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Tim Riffe

@timriffe1

danger, demography, and data

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27.09.2023
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Latest posts by Tim Riffe @timriffe1

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Weaponizing Kinship: Four out of ten Colombians have lost a family member in the conflict πŸ‡¨πŸ‡΄
Enrique Acosta, Diego Alburez, Maria Gargiulo, & Catalina Torres quantified how many Colombians have ever lost at least a family member to conflict-related violence.
www.demogr.mpg.de/go/weaponkinship


05.03.2026 12:01 πŸ‘ 13 πŸ” 6 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 1
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<em>Population and Development Review</em> | Population Council Journal | Wiley Online Library The ongoing Colombian armed conflict has produced widespread homicides and enforced disappearances, as armed actors used violence to terrorize communities and consolidate power. Family bereavementβ€”on...

Paper by E Acosta, @demography.bsky.social, @thegargiulian.bsky.social & C Torres first from PDR special issue I guest edited w/ L Andriano & M Ebbinghaus, Social and Demographic Consequences of Political Conflict and Violence, to be available on early view onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

05.03.2026 22:16 πŸ‘ 9 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 1
Demographic Research - The groupwise decomposition: Estimating group-specific contributions to differences between demographic measures (Volume 54 - Article 14 | Pages 441–470) Volume 54 - Article 14 | Pages 441–470

🚨New paper out in Demographic Research🚨 and my first foray into demographic methods. It develops a new method to quantify how specific subpopulations drive demographic gaps. www.demographic-research.org/articles/vol...
@demresjournal.bsky.social @pophel.bsky.social #demography #methods

06.03.2026 12:19 πŸ‘ 18 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 0

An excellent resource!

06.03.2026 12:18 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Data Visualization A Practical Introduction

Here’s a full draft of the upcoming second edition of my β€œData Visualization: A Practical Introduction”: socviz.co

05.03.2026 22:54 πŸ‘ 539 πŸ” 172 πŸ’¬ 12 πŸ“Œ 15
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Clinical trial reforms that once seemed radical How randomized controlled trials, preregistration, and results reporting became standard practice.

New post!

It may seem ambitious to ask for individual patient data from clinical trials to be shared, anonymized, for use by other researchers.

But the history of medicine shows us that clinical trials have already undergone a series of transformations that once seemed equally bold:

04.03.2026 16:57 πŸ‘ 75 πŸ” 23 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 3
The political effects of X's feed algorithm
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10098-2
Received: 16 December 2024
Accepted: 4 January 2026
Published online: 18 February 2026
Open access
β€’ Check for updates
Germain Gauthier,5, Roland Hodler?5, Philine Widmer35 & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya3,4,5 m
Feed algorithms are widely suspected to influence political attitudes. However, previous evidence from switching off the algorithm on Meta platforms found no political effects'. Here we present results from a 2023 field experiment on Elon Musk's platform X shedding light on this puzzle. We assigned active US-based users randomly to either an algorithmic or a chronological feed for 7 weeks, measuring political attitudes and online behaviour. Switching from a chronological to an algorithmic feed increased engagement and shifted political opinion towards more conservative positions, particularly regarding policy priorities, perceptions of criminal investigations into Donald Trump and views on the war in Ukraine. In contrast, switching from the algorithmic to the chronological feed had no comparable effects.
Neither switching the algorithm on nor switching it off significantly affected affective polarization or self-reported partisanship. To investigate the mechanism, we analysed users' feed content and behaviour. We found that the algorithm promotes conservative content and demotes posts by traditional media. Exposure to algorithmic content leads users to follow conservative political activist accounts, which they continue to follow even after switching off the algorithm, helping explain the asymmetry in effects. These results suggest that initial exposure to X's algorithm has persistent effects on users' current political attitudes and account-following behaviour, even in the absence of a detectable effect on partisanship.

The political effects of X's feed algorithm https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10098-2 Received: 16 December 2024 Accepted: 4 January 2026 Published online: 18 February 2026 Open access β€’ Check for updates Germain Gauthier,5, Roland Hodler?5, Philine Widmer35 & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya3,4,5 m Feed algorithms are widely suspected to influence political attitudes. However, previous evidence from switching off the algorithm on Meta platforms found no political effects'. Here we present results from a 2023 field experiment on Elon Musk's platform X shedding light on this puzzle. We assigned active US-based users randomly to either an algorithmic or a chronological feed for 7 weeks, measuring political attitudes and online behaviour. Switching from a chronological to an algorithmic feed increased engagement and shifted political opinion towards more conservative positions, particularly regarding policy priorities, perceptions of criminal investigations into Donald Trump and views on the war in Ukraine. In contrast, switching from the algorithmic to the chronological feed had no comparable effects. Neither switching the algorithm on nor switching it off significantly affected affective polarization or self-reported partisanship. To investigate the mechanism, we analysed users' feed content and behaviour. We found that the algorithm promotes conservative content and demotes posts by traditional media. Exposure to algorithmic content leads users to follow conservative political activist accounts, which they continue to follow even after switching off the algorithm, helping explain the asymmetry in effects. These results suggest that initial exposure to X's algorithm has persistent effects on users' current political attitudes and account-following behaviour, even in the absence of a detectable effect on partisanship.

A new paper shows that less than 2 months of exposure to Twitter’s algorithmic feed significantly shifts people’s political views to the right.

Moving from chronological feed to the algorithmic feed also increases engagement.

This is one of the most concerning papers I’ve read in awhile.

19.02.2026 18:57 πŸ‘ 6412 πŸ” 3197 πŸ’¬ 159 πŸ“Œ 401

πŸ“ˆ New preprint on life expectancy trajectories in high-income countries since 2020. πŸ“‰

Joint work with a great team from
@mpidr.bsky.social @oxforddemsci.bsky.social @psglshtm.bsky.social @camunicampop.bsky.social

Link below. πŸ‘‡

03.03.2026 10:54 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Useful aside: you can find the contribution of differences in initial conditions in indices from multistate with this same Kitagawa step

25.02.2026 12:13 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Arriaga Meets Kitagawa. Life Expectancy Decomposition With Population Subgroups An Arriaga decomposition partitions differences in life expectancy into contributions from mortality rate differences in each age. A Kitagawa decomposition partitions a difference between two weighte...

Another way to use Kitagawa decomposition in demography:-) onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

25.02.2026 12:11 πŸ‘ 10 πŸ” 5 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

πŸ€—send a student or two!

25.02.2026 10:54 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Center for Demographic Studies The Demographic Studies Center (Barcelona) was created in 1984 with three main aims: promote scientific research, training and dissemination of knowledge on population dynamics.

I'll be teaching again for Barcelona Summer School of Demography, "Demography with R" 6-10 July: ced.cat/en/bcn4seaso... You can do this program in person or online. Sign up, it's fun to do demography! @cedemografia.bsky.social

25.02.2026 09:33 πŸ‘ 20 πŸ” 15 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1

Join us in Bologna for the 1st meeting of the EAPS WG Open Science in Demography. Program: group intro + 2h workshop led by @jschoeley.com & @akbaritabar.bsky.social. Free & open to all. Register: eaps.opensci@gmail.com
#EPC2026 #OpenScience #Demography @eaps.bsky.social @populationeu.bsky.social

24.02.2026 14:50 πŸ‘ 12 πŸ” 7 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

The last part abt how measles disrupts immunity vs other infections is, imo, underappreciated (& mechanism was recently clarified). It's part of why measles vaccination was seen to help beyond just reducing measles complications - not getting measles reduces severity of subsequent infections too.

22.02.2026 18:21 πŸ‘ 137 πŸ” 87 πŸ’¬ 5 πŸ“Œ 6
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Have you ever considered studying demography – also alongside your work?

Charles University in Prague is offering a part-time distance-learning programme leading to a Master's degree in Demography.

πŸ”œ Application deadline: 28 February 2026

Read more here: lnkd.in/dHVw-3gR

Photo: Petr Jan Juračka

09.02.2026 12:27 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1
Job opening for postdoctoral researchers at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic-Epidemiology.

Job opening for postdoctoral researchers at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic-Epidemiology.

The Medical Demography research group explains its goals for studying disease progression and its effects on health and the population.

The Medical Demography research group explains its goals for studying disease progression and its effects on health and the population.

We are looking for a PhD in demography, sociology, epidemiology, or related fields with experience in quantitative health data analysis.

We are looking for a PhD in demography, sociology, epidemiology, or related fields with experience in quantitative health data analysis.

Apply now: The application deadline is March 22, 2026. For more information, visit www.demogr.mpg.de/go/jobs.

Apply now: The application deadline is March 22, 2026. For more information, visit www.demogr.mpg.de/go/jobs.

πŸ“’Job Offer‼️New Max Planck Research Group on Medical Demography
Marcus Ebeling will lead the team starting on 1 July 2026. The research group will be based at the MPIDR in Rostock. Read an interview with Marcus on his future research here: www.demogr.mpg.de/go/rgmd (including link to job) #postdoc


09.02.2026 08:30 πŸ‘ 19 πŸ” 20 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Big congratulations to Rohan Alexander & Tim Hatton for their article β€˜The making of a nation: Who voted for Australian federation?' which has won the 2025 Sir Timothy Coghlan award for best paper in the Asia-Pacific Economic History Review!

06.02.2026 11:21 πŸ‘ 12 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

β€˜One officer told me that I "had no chance of returning to Minnesota" and that "the best thing for (me] is self-deportation." …
She offered me $2600 to self-deport.
I refused.
I wanted to talk to my attorney.
They didn't tell me the judge had already ordered my release and return to Minnesota.’

05.02.2026 06:04 πŸ‘ 6859 πŸ” 3676 πŸ’¬ 69 πŸ“Œ 176
Giacomo, NicolΓ², Agostino and Francesca celebrating their PhD defense!

Giacomo, NicolΓ², Agostino and Francesca celebrating their PhD defense!

πŸŽ“πŸŽ© Congratulations to NicolΓ², Francesca, Giacomo, and Agostino on earning their PhDs!

It was a wonderful day filled with inspiring talks on fertility, migration, mortality, and health β€” everything that demography is about.

We are truly proud of your paths, well done to all four of you! πŸŒŸπŸ“Š

02.02.2026 16:50 πŸ‘ 20 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1
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NextGenPop Next Generation of Scholars in Population Research

Call for Applications! NextGenPop is an undergraduate program in population research, 2-week on-campus summer experience and virtual components hosted by the University of Minnesota, June 7 – 19, 2026. Deadline Feb. 5

02.02.2026 16:31 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Comparative Population Studies too!

31.01.2026 12:16 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

A ready list I’m not sure, but i know Demographic Research, Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, and Population are all free for authors and readers alike.

30.01.2026 18:28 πŸ‘ 6 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0
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a cartoon character with a sign that says south park behind him ALT: a cartoon character with a sign that says south park behind him

Population science/demography folks: Looking for a list of journals that either a) don't have OA fees, b) have reasonable OA fees (a few hundred), or c) allow authors to deposit the author's accepted manuscript in PubMed.

Does this exist somewhere? Do we need to start such a list?

30.01.2026 18:13 πŸ‘ 11 πŸ” 6 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

This is terrible. It is also an opportunity for certain journalists to finally speak up with a *fraction* of the courage the people of Minneapolis have shown. It is also instructive that Lemon is Black. Woe/pox etc upon white journalists who don’t freak out about this.

30.01.2026 13:53 πŸ‘ 3398 πŸ” 790 πŸ’¬ 39 πŸ“Œ 15
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PhD scholarship for research project on lifespan inequalities across social determinants of health The Interdisciplinary Centre on population Dynamics (CPop) at the University of Southern Denmark (SDU) invites applications for a fully funded three year PhD position within a Danish Research Council ...

PhD opportunity!
CPop is opening a fully funded three year PhD position on lifespan inequalities.
Apply here πŸ‘‡
fa-eosd-saasfaprod1.fa.ocs.oraclecloud.com/hcmUI/Candid...

26.01.2026 13:02 πŸ‘ 11 πŸ” 12 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 1
Screenshot of an X.com post by Senator Chris Van Hollen (@ChrisVanHollen) marking β€œ16 years ago today” that SCOTUS decided Citizens United, saying it enabled unchecked secret money in politics and urging reversal, with a photo of Van Hollen speaking in an office with a Maryland flag behind him.

Screenshot of an X.com post by Senator Chris Van Hollen (@ChrisVanHollen) marking β€œ16 years ago today” that SCOTUS decided Citizens United, saying it enabled unchecked secret money in politics and urging reversal, with a photo of Van Hollen speaking in an office with a Maryland flag behind him.

It all comes back to the corrupting influence of money in politics. Get it out!

22.01.2026 19:30 πŸ‘ 1455 πŸ” 283 πŸ’¬ 42 πŸ“Œ 7
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Vignette: solving facility location problems with realistic travel-times.

Use the r5 routing engine to generate a travel-time cost matrix from OSM data, then optimize facility locations with a lightning-fast Rust backend in spopt-r.

Learn how: walker-data.com/spop...

21.01.2026 13:18 πŸ‘ 22 πŸ” 6 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 0
Poster showing speakers for the TPN seminar series

Poster showing speakers for the TPN seminar series

The Toronto Population Network @tpn-uoft.bsky.social Seminar Series is happening this semester, with a great line-up, including @lucampesando.bsky.social, Orsola Torrisi, @mdhayward.bsky.social, and @jnobles.bsky.social! Starts next Tuesday. If you're in Toronto please come along!

21.01.2026 14:43 πŸ‘ 19 πŸ” 11 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 2
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Programs - Michigan Center on the Demography of Aging MiCDA spurs new research on the demography of aging through pilot project and early career development opportunities.

MiCDA is excited to announce that our call for Research Fellow proposals is now open! Early career faculty are invited to submit proposals for pilot research related to the demography of aging. Visit myumi.ch/P34p4 for details. We look forward to your submissions by March 2.

19.01.2026 19:11 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 2
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πŸ“’ #episky #mortality
New year, new #STMF data πŸŽ†

Revised and updated data available πŸ“ˆ
➑️ mortality.org/Data/STMF

πŸ”’ STMF data access is now limited to registered #HMD users to protect sensitive data. Log in with your existing HMD credentials to download the data series.

19.01.2026 12:26 πŸ‘ 11 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0