Manny Hernandez

Map showing surface weather station observations on 9th Feb 2026

Map showing surface weather station observations on 9th Mar 2026

Certainly not the most important issue with the current situation in the Middle East, but there is a new Iran shaped hole in our surface weather observation network.

In this example, measurements of surface pressure fed into operational weather forecasts: 9th Feb (left) and 9th Mar (right)

The Inspector General for NSF must launch an investigation into the Trump administration’s alleged attempt to sell-off parts of NCAR — immediately!

👇🏽👇🏽👇🏽

The "RFK Jr Curve"

NSF NCAR Stories As part of its coverage of, and response to, federal plans to break up the NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (NSF NCAR), the American Meteorological Society is collecting testimonials from ...

If you have personal testimonials about how @ncar-ucar.bsky.social has benefited your career, submit your story to @ametsoc.org via this web form. #SaveNCAR docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...

Paleoclimate 🤝 Pattern effect, you can do amazing things when paleo and modelers hang out together www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

More dark days to come. 😭

I guess I’m not surprised but the characterization of people re: Zillow as being either “for” or “against” climate transparency is so simplistic. You can be all for climate data and also questioning whether products like First Street are appropriate for property level risk assessment.

2026 NSF SOARS® First-Year Protege Job Description Summary: UCAR is excited to announce the application opening of the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) Significant Opportunities in Atmospheric Research and Science (SOARS) program...

Undergraduate opportunity! 📣 The NSF SOARS program is open for applications! SOARS is an undergrad-grad bridge program focusing on promoting and supporting research, mentoring, and community.

Learn more about eligibility and the app process:
ucar.wd5.myworkdayjobs.com/en-US/UCAR_C...

Inspired by Brian's chart, I investigated how much time North Atlantic named storms spent at hurricane and at major hurricane strength during 1966-2025.

Blue = proportion for "hurricane time" (category 1-5).
Orange = proportion for "major hurricane time" (category 3-5).

More details in alt text!

Systematic attribution of heatwaves to the emissions of carbon majors - Nature Climate change made 213 historical heatwaves reported over 2000–2023 more likely and more intense, to which each of the 180 carbon majors (fossil fuel and cement producers) substantially contributed.

🚨 Important paper in Nature: "Systematic attribution of heatwaves to the emissions of carbon majors".

www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Carbon majors and the scientific case for climate liability Nature - A transparent and reproducible scientific framework is introduced to formalize how trillions in economic losses are attributable to the extreme heat caused by emissions from fossil fuel...

🚨📈 Over the last 6 months a series of papers has advanced our understanding of the culpability of fossil fuel firms for climate change impacts. In April, @jsmankin.bsky.social and I showed that economic damages from rising extreme heat can be linked to companies like Exxon and Chevron. rdcu.be/ei0T5

The raw temperature deal Temperature records are adjusted for changes in measurement techniques over time, but the net effect on global temperatures is small

Temperature data has to occasionally be corrected for measurement biases. This process is guided by the best available science. But, if you insist on using the raw data, guess what? "Raw temperatures actually show more warming"
open.substack.com/pub/theclima...

The US is building a record amount of electricity generation capacity in 2025 to meet rapidly growing demand. And its overwhelmingly clean energy, with a bit of gas. Meanwhile the Trump administration wants to stop permitting of new solar and wind projects.

This is devastating, and part of a larger move to entirely push science out of NASA's mission. It is horrific betrayal of so much work, not to mention the fact that it violates NASA's charter.

The recent DOE climate science report misrepresents the work of many researchers. Carbon Brief asked those cited to review the parts of the report where their work was used, and we collectively found 100+ misleading or false statements: interactive.carbonbr...

Set of three maps in one column spanning the eastern North Pacific and North Atlantic to show (top) sea surface temperature (SST) values during July 2025 according to NOAA's OISST dataset, (middle) the SST anomalies relative to the July 1991-2020 average, and (bottom) the z-scores for these SST values relative to the July 1991-2020 average. Positive values show SSTs above normal, negative values show SSTs below normal. The solid black contour is drawn for 26°C, above which waters tend to be warm enough to help a TC and below which waters tend to be too cold.

Now that it's August, let's see where July ended up this year! SSTs were above 26°C across much of the Atlantic, though not all regions were anomalously warm.

A z-score reveals how many standard deviations the value is from the mean. Both anomalies & z-scores are computed from the 1991-2020 period.

How the DOE and EPA used and misused my research Elevating contrarian views while burying the actual science

On The Climate Brink, Zeke Hausfather explains how the recent DOE climate report, written by climate contrarians, misrepresents his work.

www.theclimatebrink....

Some people are mis-using IPCC Table 12.12 to falsely claim that the latest IPCC assessment is that most types of extreme weather have not increased. Thread to explain why they're wrong.

Smoke from climate-fueled wildfires contributed to thousands of US deaths over 15 years, study says A new study out in the journal Nature Communications Earth & Environment finds that wildfires fueled by climate change are linked to as many as thousands of annual deaths and billions of dollars i...

“Wildfires driven by climate change contribute to as many as thousands of annual deaths and billions of dollars in economic costs from wildfire smoke in the United States, according to a new study.”

RealClimate: The Endangerment of the Endangerment Finding? RealClimate: The EPA, along with the "Climate Working Group" (CWG) of usual suspects (plus Judith Curry and Ross McKitrick) at DOE, have just put out a document for public comment their attempt to res...

AI in the DOE report? This ref (p29) is fake:

Lee, S., Byrne, M. P., Loikith, P. C., & O’Dell, C. W. (2024). Zonal contrasts of the tropical Pacific climate predicted by a global constraint. Climate Dynamics, 62(1–2), 229–246. doi:10.1007/s00382-023-06741-7

www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar...

This is like firing all the carpenters because you’ve got a shiny new hammer. It’s a tool. And one that currently is as likely to bonk you in the head vs. hit the nail.

Senate budget bill clear rebuke to administration plans to gut science Meanwhile, OPM head says "whatever"

The Senate Approps Committee approved the "CJS" budget bill yesterday that would provide funding for NOAA, NASA and NSF. I did a semi-deep dive this morning, and talked about how the administration seems to be saying "whatever" to Congress re: the budget. More here:

substack.com/@balancedwea...

A thunderstorm produces multiple strikes to the desert landscape. Single exposure, 1/4 second, f/8, ISO 64, 32mm.

In-cloud lignting ("anvil crawler") from a thunderstorm. Cathedral Rock in located in the center; Courthouse Butte to the left.

Lightning strike to Bear Mtn with the Cockscomb in the center foreground. Single frame, 1/15 second, f/8, ISO 64, 50mm.

The North American Monsoon (NAM) has been inconsistent this summer over N AZ: on-again, off-again, but mostly off. Nonetheless, I did get a chance to shoot some lightning in Sedona, AZ, the other day.

#azwx #weather #lightning

Here's Why There's So Much Flash Flooding in the U.S. Right Now (Gift Article) July’s hot temperatures and moist air are the perfect ingredients for rain.

Really like this combination of rainfall info and hydrologic context (geology, wildfire burn scars, impervious surface) ⚒️🧪

🎁 There’s a Flash Flood Season, and This Is It www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

To illustrate just how much of the United States is uninsured against flood risk, take note of this statistic:

Just 25 counties (nearly all of them coastal) account for 50% (!!!) of all active NFIP policies.

Usable Climate Risk Science: Webinar One YouTube video by US CLIVAR

for those who missed the CLIVAR climate risk webinar, it's now online. great talks by @kellyhereid.bsky.social, @climatefran.bsky.social, and Zong-Liang Yang.
youtu.be/sktn8mu98UQ?...

I guess now we know why they were targeting islands occupied by only penguins…

Repealing the inflation reduction act clean energy policies will make your electricity bills higher, while climate change makes your neighborhood hotter.

Drivers of the extreme North Atlantic marine heatwave during 2023 - Nature Atmospheric reanalyses combined with ocean observations and model simulations show that the extreme 2023 North Atlantic heatwave was primarily driven by anomalously weak winds leading to strongly shoa...

Looks like we finally have an explanation for why the Atlantic (and, by extension, the Earth) was so warm of 2023. From Matt England et al.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Still more climate and catastrophe research positions in insurance: