf.
150 vessels sitting anchored. Iraq shutting down oilfields. Qatar halted LNG production. ~20% of the world's oil supply.
Rates (5-day change):
•Suezmax Gulf → Far East: $405K/day (+286%)
Ships crossing the strait:
•Tankers & Containers: down 70%
-- @M_McDonough
Oil and Gas markets are still very slow to react.
At some point the market is going to have to change its current assessment that this is a short sharp 10 day war.
The war is Lengthening. And Widening.
bsky.app/profile/did:...
This is a run on US hegemony:
Can’t produce oil because running out of places to store
Can’t ship out because Hormuz closed As no private insurer wants to take risk
Ask Uncle Sam for insurance?
But no insurer or energy trader believes US can perform its hegemonic duties… bsky.app/profile/olan...
The Trump administration's plans to use the Development Finance Corporation to insure oil tankers in the Gulf to the tune of 350bn dollars has again drawn attention to how states try to respond to emergencies when they are subject to fiscal constraints. A 🧵
www.ft.com/content/6dde...
Day 7:prices respond. Oil traders wake up to reality of war not ending soon
“Qatar has warned that war in the Middle East could “bring down the economies of the world”, predicting that all Gulf energy exporters would shut down production within weeks & drive oil to $150”
www.ft.com/content/be12...
Two "races" that will determine fate of war & world economy:
1 Interceptors vs Launchers
US+Isr destroy Iran launchers & missiles faster than Iran forces them to use up limited interceptors
2 Hormuz Tankers versus Storage
Gulf oil wells shut in because no place to store oil as Hormuz closed.
Its a risk-off in global financial markets
Energy prices are soaring, as are fossil fuel companies
But global equity markets are down
European stocks down far more than US ones coz of energy import dependence.
Inflation up -> rates to go up -> so Bond markets are down. bsky.app/profile/did:...
THIS.
"Commodity analysts in my feed: This is epic and will go down in the history books as one of the biggest supply shocks.
Mainstream media: Some slight disruptions in the availability of a few commodities might happen. Meanwhile, here's a video of another exploding launcher." - Guy Laron
"Gulf countries learning the hard way that to be an enemy of the U.S. is dangerous, but to be a friend is fatal. " -- @ryangrim.bsky.social
Israel believes Gulf Kingdoms will join its war on Iran & together they will ensure regime change
Will Kings join? Its an extraordinary risk for them to take