Justin Bronk

There’s progress in various countries, like major orders for AGM-88G, AIM-120C8/D3s, Meteor which is encouraging. But it’s slow delivery timeframes still in many cases, and far too patchy. Many nations, including UK and France are still well behind on responding to the threat at any suitable scale

The Evolution of Russian and Chinese Air Power Threats Russian and, particularly, Chinese capabilities now pose greater threats to Western air power than in 2020.

Russian forces pose a greater, albeit better understood threat to Western air capabilities than pre-2022, and Chinese counter-air capabilities are on another level entirely. Long read by me on the key changes to track since 2020: www.rusi.org/explore-our-...

Thanks very much good sir! Happy 2026!

Thanks Ulrike!

And I absolutely agree with you that larger ‘drones’ will play a significant role in any war in the Indo-Pacific; both for ISR and likely in the coming years as UCAVs and CCAs.

But most of these - like China’s CH-7 or GJ-11 will cost millions, and are thus not expendable en masse

Such an important piece.
And having looked only at the drones bit (while Justin is able to take a much broader airpower view) I agree that the small drones won’t be decisive. I keep thinking, however, that there will be a role for larger, more capable drone systems, especially for surveillance.

Thank you good sir - much appreciated on both counts!

America’s Drone Delusion Why the lessons of Ukraine don’t apply to a conflict with China.

I enjoyed writing this for Foreign Affairs on why the US Military’s most serious Chinese capability problems in the Indo-Pacific cannot be solved with “cheap massed drones”:
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

Thanks Frans. Will repost - not my morning today.

D’oh! In my defence I’ve just come off a 13 hour(!!) delayed transatlantic flight 😔

America’s Drone Delusion Why the lessons of Ukraine don’t apply to a conflict with China.

Bronk: "Despite having the largest and most advanced drone industry in the world, China has actually been prioritizing crewed military hardware...If the US focuses too heavily on drone development and acquisition, it risks losing its slim remaining edge" www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

This new RUSI report also includes an important chapter on the effectiveness of Russian air defenses, which is a lot higher than the popular online discourse can lead one to believe.

www.rusi.org/explore-our-...

U.S. Navy Awards BAE Systems APKWS Contract Worth Up To $1.7 Billion BAE Systems has received an initial order for 11,000 laser-guidance kits worth $322 million, with a maximum contract value of $1.7 billion, to equip the

U.S. Navy Awards BAE Systems APKWS Contract Worth Up To $1.7 Billion

BAE Systems has received an initial order for 11,000 laser-guidance kits worth $322 million, with a maximum contract value of $1.7 billion, to equip the U.S. military and partners.

Story: theaviationist.com/2025/12/11/u...

The nEUROn-derived UCAV + Rafale F5 standard is a sensible way for the Armee de l’Air to go in the mid-2030s from its current position. But the threat will continue to move too - that combination will have to face Russian IADS of the 2035 timeframe, not today’s sensors and weapon combinations… 🤷‍♂️

Well, Rafale is better optimised for carrying heavy mixed air to air, external fuel and air to surface loads over distance than Gripen. But downsides are twin engines, complex + more costly to maintain. And against Russian GBAD + fighters neither is really credible in a penetrating offensive role…

They’ll be purchased from the US. Although APKWS II itself is a BAE Systems product - I believe it’s made in the US.

Great to finally see APKWS II and Sniper pods on Ukrainian F-16s!

Offers a huge improvement in cost-per-engagement against Geran-2/3 and cruise missiles, greater ammunition availability and higher multiple engagement potential per sortie compared to AMRAAM and AIM-9 Sidewinder.

“Students are afraid to fail, and AI presents itself as a saviour. But what we learn from history is that progress requires failure. It requires reflection. Students are not just undermining their ability to learn, but to someday lead.” 🌻👇

I don’t agree on that… kamikazes were literally piloted missiles!

Remotely piloted, sure 🤷‍♂️

There is a big difference between heroic self-sacrifice by individual solders in the thick of combat to save comrades; and pre-planned suicide operations by barely trained pilots as an operational tactic.

Even the Nazis ultimately rejected the latter in the guise of the Fi 103R.

That would heavily depend on context - for example, whether the young man in question had be been heavily conditioned and pressured into seeing it as his sole duty, and refusal as a great strain on his honour, despite it being a transparently futile tactic in an obviously lost war?

How about just calling them small/loitering missiles or munitions? You don’t, I assume, call a cruise missile a ‘kamikaze missile’?

Amen. A drum I have been banging in futility for a decade too!

The use of the word ‘Kamikaze’ to describe what are essentially propeller powered missiles is also insensitive and inappropriate. Kamikaze pilots were brainwashed, usually very young human beings.

Polish PM says railway track blast was 'unprecedented act of sabotage' An explosion that damaged a Polish railway track on a route to Ukraine was an "unprecedented act of sabotage", Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on Monday, and he vowed to catch those responsible for an incident he said could have ended in tragedy.

Polish PM Donald Tusk confirms sabotage on Warsaw-Lublin rail line: Explosion destroyed track near Mika village; more damage found closer to Lublin. Key route for Ukraine aid—possible Russian hybrid attack. No injuries, but investigations ongoing.

www.reuters.com/world/explos...

China’s GJ-21 Naval UCAV Captured in Clearest Image Yet Believed to be a naval variant of the GJ-11, the GJ-21 is expected to operate from the Type 006 Sichuan LHD after mockups of the drone were spotted on

China’s GJ-21 Naval UCAV Captured in Clearest Image Yet

Believed to be a naval variant of the GJ-11, the GJ-21 is expected to operate from the Type 006 Sichuan LHD after mockups of the drone were spotted on test-sites representing the ship.

Story: theaviationist.com/2025/11/01/c...

Second Prototype of China’s J-36 Uncovered with Notable Structural Changes Several images showing what appears to be the second prototype of the J-36 heavy fighter have started circulating online. Several images showing what

Second Prototype of China’s J-36 Uncovered with Notable Structural Changes

Several images showing what appears to be the second prototype of the J-36 heavy fighter have started circulating online.

Story: theaviationist.com/2025/10/28/s...

AI Is the Bubble to Burst Them All I talked to the scholars who literally wrote the book on tech bubbles—and applied their test.

There's been endless talk about an AI bubble, but less about exactly how, why, and how much it's a bubble. So I turned to the framework put forward by scholars Brent Goldfarb and David A. Kirsch, authors of "Bubbles and Crashes," for assessing tech bubbles.

Spoiler: On a scale of 1 to 8, AI is an 8

PM: Deliveries of #Gripen E to Ukraine could begin in just about 3 years time.

PM also said donation of C/D still a possibility, but again, now it's full focus on F-16 and Mirage.

President Zelenskyy in Sweden today: Ukraine plans to buy 100-150 JAS-39 Gripen E fighters. Certainly a positive sign for the post-war prospects of the Ukrainian Air Force. Great EW suite, modern AESA radar, Meteor missile compatible.

But, it doesn't help win the current war.

Indonesia to Become Next Customer for China’s J-10C Fighter Jet Indonesia is allocating a $9 billion budget for the J-10C, with officials saying the jets will arrive soon, although it is unclear if a contract has been

Indonesia to Become Next Customer for China’s J-10C Fighter Jet

Indonesia is allocating a $9 billion budget for the J-10C, with officials saying the jets will arrive soon, although it is unclear if a contract has been signed already.

Story: theaviationist.com/2025/10/17/i...

First Look Inside the Su-57 Felon’s Weapons Bay A photo appeared online provides for the first time a look inside the Su-57’s main weapon bays, which so far were only seen closed. We may have our first

First Look Inside the Su-57 Felon’s Weapons Bay

A photo appeared online provides for the first time a look inside the Su-57’s main weapon bays, which so far were only seen closed.

Story: theaviationist.com/2025/10/18/f...