If you only look at midterm primaries/general elections, it looks even better for Democrats. In fact it would predict Dems are going to win by 10 points (55%), which is maybe too high to be believable, but interesting. 3/3
The graph below looks at 2010-2024 statewide races and Dem share of primary votes. The 2026 prediction is 48.4% Dem vote share. So, not quite “Blexas” — however, the specific candidates in the race could help Democrats over the edge. 2/3
There's been lots of chatter about the large Democratic share of primary turnout in Texas, with the implication that higher Dem turnout means Dems will do better in the general election. Is that true? I quickly asked Claude to look into this. 1/3
open.substack.com/pub/locomoti...
Gig alert. The MIT Election Data and Science Lab is searching for a new Research Support Associate to support research in the lab. The ideal candidate is just graduating & wanting to see what a research environment is like before going on to graduate school. careers.peopleclick.com/careerscp/c...
A drag on the ticket? Estimating top‐of‐the‐ticket effects on down‐ballot races by Kevin DeLuca, Daniel J. Moskowitz, and Benjamin Schneer is now available in Early View. @cantstopkevin.bsky.social @danmoskowitz.bsky.social @benschneer.bsky.social ow.ly/8Hun50XAhmq
