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Paul Graf

@paulginva

Retired lawyer. Moderate. Dog lover, cat tolerator. Grandfather. Vietnam vet. History, international relations, national security, high-profile litigation, economics, and a little politics.

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Latest posts by Paul Graf @paulginva

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Trump tariffs: Customs and Border Protection tells judge it can't comply with refund order CBP told Judge Richard Eaton that the technology upgrades it plans would save more than 4 million man-hours in processing refunds for Trump's tariffs.

"CBP in a court filing disclosed it had collected about $166 billion in IEEPA tariffs since last year, involving more than 330,000 importers who made more than 53 million entries."

I can see how that might take a few weeks to sort out.

07.03.2026 02:07 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Trump has privately shown serious interest in U.S. ground troops in Iran The president’s private comments have not focused on a large-scale ground invasion of Iran, but rather on the idea of a small contingent of U.S. troops that would be used for specific strategic purpos...

Good lord! Here we go again.

07.03.2026 01:41 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

The administration:

07.03.2026 01:02 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

I don't know ... I suppose there's a possibility that <waving arms vaguely> all of this ... turns out well, but no matter how I attempt to align the Swiss cheese slices, the holes don't fit together. That makes me nervous.

07.03.2026 00:40 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Opinion | Trump’s Fantasy Is Crashing Down

"Trump seems to believe that he, like his fantasy America, exists on a different plane, utterly untouchable by the swirl of global events. The devastating consequences of his actions are not just someone else’s fault. They are someone else’s problem, too."

07.03.2026 00:17 πŸ‘ 7 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Russia is providing Iran intelligence to target U.S. forces, officials say The targeting information has included the locations of American warships and aircraft in the Middle East, the officials said.

We expected this, didn't we? And planned around it?

Just checking.

06.03.2026 23:22 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
This image is a meme about the humorous struggle of parents balancing a demanding job with childcare responsibilities over the weekend.
The text describes a situation after a stressful workday.
It highlights a well-meaning comment from someone without children.
The humor comes from the implication that for parents, the weekend is often not a break, but a different kind of busy.

This image is a meme about the humorous struggle of parents balancing a demanding job with childcare responsibilities over the weekend. The text describes a situation after a stressful workday. It highlights a well-meaning comment from someone without children. The humor comes from the implication that for parents, the weekend is often not a break, but a different kind of busy.

Happy Friday afternoon, parents of young children! Have a great weekend.πŸ˜‚

(Thank God we're beyond this stage!)

06.03.2026 21:51 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Video thumbnail

Behold the latest WH war propaganda video, titled "JUSTICE THE AMERICAN WAY".

As @seamus-malekafzali.com wrote over on X, "I don't think a more embarrassing and humiliating thing has ever been produced before by any government in human history. I somehow might be underselling it."

06.03.2026 21:38 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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The Treasury may need to borrow extra $1.6 trillion to cover the hole left by tariff ruling, says CBOβ€”adding $400 billion in debt interest by 2036 | Fortune In total, deficits post-ruling are $2 trillion larger over the 2026 to 2036 period than they were before the Supreme Court decision.

Sure, put it on the credit card.

06.03.2026 21:22 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

smaller than Iran. It didn't cause them to surrender. Russia has pounded Ukraine unmercifully for 4 years now. Ukraine hasn't surrendered. I think we'll see the same with Iran.

06.03.2026 21:19 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump

There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER! After that, and the selection of a GREAT & ACCEPTABLE Leader(s), we, and many of our wonderful and very brave allies and partners, will work tirelessly to bring Iran back from the brink of destruction, making it economically bigger, better, and stronger than ever before. IRAN WILL HAVE A GREAT FUTURE. "MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN (MIGA!).” Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP

5.44k ReTruths 17.7k Likes Mar 06, 2026, 8:50 AM

Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER! After that, and the selection of a GREAT & ACCEPTABLE Leader(s), we, and many of our wonderful and very brave allies and partners, will work tirelessly to bring Iran back from the brink of destruction, making it economically bigger, better, and stronger than ever before. IRAN WILL HAVE A GREAT FUTURE. "MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN (MIGA!).” Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP 5.44k ReTruths 17.7k Likes Mar 06, 2026, 8:50 AM

If this is the only offer on the table, I believe we'll be bombing Iran for more than two weeks.

There are serious limits on what bombing can accomplish. During Operation Rolling Thunder (2 MAR 1965 - 2 NOV 1968) the United States dropped 864,000 tons of bombs on North Vietnam, a country far, far

06.03.2026 21:19 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Americans Are Leaving the U.S. in Record Numbers More citizens are replanting overseas, drawn by a quality of life made easily affordable by the U.S.’s enviable salaries.
06.03.2026 20:45 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Morning Brew @MorningBrew

The American Dream is apparently boarding a one-way flight to Lisbon.

For the first time since the Great Depression, the US saw net negative migration in 2025, losing ~150,000 people, as in-migration fell to ~2.6-2.7M, down from nearly 6M in 2023, per the Brookings Institution.

At least 180,000 Americans moved to 15 tracked countries last year alone, part of an estimated 4-9M-strong exodus abroad, according to a WSJ analysis.

Portugal's US population has jumped 500% since Covid, Ireland welcomed 10,000 Americans in 2025 (double 2024), and US renunciation requests surged 48% in 2024.

That figure is expected to be higher when the final numbers come in for 2025.

Meanwhile, 40% of American women ages 15-44 say they'd permanently move overseas if they could, per a Gallup poll.

And the UK is seeing receipts.

Morning Brew @MorningBrew The American Dream is apparently boarding a one-way flight to Lisbon. For the first time since the Great Depression, the US saw net negative migration in 2025, losing ~150,000 people, as in-migration fell to ~2.6-2.7M, down from nearly 6M in 2023, per the Brookings Institution. At least 180,000 Americans moved to 15 tracked countries last year alone, part of an estimated 4-9M-strong exodus abroad, according to a WSJ analysis. Portugal's US population has jumped 500% since Covid, Ireland welcomed 10,000 Americans in 2025 (double 2024), and US renunciation requests surged 48% in 2024. That figure is expected to be higher when the final numbers come in for 2025. Meanwhile, 40% of American women ages 15-44 say they'd permanently move overseas if they could, per a Gallup poll. And the UK is seeing receipts.

A record 8,790 Americans applied for British citizenship in 2025, up 42% YoY, with 2,490 applications in Q4 alone, per Home Office data.

Add in record Irish passport applications and a >20% jump in US academics seeking overseas jobs, and it's clear this isn't a digital nomad gap year.

Cheaper healthcare, safer schools, remote-work flexibility, and political fatigue are fueling the shift.

Europe gets dollar-earning talent while Americans get walkable cities and lower hospital bills.

Looks like Uncle Sam is watching a growing slice of his middle class trade backyard barbecues for balcony apertivos.

A record 8,790 Americans applied for British citizenship in 2025, up 42% YoY, with 2,490 applications in Q4 alone, per Home Office data. Add in record Irish passport applications and a >20% jump in US academics seeking overseas jobs, and it's clear this isn't a digital nomad gap year. Cheaper healthcare, safer schools, remote-work flexibility, and political fatigue are fueling the shift. Europe gets dollar-earning talent while Americans get walkable cities and lower hospital bills. Looks like Uncle Sam is watching a growing slice of his middle class trade backyard barbecues for balcony apertivos.

We are actively killing the American dream because this country has decided a path of scarcity with no new talent, and policy making via Truth Social posts is the way to go.

If we were 10-20 years younger, I think we'd be looking at doing this ourselves.

06.03.2026 20:44 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

It looks to me as though Trump is laying the groundwork for declaring victory and going home.

If he does that, he'll leave the situation in Iranβ€”actually, in the whole regionβ€”far more volatile, far worse, than it was just a few weeks ago.

06.03.2026 19:33 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Trump says US ground invasion of Iran would be β€˜waste of time,’ claims regime has β€˜lost everything they can lose’ President Trump said late Thursday that a US ground invasion of Iran would be a β€œwaste of time” because the Islamic Republic has already β€œlost everything.

If they're still in power, they haven't "lost everything they can lose." As a matter of fact they haven't lost anything that can't be replaced.

This is the problem with going to war without determining in advance what the end state you wish to achieve is and formulating a strategy to achieve it.

06.03.2026 19:28 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
Heather Long

@byHeatherLong

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Key takeaways from the dismal February jobs report:

1) US firms aren't hiring with all this uncertainty

2) The US has LOST jobs since May 2025.

3) We're back to 4.4% unemployment rate, one of the highest rates since 2021.

4) Healthcare had been the only bright spot, but even that was -28,000 in February (due to strikes)

5) Young workers and workers of color are struggling the most.

This chart illustrates that the U.S. economy lost 92,000 jobs in February.
The job market is struggling to recover, facing numerous economic headwinds.
Data indicates the economy added only 584,000 total jobs in 2025, which was the weakest year for hiring outside of a recession since 2003. 
While January 2026 saw a small surge in jobs, the market contracted over the final three months of 2025.

Heather Long @byHeatherLong Follow Key takeaways from the dismal February jobs report: 1) US firms aren't hiring with all this uncertainty 2) The US has LOST jobs since May 2025. 3) We're back to 4.4% unemployment rate, one of the highest rates since 2021. 4) Healthcare had been the only bright spot, but even that was -28,000 in February (due to strikes) 5) Young workers and workers of color are struggling the most. This chart illustrates that the U.S. economy lost 92,000 jobs in February. The job market is struggling to recover, facing numerous economic headwinds. Data indicates the economy added only 584,000 total jobs in 2025, which was the weakest year for hiring outside of a recession since 2003. While January 2026 saw a small surge in jobs, the market contracted over the final three months of 2025.

What one month giveth, the next month taketh away.

That's the way it's been since last May.

06.03.2026 19:05 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Man Fell in Love with Google Gemini and It Told Him to Stage a 'Mass Casualty Attack' Before He Took His Own Life: Lawsuit Joel Gavalas, the father of the late 36-year-old Jonathan Gavalas, is suing Google, alleging that his son killed himself following falling in love with an AI assistant.

AI is the future! πŸ€¦β€β™‚οΈ

06.03.2026 18:51 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Yeah, until January.

06.03.2026 18:09 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Trump committed to refilling the reserve at the beginning of his term. And yes, oil has been cheap (WTI has stayed around Β±$60/bbl) throughout his term until now.

06.03.2026 18:08 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Well.... Here's something useful.

06.03.2026 18:03 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Go to any medium to large sized city in Europe and you'll find homeless & very poor people. Unlike the US where they tend to congregate in the central part of the cities, you have to look on the periphery over thereβ€”to the banlieues outside of Paris or Marseilles, for instance.

06.03.2026 17:41 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

No, they're paying for those things with higher taxes. They're only "free" in the sense that you don't have to pay at the point of serviceβ€”at the doctor's office or the hospital, for example. Their way is more efficient, but try convincing aJoe Sixpack that he'd be better off paying more in taxes.

06.03.2026 17:31 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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GOP lawmakers push for charges against former White House aide for Jan. 6 testimony | CNN Politics Republicans on Capitol Hill are asking the Justice Department to consider bringing criminal charges against Cassidy Hutchinson, a former aide in President Donald Trump’s first administration who becam...

Barry Loudermilk and Jim Jordan. With Trump & Bondi in office, who knows? Maybe the DOJ will disgrace themselves again.

06.03.2026 15:50 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

I guess it depends on what your predisposition isβ€”in other words, you tend to see what you believe.

Another way to look at this is that instead of doing plug-in-grind-out coding day in and day out, software engineers' time can be solving the more subtle issues that AI can't (yet) handle.

06.03.2026 15:16 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Iran's Shaheds cost $20K to $40K each. Each interceptor we or the Gulf Arab states useβ€”THAADs, Patriot PAC 3, SM-3 or - 6β€” costs upwards of $1M each. You can't respond to a cheap problem with an expensive solution. Ukrainians have faced this issue for 4 years & have developed solutions.

06.03.2026 14:58 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

A better comparison would be based on *disposable* (after tax) income. The effective tax rate of the bottom 95% of US taxpayers is 27.5% versus 35%-55% in Western European countries.

06.03.2026 13:58 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Top Personal Income Tax Rates in Europe, 2026 Denmark (60.5 percent), France (55.4 percent), and Austria (55 percent) levy the highest top personal income tax rates in Europe.

And also have very high taxes to pay for all those benefits. There's no such thing as a free lunch.

The map shows top rates but the tax rates for the bottom 95% run between 35% and 55%.

www.google.com/search?q=eff...

06.03.2026 13:48 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

You can't fill up your gas tank with a short futures position.

05.03.2026 20:13 πŸ‘ 239 πŸ” 32 πŸ’¬ 7 πŸ“Œ 0
This graphic from the Financial Times details the history and current state of the United States Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). It highlights that the reserve is currently at one of its lowest levels in decades, potentially leaving the US vulnerable to oil price spikes caused by geopolitical conflicts. 
Lowest Levels: Current stock levels are significantly reduced compared to historical highs, with a major drawdown occurring in 2022 to counter rising prices following the Russia-Ukraine war. 
Key Actions: The chart marks significant events, including President Bush's pledge to fill the SPR after 9/11 and President Biden's authorization of a historic release in 2022. 
Capacity: The SPR has a total capacity of approximately 714 million barrels, located in salt caverns along the Gulf Coast.

This graphic from the Financial Times details the history and current state of the United States Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). It highlights that the reserve is currently at one of its lowest levels in decades, potentially leaving the US vulnerable to oil price spikes caused by geopolitical conflicts. Lowest Levels: Current stock levels are significantly reduced compared to historical highs, with a major drawdown occurring in 2022 to counter rising prices following the Russia-Ukraine war. Key Actions: The chart marks significant events, including President Bush's pledge to fill the SPR after 9/11 and President Biden's authorization of a historic release in 2022. Capacity: The SPR has a total capacity of approximately 714 million barrels, located in salt caverns along the Gulf Coast.

Probably because of this. It's going to take almost 10 years to bring the SPR back up to the level it was at in 2020. Releasing enough oil to bring down prices, as Biden did in 2022, would put the reserve at close to zero and take 20 years to refill.

06.03.2026 13:31 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0
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Anxiety grows among California Democrats as gubernatorial candidates rebuff calls to drop out Despite a warning from the state Democratic Party chair that a crowded field could hand the governorship to a Republican, eight of nine major Democratic candidates filed their paperwork to run, bettin...
06.03.2026 13:07 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0