Sarah Godek

China’s Shifting Landscape in Afghanistan – South Asian Voices China’s cautious engagement with Taliban-led Afghanistan is reshaping its influence as the Taliban courts new partners like India and Russia. Once seen as a top ally, Beijing now faces rising competit...

#China may be seeing increased competition from other countries in #Afghanistan; see my new piece in South Asian Voices here 👇 southasianvoices.org/geo-f-n-oth-...

Update on China-Afghanistan Relations • Stimson Center This monthly update highlights major events, statements, and bilateral interactions driving China’s relations with Afghanistan at a time when the Taliban sees China as a crucial partner.

New from me: Update on China-Afghanistan Relations for April. It was a quiet month for China in Afghanistan, but not for Russia. Check it out! www.stimson.org/2024/update-...

China’s Germanium and Gallium Export Restrictions: Consequences for the United States • Stimson Center Despite China’s export restrictions, germanium and gallium are still reaching the United States through indirect trade routes

www.stimson.org/2025/chinas-...

Excited to share a piece I wrote on the effects of China’s germanium and gallium export restrictions!

Chinese trade data shows no gallium or germanium going to the United States in 2024, so why does US trade data show material coming in from China? The answer could be reexport. Give it a read! 👇

Update on China-Afghanistan Relations • Stimson Center This monthly update highlights major events, statements, and bilateral interactions driving China’s relations with Afghanistan at a time when the Taliban sees China as a crucial partner.

All this and more in the February update on China-Afghanistan relations! www.stimson.org/2024/update-...

4. Competition: Bloomberg reported India will allow a Taliban ambassador-level post in New Delhi to counter China’s influence in Afghanistan. Bad news for China; analysts already note Afghanistan’s positive perceptions of India and fear U.S.-India coordination in the country.

3. UN Feud: the United States and China are feuding over who should hold the pen on resolutions related to Afghanistan at the UNSC. Holding the pen could give China more control over the direction of the UN’s direction on Afghanistan — and maybe more leverage over the Taliban?

2. The Chinese Embassy in Afghanistan agrees the situation is worsening: the embassy warned citizens not to travel to Afghanistan in the near future, a more severe warning than the one issued last month, warning citizens to not go out or take armed security if they must go out.

1. Chinese analysts saw a worsening situation in Afghanistan, highlighting missing senior officials and a series of attacks by anti-Taliban forces.

What happened in China-Afghanistan relations in February? 🧵

Update on China-Afghanistan Relations • Stimson Center This monthly update highlights major events, statements, and bilateral interactions driving China’s relations with Afghanistan at a time when the Taliban sees China as a crucial partner.

See the latest data here: www.stimson.org/2024/update-...

5. No interactions between China’s ambassador to Afghanistan and Taliban officials were reported by the Chinese embassy from December 10 to January 20, the biggest lapse in reporting since May–August 2023.

4. Reports of China-led mediation between Afghanistan and Pakistan dwindled, with more international efforts reported. The UAE was reportedly mediating and efforts by UNSC members’ representatives were also reported.

3. India emerged as a possible player in Afghanistan, meeting with the Taliban’s acting foreign minister in Dubai, to the dismay of some Chinese analysts who feared U.S.-India coordination on Afghanistan.

2. China and Afghanistan celebrated the 70th anniversary of China-Afghanistan, the first such celebration publicized since 2020.

1. A Chinese national with a license to mine was killed in Takhar one day after the anniversary of China-Afghanistan relations. The Chinese embassy urged adherence to Afghanistan’s mining laws and reminded citizens to not travel to Afghanistan. China’s government lodged serious protests.

What was new in China-Afghanistan relations in January? A thread 👇

Closing the de minimis loophole will be another challenge for Chinese exporters; many have been exploiting the loophole when they ship goods to the United States through Mexico.

A signal that China doesn’t think the Taliban is doing enough to keep its citizens safe. It will be interesting to see how this changes the patterns of China’s already cautious investment in Afghanistan this year

Chinese citizen 'murdered' in northern Afghanistan A Chinese citizen was "murdered" in Afghanistan's northern Takhar province, the Taliban provincial police said on Wednesday, adding that a preliminary investigation had been launched.

A Chinese citizen is reported to have been killed in Takhar. Unfortunate timing; China and Afghanistan just celebrated the 70th anniversary of relations Monday after the anniversary went unmarked last year.

www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...

Update on China-Afghanistan Relations • Stimson Center This monthly update highlights major events, statements, and bilateral interactions driving China’s relations with Afghanistan at a time when the Taliban sees China as a crucial partner.

All this and more in the December update on China-Afghanistan relations! www.stimson.org/2024/update-...

6) Cold storage: the Chinese government plans to build three facilities with 1500-ton capacity in Kabul, Takhar, and Badakhshan.

5) New dam: the Chinese contractor for the Mes Aynak mine signed agreements for feasibility studies for the Baghdara dam, which will supply electricity to the mine.

4) Gold and oil: drilling is reportedly underway at a Chinese gold mine in Chah Ab and the final equipment arrived at the Amu Darya oil basin project.

3) Zhao Xing meets with the Haqqanis: Zhao met with Khalil-ur-Rahman Haqqani on Dec 1 before Haqqani was killed Dec 11 in an ISIS-K attack. Zhao also met with his nephew Sirajuddin Haqqani late on Dec 30, days after an NRF attack near Sirajuddin’s ministry.

2) 70th anniversary of relations: Ambassador Zhao Xing highlighted the January 20 anniversary is coming soon, after the anniversary went unmarked last year.

1) Mediation failure: despite Chinese and Russian efforts to mediate, Afghanistan-Pakistan tensions sharply increased after Pakistan launched strikes on Afghan territory on the day of Pakistan-Afghanistan talks in Kabul.

What’s new in China-Afghanistan relations? 🧵

Under the Nuclear Shadow How and why China has pursued information-age weapons to gain leverage against its adversaries

Launch day! My new book “Under the Nuclear Shadow” about China’s approach to strategic deterrence and information-age weapons is officially out with @princetonupress.bsky.social ! To read more about it and order it, see press.princeton.edu/books/paperb...

Yes!