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Peter Williams

@pd-williams

Climbing, skiing, rates’ musing economist

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05.12.2024
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Latest posts by Peter Williams @pd-williams

It’s a subtle but deeply tangible difference when you spend time there. The presumptions people treat each other with just feel so different

05.03.2026 16:17 👍 45 🔁 1 💬 1 📌 1

*This should say quits instead JOLTS for the second one

05.03.2026 01:25 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Gross hiring in JOLTS seems fairly uninteresting to me given the relative steadiness of its spread to JOLTS and the more obviously recessionary, or not, implications of movements in layoffs

05.03.2026 00:28 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 2 📌 0

For years on my old blog I published the names of servicemembers who died in Iraq & Afghanistan. No other outlets were.

These are the first 4 Americans to die in the Iran War.
Capt. Cody A. Khork, 35
Sgt. 1st Class Noah L. Tietjens, 42
Sgt. 1st Class Nicole M. Amor, 39
Sgt. Declan J. Coady, 20

03.03.2026 23:07 👍 8998 🔁 2995 💬 428 📌 162
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Montana Congressman Ryan Zinke to retire, will not seek reelection Congressman Ryan Zinke announced he will not seek reelection for a fourth term representing Montana’s first Congressional District, citing health issues.

ABC FOX Montana reports Ryan Zinke will not seek reelection to the U.S. House.

House Democrats are targeting this seat and have already invested heavily in flipping it.

A significant retirement:
www.montanarightnow.com/elections/co...

02.03.2026 19:58 👍 1351 🔁 310 💬 43 📌 59

What’s the metric Dario? Have been wondering about a version of a Goodhart’s Law critique on AI models tuned to specific fitness metrics

24.02.2026 17:21 👍 5 🔁 0 💬 2 📌 0

Given the data on their improving survival rates part of me thinks that given that I can afford it it seems dumb not to get one for any days that aren’t a green brick

22.02.2026 18:47 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Do you own an avy bag for normal touring or just rent when you go heli skiing?

22.02.2026 18:24 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
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Alysa Liu Is Skating Again, Her Way This Time

Her father fled China because he organized student protests during Tiananmen. He was a political refugee. The story of this family, and Alysa Liu, would have played out very differently today. This is what we're losing. www.nytimes.com/2026/02/19/w...

20.02.2026 13:09 👍 3666 🔁 948 💬 20 📌 33
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Alysa Liu: "THAT'S WHAT I'M FUCKING TALKING ABOUT" 🗣️

19.02.2026 21:43 👍 8700 🔁 1918 💬 3 📌 531

Really interesting framing of the basic intuition around dispersion feeling different with low NFP*. Thanks Jason

19.02.2026 20:33 👍 3 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Does make me a big jealous; just never get storms like that when you’re not right near the coast

18.02.2026 21:27 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

The guide/client relationship seems so hard to get right in consequential terrain

You’re there to learn and follow into things you might not otherwise get into, but still need to keep heads up and be willing to question too. Not an easy balance for even experienced students or the most instructors

18.02.2026 16:56 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

In reading initial reports + NYT I immediate thought of expert halo and familiarity (at least for the experts) issues playing a role. Or hangfire from hell

Too early to know anything but a sobering opportunity to ponder the dangerous dance we do in the mountains for those not closer to the tragedy

18.02.2026 16:55 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
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Snow Fall: The Avalanche at Tunnel Creek Fresh powder beckoned 16 expert skiers and snowboarders into the backcountry. Then the snow gave way.

Lots of questions and hopefully some answers in time, even if most of them will be tragic

Went back and reread John Branch’s masterful recounting of the Tunnel Creek avalanche which seems to at least rhyme a bit with this situation from afar www.nytimes.com/projects/201...

18.02.2026 16:06 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

The early reporting on this is absolutely horrifying. Cannot imagine what must’ve happened for them all to be out there

18.02.2026 01:44 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
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The men’s big air finals with the snow pouring down are an absolute treat to watch

18.02.2026 01:43 👍 1 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0

I think this has certainly helped fuel how much more popular European and Asian vacations are with people, esp younger, now.

“If I’m blowing that much in the States I might as well go abroad, eat the flight cost, but have a cheaper + more novel experience once I arrive”

15.02.2026 21:35 👍 7 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

Juan Jamon was not spotted :(

09.02.2026 01:56 👍 7 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

In 2026:

-20K will be a soft but not terrible jobs report

+15k will be a decent jobs report

+50K will be a good jobs report

+100K will be a great jobs report

08.02.2026 21:22 👍 19 🔁 7 💬 3 📌 4

Hipsterdom spread fancy coffee, beers, and farm to table everywhere so there’s much less of an anchor to novel scenes now

Could’ve said the western and sunbelt boomtowns for a time but they never had the cultural weight. Cowboy/workwear having a moment but that’s not particularly regional

08.02.2026 17:56 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Two cities under siege Remarkably similar scenes from Boston and Minneapolis, 260 years apart, show a federal government betraying its founding principles.

ICYMI: I looked through a published archive of Boston newspapers from the 1760s, when British troops were stationed in the city.

The accounts read remarkably similar to what's happening in Minneapolis.

radleybalko.substack.com/p/two-cities...

27.01.2026 13:25 👍 1897 🔁 654 💬 35 📌 44

The people of Minnesota have executed one of the most impressive civil resistance campaigns I can remember:

- Organized a city wide general strike
- Maintained nonviolent discipline amidst violence
- Mobilized 10,000s in subzero temps to protest and watch ICE
- Flipped public opinion against ICE

26.01.2026 16:17 👍 32033 🔁 7603 💬 486 📌 369
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Happy to help, sir.

From Judge Ellis:

"Bovino admitted in his deposition that he lied multiple times about the events that occurred in Little Village that prompted him to throw tear gas at protesters."

26.01.2026 15:56 👍 700 🔁 196 💬 28 📌 8
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A heck of a chart: in every single one of the 10 major US cities that built the most housing between 2017 and 2023, rents for older, existing units fell—often by quite a bit.

06.01.2026 17:18 👍 1038 🔁 343 💬 25 📌 73

Was just marveling this morning how fruit here seems to get better in the dead of winter as LatAm moves into later summer and early fall

10.01.2026 18:29 👍 3 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 1
06.01.2026 20:04 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Someone’s dog got snatched from perhaps the single most popular trail in Bozeman last summer. Right above town with tons of traffic but its a steep trail with lots of scrappy brush and rocky areas all around

05.01.2026 02:39 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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This is how I learned I’m a better fit for finance culture and tech culture. You only succeed in tech culture by fully embracing the Current Thing and being all-in on it: danwang.co/2025-letter/

01.01.2026 15:30 👍 103 🔁 8 💬 7 📌 6

Run my first ultra and get into much better skiing shape

01.01.2026 00:01 👍 6 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0