Tom Yates

Why the latest attempt to deter asylum seekers won't work - Free Movement From 2 March 2026 refugee status in the UK became temporary rather than permanent. This dramatic change is the Home Secretary’s attempt to deter asylum

From yesterday: Why the latest attempt to deter asylum seekers won’t work | Wyon Stansfeld

Its easier when the effect size is well into double digits - EBV MS is another unarguable one

'Generally, observational epi, perhaps some MR, then a confirmatory trial'

Which, as something of a randomisation zealot, is how I think it should usually be!

Nice. I lot of the old epi studies are covered in Geoffrey Rose's excellent Strategy of Preventive Medicine

zur Hausen prompted to look for virus in cancer tissue based on

a) studies (1950s/60s) showing women with cervical ca had e.g. younger age at sexual debut
b) rabbit work (1930s) showing HPV could cause warts and cancer
c) clinical observations that women with warts sometimes also developed cancer

I don't know when scientists became persuaded! But there was some lovely CVD epi that presumably motivated the subsequent trials, e.g. the seven countries study, which started in 1958

Correlation without a cause: an epidemiological odyssey Background. In the 1980s debate intensified over whether there was a protective effect of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) or an adverse effect

There have been loads

LDL cholesterol and CVD
Blood pressure and CVD
HPV and cervical cancer
Male circumcision and HIV

Generally, observational epi, perhaps some MR, then a confirmatory trial

But its definately getting harder, as questions with big effect sizes are answered!

Yep, robust observational studies needed to look at rare severe outcomes, outcomes over a longer time window, etc

Skim read it, and have read again now!

Presumably BiB aren't being bankrolled by Meta?

Agree we need to draw on diverse academic disciplines here, but (to me) feels easier to get diverse groups into trials than to adjust for all potential causes of heavy digital tech use in observational analyses

Aren't @danlewer.bsky.social and the BiB lot doing an RCT estimating the impact of social media use on adolescent health?

This was very neat - paper here ijpds.org/article/view...

Emissions (grams of CO2 per kilowatt hour) from North Sea gas vs LNG imports. Source: Carbon Brief analysis

Factcheck: North Sea gas is not ‘four times cleaner’ than LNG imports | @daisydunne.carbonbrief.org @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org #CBarchive

Read here: buff.ly/IoMIeUt

IDEA! To measure QoL in trials, could you match patients at baseline (1 in intervention, 1 in control arm) then ask pairs to talk at specified times and agree who is doing better across various QoL domains? Direct comparisons, not trying to place themselves somewhere on scale. Has anyone tried this?

World TB Day Symposium 2026: 2 weeks to go

Join us in London or online on 24 March for the annual UCL/LSHTM symposium

Topics include:
• Beyond the lungs
• Global trends & health systems
• The potential for AI

Details and registration: www.ucl.ac.uk/tb/events/wo...

@tb-lshtm.bsky.social

Interesting critique! Caveat - not my area of expertise

Presumably many of these outcomes are lagged?

And does the Palma Index account for the severe cuts to public services seen over 2010-24? They will have disproportionately impacted the bottom end of the income distribution

Cruelty to immigrants is not what my party stands for. It’s time for True Labour, not Blue Labour | Stella Creasy We must get back to the party’s roots before it is too late. That means embracing difference, rejecting division – and fighting for opportunities for all, says MP for Walthamstow, Stella Creasy

"There is an alternative way forward: being True – not Blue – Labour. True Labour doesn’t fear those who are different. Instead, it demands everyone contribute their abilities to society – and works to unlock such skills."

www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

Can someone point me to published comment on the pros/cons of standardised risk of bias tools vs question specific tools?

#EpiSky #StatSky

screen shot of lecture playlist links and table of lecture topics

Possums in your yard? News got you down? Fear not, I have made playlists for the A and B sections of my ongoing Statistical Rethinking course. Click the section of your choice, sit back, and forget the possums and decay of the international order while your brain updates. github.com/rmcelreath/s...

One of the worst massacres I can remember

OpenSAFELY news: you can apply to do non-COVID research, from today! | Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science We are delighted to announce that - from today - you can submit applications to the OpenSAFELY service for non-COVID-19 studies.

OpenSAFELY is open from today! Huge thanks to all who supported this vast collaboration: whole population GP data; in a productive platform; innovative privacy protections; unprecedented support from professions, privacy campaigners; &c

Now it's over to users!

www.bennett.ox.ac.uk/blog/2026/02...

How trade unions have reacted to Labour’s defeat in the Gorton and Denton by-election ‘Wake up and listen’.

“The Greens won for a simple reason. Many traditional Labour supporters, in Manchester and across the country, want to see progressive values robustly defended against the far-right, not gleefully abandoned." Andrea Egan, UNISON

Unions reaction:

If the left goes into next election divided, we risk catastrophe

Starmer should resign

His successor must rebuild a broad party of the left - explicitly reject Mahmood's performtive cruelty, stop equivocating on Netanyahu's genocide, offer bold positive policies e.g. build loads of social housing

Fall in UK net migration threatens to carve deep hole in public finances Issue is expected to come under the spotlight in chancellor Rachel Reeves’ Spring Statement

Fall in UK net migration threatens to carve deep hole in public finances ft.trib.al/x5HP0Co

A split left risks gifting Reform a seat in which they should never have been in contention

The blame here falls on both Starmer (for driving progressive folk out of the Labour Party) and the Greens (for building a second party on the left)

And no, PR isn't fairer - see Israel, South Africa, etc

This is an interesting companion chart to the top 10 nationality one. It shows differing grant rates. Why refuse so many Afghans when removals to Afghanistan are impossible? Terrible for the Afghans concerned and leaves the Home Office with huge support costs for no reason at all. Gesture admin.

Starmer is wrong to use this as an attack line

Harms of substance use are - in large part - a result of us taking a criminal justice rather than a public health approach

Starmer's son can access heroin now, should he wish, but only in a harmful way (violence, infections, overdoses, incarceration)

Meet the racists and far-right activists campaigning for Matt Goodwin in Gorton and Denton – HOPE not hate On 26 February, a parliamentary by-election will be held in Gorton and Denton and Reform UK has put up the far-right provocateur Matt Goodwin as...

REVEALED: Matt Goodwin, Reform UK’s candidate in the Gorton and Denton byelection, has been campaigning alongside racists and far-right activists in his bid to win the seat.

Read the full story:
hopenothate.org.uk/2026/02/16/m...

Worth a read

UK Palestine Action ban ruled unlawful, in humiliating blow for ministers Thousands arrested for supporting group since proscription are now in legal limbo as Mahmood says she will appeal

Right outcome.

I voted against the ban on Palestine Action because it was authoritarian, and weakened our democratic rights.

A Labour government should be building firewalls against authoritarianism - not building bridges for it.

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026...