Ahead of tomorrow's #COMPET, here’s the ECF debate in a nutshell. @lucas-res-car.bsky.social and I share 7 recommendations for a fund that delivers: strategically focused, flexible, and well-governed.
1/ The Industrial Accelerator Act (IAA) leaked yesterday. The draft is still very raw: major provisions are missing, placeholders run throughout, and key annexes are empty or absent. This is clearly not the final word ahead of its presentation on 29 Jan – more below.
How should the EU react to Trump’s tariff threats over Greenland? Get out of self-deterrence, launch the Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI) and focus on concrete levers instead of the next abstract tools debate. This is an explainer how this could work: 1/ 🧵
If you want to know what the EU will really do in the 2030s, follow the debate on the EU’s long-term budget (MFF) in 2026. I contributed a short take on what to watch as negotiations heat up.
This and more in our team's outlook for 2026.
New policy brief with Thieß Petersen @bst-europe.bsky.social : More and deeper EU trade agreements would only bring moderate growth effects - around 0.6 percent of EU GDP in five years, even under very optimistic assumptions (more in some sectors). Why this matters and what to do now: 🧵
Today’s Sustainability Omnibus vote in the EP marks a turning point for the EU’s centrist coalition & sets course for the rest of the simplification agenda. The EPP broke with traditional partners, seeking a majority with far-right groups to deliver its vision of how to cut sustainability rules.
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A stepped line chart titled “The progression of Trump’s tariffs” shows the effective US global tariff rate from 1900 to 2025. The rate, near 9.8 per cent in early 2025, rises through successive tariff announcements to an estimated 16.4 per cent by September 2025 — the highest in nearly a century. Annotations mark key moments such as “Liberation day,” tariff threats on the EU, and new deals with Vietnam, Indonesia, and Japan.
Trump’s trade war has unfolded as a series of threats, announcements, pauses, starts and deals, and the coining by the FT’s own @robarmstrong.bsky.social of the term “Taco” — Trump always chickens out. Even with all the changes, the de facto tariff rate is at its highest level in nearly a century.
Metsola seems to suggest that, because the European Council has said so, Parliament will have no choice but to push through the omnibus with votes from the far right after Wednesday’s failed vote. This is a worrying stance and a puzzling view of the EP’s relationship with EU leaders
