@mijrahman
Managing Director, Europe and co-head of London office, Eurasia Group. Formerly HM Treasury and European Commission. Senior Research Fellow, LSE European Institute. ECFR Council Member. My views. Seeking analytical truth https://www.eurasiagroup.net
You couldn't make this up
Putin is supporting Iran with intelligence in the war
Yet Trump is considering unsanctioning more Russian oil according to Bessent
A clueless US Administration, in way over its head
This allows the EU to be non-aligned with the US but anti the Iranian regime. Spain has obviously carved out a stronger position. But Madrid has a) no formal allies in the Gulf and b) cares little about Ukraine, so can risk angering Trump
2/2
People keep asking me whether the EU is warming to the US and Israel's war on Iran.
The answer is no
The EU pattern has been exactly the same as the UK's: Against the original US and Israel attacks (seen as illegal). But ready to defend allies in the Gulf when attacked by Iran
Vv interesting development
Ukraine not only important for European security. But US security too
www.ft.com/content/d077...
Macron said the French military build-up was defensive and intended to help protect French citizens, troops and allies in the region from Iranian attack. He said the first French frigate, the “Languedoc”, would arrive off the Cypriot coast tonight.
ENDS
In a TV address - his first public comments on the war in the middle east - Macron said the Iranian regime bore prime responsibility for the conflict but criticised the US and Israel for resorting to military action “outside international law -something we can’t accept.” 2/
🇫🇷‼️ France has sent a frigate to protect Cyprus, an EU ally, from Iranian missiles or drones, Macron announced tonight. He also said he had ordered the giant aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle and its frigate escorts to cut short a Baltic visit and sail to the eastern Med. 1/
Macron surprised his audience yesterday by adding Belgium, DK, Greece and Sweden and “possibly others”to this list and suggesting that some or all might be involved in conventional exercises related to the French deterrent by the end of this year. ENDS
It was known that Germany, Sweden and Poland were interested in talking to France about the French deterrent – as a second insurance policy rather than a replacement (at this stage) for the US nuclear guarantee. 9/
Despite his remarks on French “final control” of the deterrent & despite assertions of a “European dimension” in Fr nuclear doctrine going back to the 1970s, the PR speech will be controversial. He has already been accused by the Far Right of “giving away the deterrent to Bxl” 8/
The speech had been much flagged in advance and is regarded in the Elysée Palace as one of Macron’s final big contributions to European and world politics before he leaves office in 14 months’ time. 7/
This would involve, he said. participation by allies in the conventional “support infrastructure” for the French deterrent. It might also mean basing nuclear-capable Fr aircraft in other Eur countries to “complicate the calculations for our enemies”. 6/
Macron made it clear that there was no question of “sharing” France’s deterrent with other European countries. Decisions on the use of nukes would remain purely French. But he said it was time to clarify Fr’s long-standing French assertion its “Force de frappe” had a “European dimension”. 5/
President Macron, standing in front of the “Temeraire”, a French nuclear attack sub about to go out on extended patrol, also announced that Britain and the UK were studying possible joint development of long-range ballistic missiles. 4/
In a much flagged speech at France’s nuclear submarine base at Ile Longue near Brest, Macron also announced that France intended to increase its stock of nuclear warheads, now just under 300. He refused to give a figure for the increase. 3/
He said at least 8 European countries are considering exercises with FR on nuclear “support infrastructure” in the near future. He listed six of them: German, Poland, Belgium, Greece, Sweden and Denmark. The French and British are already engaged in similar cooperation. 2/
🇫🇷🇫🇷🇫🇷 A bombshell? Not quite but President Macron went further than expected this afternoon in announcing progress towards a strengthened “European dimension” for France’s nuclear deterrent. 1/
🇫🇷 expected to move two warships to the Gulf, joining one already there, in the next couple of days. This follows the joint Fr, UK & German statement last night warning of "defensive action" to protect European bases and allies from Iranian retaliation
www.lefigaro.fr/internationa...
From the US Mission to NATO
Irony is dead
This is an excellent analysis by Sophie of a great European conundrum. French leaders, from De Gaulle, through Chirac to Macron, have been prescient about the need for greater European independence from the US. They are getting grudging, belated credit from other Europeans. BUT…1/
Macron has been proved right on European autonomy. Unfortunately, his failure to resolve France’s domestic problems has weakened his credibility, both in Europe and at home
ENDS
France faces the prospect of Germany becoming by far the biggest military power in democratic Europe while Paris pushes, unsuccessfully, for the EU to take on massive debt to fund a common defence. 9/
Hence, as Sophie points out, France faces a slow humiliation, just as Macron’s calls for European strategic autonomy are being vindicated. France is building up its defence spending but not at the rate Donald Trump has demanded and Nato has agreed to. 8/
9y ago Macron promised a peaceful revolution which would make the French state more efficient and the economy more competitive. He has made some progress on the economy but little on the state. The deficit (to be reduced to 5% of GDP this year) will be one of the highest in EU 7/
It is NOT certain that the Far Right will win next year but there is no sign yet of any powerful candidate emerging among the pro-EU parties of moderate Left, Centre and Centre-right. 6/
All the same, just when his prescient, pro-European ideas are being grudgingly recognised in Europe, Macron has failed to create a solid base for them in France. 5/
Like most people, the French vote on domestic rather than foreign or European issues. They have a habit of detesting all their leaders. Macron’s unpopularity is partly deserved and partly wilful and exaggerated. 4/
Even worse, the polls give the Far Right Rassemblement Nationalism an 18 or 19 point lead before the presidential election next April-May – whether or not Marine Le Pen runs for a fourth time. If the anti-EU RN wins, Macron’s hopes of a more powerful Europe will be dead. 3/
I would also ask another question. Why is Macron given so little credit for his prescience in France? This might be the moment when his persistent calls for “European strategic autonomy” since 2017 boosted his popularity at home. His approval rating is stuck in the low 20’s. 2/
