But that doesn’t justify using unweighted responses!
These are the unweighted proportions for years to graduation from the FIRE dataset: would Kaufmann infer that the true proportion of college students who are about to graduate surged by 74% and then collapsed by 30% since 2020?
The jump in the weighted proportion between 2023 and 2024 could very easily be downstream of a change in the weighting protocol. I don’t know the details here but I do know that since 2020 a number of surveys moved from 2 to 3 potential responses for gender ID
In response to this follow up from Kaufmann, I updated my post today to clarify that I don’t think the weighted or unweighted estimates are a good answer to this question
hey thanks (1) for saying so, I appreciate it (2) in a roundabout way, for your help--I haven't used my personal site for much but I remember referencing at least one post of yours when I first put it up
16 million views and a bunch of media write-ups for a claim that falls apart if you actually use the survey weights like you are taught to do in undergrad. I would say the University of Buckingham is not sending their best but realistically they probably are
There are a number of issues with this analysis but I found one that I haven't seen anyone else mention: Kaufmann estimates gender ID from the FIRE data without using the survey weights
When the weights are used as designed, the evidence for his core claim disappears
One on hand I agree with this and on the other I’ve been conditioned to feel like these accounts are an important part of the short form text post platform ecosystem
There are tons of these. Letterboxd, Craigslist, Goodreads
The world is much more complex than we can individually comprehend. If systems don't have ways of simplifying that ("attenuating variety" per Stafford Beer) then the variety will still be attenuated, just in a completely arbitrary way that leads to us prioritising completely the wrong information.
developing a sort of descriptive thesis that there is a growing anti-civilization movement coalescing around destroying the pillars of modernity: pharmaceuticals, efficient agriculture, and education and their assumptions are widely culturally accepted
In a scenario where FDIC-backed assets are compromised I’m not sure how useful your cash is going to be
Not. Permitted. Under the Law.
Pentametron was one of the great web art projects, retweeting couplets of accidentally iambic tweets. Thanks to Bluesky's open feed, I have resurrected the concept..
Behold @iambic.bot!
Any way we could get the same range on the choropleth shades as the other one?
Also, this is just a weak form of the general observation that a billion is a surprisingly big number. You lose a lot of the unintuitiveness when you start counting at 200m. Two hundred million is a big number too!
I get irrationally annoyed by posts that begin like the quoted one. Don’t tell me what I can’t fathom, I’m good at fathoming
You can’t fathom the difference between 0.002 and 1. This chart is to scale.
👁️
Manifesting works
tsdf?
a guy like that doesn’t worship god, he worships power
The current water level is 4189.5 ft above mean sea level
which compared with
1 year ago today is 0.91 ft higher ⬆️
2 years ago today is 0.38 ft lower ⬇️
10 years ago today is 4.51 ft lower ⬇️
as of Wednesday, October 25, 2023 at 06:15:00 PM MT
Do you do your own scans? For large format that actually doesn’t sound bad
It’s so dark to see people grind all of this into content of the same flavor as everything else. “Laughing til my head comes off, who’s in a bunker,” etc
The current water level is 4189.1 ft above mean sea level
which compared with
1 year ago today is 0.31 ft higher ⬆️
2 years ago today is 1.03 ft lower ⬇️
10 years ago today is 5.02 ft lower ⬇️
as of Monday, October 09, 2023 at 06:15:00 PM MT
tired of seeing videos of people dying on twitter, dragging my feet back over here
instead of a "severe thunderstorm warning," why not try a "gentle thunderstorm reminder"
