Ryan J. McComb

sickkkkkkk!!!

thanks man!!! hope you enjoy, its a pretty lean machine!

ETHS student aims to forecast 9th District Congressional race using betting market data - Evanston RoundTable As the Democratic primary to succeed retiring U.S. Rep. Jan Schakowsky ramps up in its final weeks, an Evanston Township High School student is developing

Hey, is that me? :)

evanstonroundtable.com/2026/02/10/e...

IL9.org MODEL!! yay!

After overwriting tons of data multiple times in Stata, we have the first model, tons of tedious work but check it out 👇

Model: il9.org/odds

Yes, this trend I saw was based off of her surprising support with "very liberals" who we thought as higher propensity in the model.

why? I’m interested.

25,000 simulations in, this is what the model is saying. Due to Kat's apparent fervent support among people who identify as "very liberal," (MDW crosstabs) she receives a better vote share when fewer people show up and the highest propensity liberals. For context 75,000 showed up in 2024.

Official #IL09 Forecasting thread!

Let's keep it here 👇

I wish there was data as granular, but no dice finding anything so far.

transit use may be the #1 predictor of high-propensity dem primary voters??

Hmmmmmm.....

**BTW, I don’t have an active ACCT (as it is illegal). This was someone’s account that I used to take a screenshot while out at dinner.**

We also increased the weight given to the midpoint and Order-Book weighted aspects, resulting in a significantly more accurate overall perspective on the race. This is IL9.org at its best!!!

A whale (or a sharp for all we know) bought a ton of YES contracts on Kat today. Immediately, the market makers came back to a bid-ask of 19 at 30 (now much tighter with 20 at 25). However, Kalshi still showed 37% odds, IL9.org immediately recognized this and throttled the Kalshi last-price weight.

this has like become the unofficial thread of IL-09 forecasting and data, I love it :)

Currently a 31% chance of a Biss-1st/ Fine-2nd finish!

Check out more advanced Heatmap data and more 👇
IL9.org

Sick stuff, if you wouldn’t mind, could you share the methodology you used? I would love to be so enlightened :)

Evanston Township High School student Ryan McComb built a really cool real-time aggregator site that collects data points on prediction markets, fundraising data and a bunch of other stuff for #IL09

👇🏼 Super cool stuff
il9.org

Yes, when I was originally trying to build a model I was gonna use data from the 2022 IL-1 race which was a quite similar

This district’s primaries have had maybe two competitive races since my grandparents were born… and none in my lifetime, or almost two of my lifetimes, for that matter.

Two people — Yates and Schakowsky, have represented this seat for 97.5% of the time since 1949.
(there was a small break in 63’)

This district’s primaries have had maybe two competitive races since my grandparents were born… and none in my lifetime, or almost two of my lifetimes, for that matter.

Two people — Yates and Schakowsky, have represented this seat for 97.5% of the time since 1949.
(there was a small break in 63’)

Thanks!! No offense taken :)

I genuinely hope we get more, but I am doubtful of more than one more high-quality poll. Also, no one has any clue what this district will look like (from a turnout by precinct perspective) bc it’s been so horribly boring and uncompetitive.

I understand. #NJ11 markets were criminally overpriced, even on election night. However, the polling for this race has been Sh** other than the DFP poll that had crosstabs, but that was so long ago it’s not useful anymore.

Manifold Manifold is a social prediction game. Bet on news, politics, tech, & AI with play money. Or create your own prediction market.

manifold.markets?r=SmVyb21lSF... here's a link if you want, or I could make the market. Tbh, it’s a very niche thing, so open interest might be low if you or I make one.

IL-07 Democratic Primary Winner Predictions & Odds | Polymarket View real-time odds on "IL-07 Democratic Primary Winner" as of February 7, 2026, and trade on The World's Largest Prediction Market™

polymarket.com/event/il-07-... low volume and Bid-a-Spread is hugeeeee but not a bad option

i was thinking of trying this for raja and stratton

Yeah, I mean this model could be applied to basically every house and Senate race or primary. I looked around and IL7 lacks PMs in general (eg. the quick search I made though a few sites didn’t yield any results:)

I could make a market on Manifold or suggest one on Kalshi too, wouldn’t be too hard.

I was working on a model, but I have subsequently put it on the back burner. As was seen in #NJ11, don't always trust the PMs; however, I would rather not scrounge for data from semi-similar sources to bootstrap a model with IL-1 (2022) Jackson race data as a benchmark, but I digress.

A graphic shows the Republican delegate count entering Super Tuesday. Donald Trump has 273 and Nikki Haley has 43. To win the nomination, 1,215 delegates are needed. There is a map that shows how many delegates are at stake in each of the 15 states that are holding primaries or caucuses on Tuesday, including Virginia, Vermont, Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas and Utah.

On Super Tuesday, voters in 15 states will determine how 854 ⎯ more than a third of the total available ⎯ delegates will be distributed between the two remaining Republican candidates, Donald Trump and Nikki Haley. Follow live results here. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...