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Jacob Montgomery

@jacobmontgomery

Political (Data) Scientist at Washington University in St. Louis. Data science, social media, American politics, and grumpy Bayesian. All opinions my own.

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Latest posts by Jacob Montgomery @jacobmontgomery

Well .... did it work?

03.03.2026 22:36 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

It continues to be really wild watching Trump make the Iraq War look well managed and well thought put by comparison

03.03.2026 17:15 πŸ‘ 60 πŸ” 14 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

The question then is obviously why Marco Rubio didn't tell Marco Rubio to prepare for this...

03.03.2026 13:35 πŸ‘ 69 πŸ” 7 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 1

Losing losers lose again.

Although no one looks worse than the early rush-to-comply caucus.

02.03.2026 19:30 πŸ‘ 22 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Fighting back works. Please take notes university leaders.

02.03.2026 19:26 πŸ‘ 130 πŸ” 36 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Trump has offered effectively zero rationale to the public and the result is confusion and diffidence - 68% say not justified or not sure; only 62% of Rs say justified

28.02.2026 22:08 πŸ‘ 52 πŸ” 18 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 1

Trump administration to every vendor:

27.02.2026 20:53 πŸ‘ 783 πŸ” 153 πŸ’¬ 45 πŸ“Œ 4

If folks are using GenAI to search for info, might be important to know what's returned and how consistently. Neat application here to political candidates. To me the variance across LLMs in what sources are included and how regularly is fascinating.

27.02.2026 15:49 πŸ‘ 9 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

I really feel that a major failing of APSA is that there are no opportunities for us to all watch musicals and classic movies together at least one night.

24.02.2026 02:24 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

"The central plot idea is that the Phantom and Christine have slept together. If people don't buy that, then they're never going to come onboard with the show, they're never going to respond to it."

Oh God what on earth...

24.02.2026 01:57 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Yeah but I think you are supposed to feel like he is a tragic figure instead ... you know .... horrible.

24.02.2026 01:53 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Whaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!!!???!!!!!!

24.02.2026 01:52 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

@sgadarian.bsky.social I think i need your guidance on this issue.

23.02.2026 22:28 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Like I think at the end we are supposed to feel sympathy for the Phantom? But mostly I was kinda hoping that a#@%ole was actually dead.

23.02.2026 22:21 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

The Phantom of the Opera as a precursor to the contemporary incel movement, a praxis in three parts ....

23.02.2026 22:19 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
a man wearing a black sweater is making a funny face . ALT: a man wearing a black sweater is making a funny face .

Took my oldest to see Phantom of the Opera, which was very fun and the songs still hold up. Although ... the plot is much more deeply problematic than I had remembered.

23.02.2026 22:17 πŸ‘ 5 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
Einstein - AI Homework Agent Einstein logs into Canvas and does your homework automatically. He has his own computer β€” he can watch lectures, read essays, write papers, and participate in discussions.

Is this bad

23.02.2026 15:06 πŸ‘ 1414 πŸ” 330 πŸ’¬ 159 πŸ“Œ 614

that seems very bad.

23.02.2026 19:49 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Post image Post image Post image

Was thinking more about AI lit reviews, so I gave Opus 4.6 a shot to do a lit review I know well (marginal structural models in the social sciences). Looked pretty good until it credited me with a paper by @smtorres.bsky.social

Unfortunately, Google AI overview confirmed by authorship...

23.02.2026 18:57 πŸ‘ 13 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 7 πŸ“Œ 0

I know we are well past this but …..

… just imagine if Obama had done this ….

20.02.2026 01:17 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Treating this as a debate worthy of discussion over the last several years is a huge part of the problem, as it has been for things like "do tax cuts pay for themselves?" & "does mass voter fraud exist?" & "can the United States of America afford to pay its debts?" since about 1980.

19.02.2026 18:40 πŸ‘ 30 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Weird how holding politicians accountable when they try and illegally subvert democracy seems to work everywhere in the world, but in America it is just too extreme.

19.02.2026 18:43 πŸ‘ 5 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Monks - Monty Python and The Holy Grail
Monks - Monty Python and The Holy Grail YouTube video by Azgar1988

Opening band for the university summit to "restore trust in higher education" (probably)

www.youtube.com/watch?v=YgYE...

09.02.2026 18:43 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
Opinion | Universities are sending Trump a dangerous message Higher education is under attack. Drop the appeasement.

A powerful call for university leaders to live up to the moment. And I am once again embarrassed to find my own university lining up on the wrong side of history.

www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

09.02.2026 18:37 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Between the ads for AI and the AI ads I feel like this is some sort of cultural inflection point.

09.02.2026 02:40 πŸ‘ 10 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Love that open AI just put up Bayes theorem in their ad like it was some kind of new invention.

09.02.2026 00:22 πŸ‘ 16 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 3
Kaitlan Collins
@kaitlancollins
President Trump now says it was Attorney General Pam Bondi who insisted DNI Tulsi Gabbard attend the FBI raid in Georgia. Last night, he told NBC he didn't know why she was there. And Gabbard said in a letter to Congress that "the president specifically directed my observance of the execution of the Fulton County search warrant."

Kaitlan Collins @kaitlancollins President Trump now says it was Attorney General Pam Bondi who insisted DNI Tulsi Gabbard attend the FBI raid in Georgia. Last night, he told NBC he didn't know why she was there. And Gabbard said in a letter to Congress that "the president specifically directed my observance of the execution of the Fulton County search warrant."

I want to reiterate that this shit is nuts. A federal invasion of state-run elections, an intelligence community invasion of federal law enforcement, a White House invasion of a criminal investigation, and a president’s insane treasonable sore loser obsession all rolled up and muddled together.

05.02.2026 21:16 πŸ‘ 4817 πŸ” 1526 πŸ’¬ 123 πŸ“Œ 72

Oh yes, that seems right. There is a big basked of people who see all of this violence and democratic decline and think it's awesome. Someone should come up with a technical name for them ...

02.02.2026 21:01 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0