Jarrod Hayes

Time series plot depicting predicted Nino 3.4 region ocean temperature anomalies from the latest (Mar 2026) ECMWF ensemble. It depicts an extremely rapid rise in such temperatures, from modest negative anomalies to strong positive anomalies, by mid-summer 2026--indicative of a transition from weak-moderate La Nina conditions to moderate-strong El Nino conditions over just a few months.

Whew.

All signs are increasingly pointing to a significant, if not strong to very strong, El Niño event. I'll have more to say in coming weeks & months, but for now I'll just say that this is increasingly likely to become a major regional-to-global climate driver in 2026-2027.

E&E News: Virginia lawmakers vote to return state to RGGI Democratic Gov. Abigail Spanberger is expected to sign the measure. Her Republican predecessor had stopped the state's participation in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative.

Welcome back, Virginia, to RGGI, the successful northeast/mid-Atlantic system to curb power plant carbon pollution and fund clean energy! midhttps://subscriber.politicopro.com/article/eenews/2026/03/02/democrats-pass-bill-to-return-virginia-to-rggi-00807017

Anyone Else Have Those Weird Dreams Where Sobbing Future Generations Beg You To Change Course? The human subconscious is such an interesting thing. No matter how much you think you’ve got it figured out, it’ll always spit out the most random stuff. Take me, for example. After coming home from a...

Commentary: Anyone Else Have Those Weird Dreams Where Sobbing Future Generations Beg You To Change Course?

Looking at the record of military interventions since 9/11, the Western ability to determine political outcomes on the ground in the Middle East via the use of force seems limited, to put it mildly.

Old enough to know that all wars start with wildly fanciful claims of quick success. Including the US civil war (I’m not *that* old but I do read history)

WOW. 19 people, all who were imprisoned and mistreated in a foreign prison at the direct command of the United States, are brave enough to say “We are innocent, and we will endure more time imprisoned to prove that.”

I can only admire the enormous courage such a move takes.

Strangling US science, visual turn

A line graph showing NSF grant awards made through 2/27/26 for fiscal year 2026 compared with grant awards for fiscal years 2021-2025.

NSF Update (Awards through 2/27/26)

Directorates to follow

1/10

What is that value-add of generative AI in this context?

Nuclear deterrence is dying. And hardly anyone notices Nuclear weapons are not going to suddenly disappear. But they might create a more dangerous world in which countries are neither safely deterred nor meaningfully disarmed.

🚨 JUST IN: Nuclear weapons are not going to suddenly disappear. But they might create a more dangerous world in which countries are neither safely deterred nor meaningfully disarmed, Alex Kolbin writes.

#nuclearweapons #NewSTART #Trump #Putin #nukesky

Everything Trump says here is verifiably untrue. During this period of time the number of US installations on Greenland went from 17 to 1 as a result of US determinations that they were not needed.

1916 deed showing the US acquired the Dutch West Indies (later known as The US Virgin Islands) for $25M in exchange for granting the sovereignty of Greenland to Denmark.

In 1916, Denmark sold the Danish West Indies to the USA for $25M, with the colony becoming the US Virgin Islands. The USA was worried Germany could take control of the islands, though they had no plans to do so.

In exchange, the USA acknowledged Denmark's complete sovereignty over #Greenland

Google Guys Say Bye to California

In the 1930s, German and Italian scientists of principle fled to the US and became the backbone of our scientific and technical advantage, creating massive US wealth. Those who benefited most from their work are now… fleeing to chase lower tax rates. www.nytimes.com/2026/01/09/t...

In 2026 I want all of the decent people to remember one thing.

You aren’t meant to be this disciplined, this self-sacrificing to survive. The environment is supposed to support good living. We can have that. You are not a failure. That is politics.

That is all.

tmprs.jpg

🤖 image processing for #JWST 🔭 data (MACSJ0553-3342). RGB Filters: 444, 356, 277
PI: Fujimoto, Seiji, program 06882. CRVAL: 88.324482, -33.704229
Credits: NASA, ESA, CSA, STScI.

“Democracy Dies in Equivocating Headlines”

Context Widows or, of GPUs, LPUs, and Goal Displacement

Thus is excellent on the core dysfunction of academia and how LLM accelerate those problem artificialbureaucracy.substack.com/p/context-wi...

Just 0.001% hold three times the wealth of poorest half of humanity, report finds Data from World Inequality Report also showed top 10% of income-earners earn more than the other 90%

The world's richest 0.001% now control 3x as much wealth as the entire bottom half of humanity combined.

56,000 wealthy individuals have more than roughly 4 billion people.

Read that back.

GLASHEEN: Antifa is our primary concern right now. That's the most immediate violent threat we're facing

BENNIE THOMPSON: Where is antifa headquartered?

GLASHEEN: ... ... ... we are building out the infrastructure right now

THOMPSON: What does that mean?

MAGAZINER: How many veterans have you deported?

NOEM: We haven't deported veterans

MAGAZINER: We are now joined on Zoom by a combat veteran you deported to Korea

Present company excepted, this issue is full of rockstars

In cellophane, a new issue arrives, a special issue Narrating War edited by @adamblerner.bsky.social @profmiskimmon.bsky.social & I, with great authors, available here: journals.sagepub.com/toc/mwc// cc @alexhlar.bsky.social @paulinesophieh.bsky.social @minseonku.bsky.social @jarrodhayes.bsky.social

Becoming a U.S. citizen takes years and involves immigrants acquiring a green card, extensive interviews, background checks, classes and a citizenship test. The naturalization ceremony is the final step to the process, where the oath of allegiance and a citizenship certificate are granted. Immigrants approved to be naturalized went to Faneuil Hall Thursday - known as the country's cradle of liberty - for that long-awaited moment to pledge allegiance to the United States. But instead, as they lined up, some were told by U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services officials that they couldn't proceed due to their countries of origin.

Read this: www.wgbh.org/news/local/2...

NEW: www.theatlantic.com/national-sec...

The Nobel Prize committee should announce the World Cup winner tomorrow

Unpacking a Trump Twist of the National Security Strategy The Trump administration released its much-anticipated National Security Strategy this week. CFR convened six of its experts to discuss the implications of a document that could reorient the United S…

Let’s call this what it is: hegemonic suicide

www.cfr.org/expert-brief...