@awhf
Columbia SIPA professor studying labor policy, politics of policy design, and political economy. Co-director of Consortium on American Political Economy & Columbia Labor Lab. Former Biden-Harris Department of Labor and Office of Management and Budget.
“The agents gained entry by stating they were police searching for a missing child.” Message from Claire Shipman, Columbia’s Acting President, to the Columbia community, sent a few minutes ago.
What happens now that the Ellisons will have both CBS News, plus CNN?
*Dems could set out a populist anti-trust platform for the next election
*Desperate need for new independent media sources - follow nonprofit or other models
What else?
No. NO. NO NO NO.
Today, Mariana Pargendler explains how, in 1937, Brazil adopted a bold legal innovation to protect workers that remains virtually nonexistent in the Global North: imposing joint and several liability on parent companies for labor obligations.
My latest research looks at how the unemployment insurance system systematically disadvantages women who are out of work -- and offers practical policy recommendations for states and the federal government.
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The Median Voter Theorem is a Clarity Trap www.programmablemutter.com/p/the-median...
This is as good as any contrast between Trump and Biden: state capacity to help people from predatory capital is done. Instead the only growth in state capacity is is in building its coercive powers.
NEW: ICE has a plan to lease offices across the US as part of a secret, months-long expansion campaign.
Today, @wired.com is publishing dozens of those locations. Many are near schools, medical offices, and places of worship.
Vital work from @leahfeiger.bsky.social that I'm proud to publish.
Aw, thanks Matt! We’re so glad you and the @niskanencenter.bsky.social folks are digging into the alternatives to experience rating!
I think the Alaska system is probably better than most states, but I think the "good" incentives also backfire - experience rating causes firms to reduce *hiring* (especially of younger, riskier workers), not just layoffs.
Thanks Brian! Excited to hear your thoughts.
A coda! @alixgouldwerth.bsky.social and I met volunteering at a UI clinic in Michigan during grad school and we've been thinking about these ideas for over 10 years!
A big thanks to Luke Shaefer for bringing us together all those years ago, and to the Michigan UI clinic for the work they did!
This isn't a new concern and unions raised fears about making employers "so unemployment-compensation conscious that they will fight every claim" way back in the 1930s.
As we think about revamping the safety net, it is time to revisit these concerns. 6/
Experience rating needs more attention from policymakers and advocates for the perverse incentives it creates for employers to fight worker UI claims.
One idea is to charge employers higher taxes based on their layoffs, not benefit claims. (AK does this.) That would preserve "good" incentives. 5/
Employers now have a "boom industry" of consultants like Equifax to help them challenge UI claims to lower taxes (see below for one ad from Equifax).
It's another important way that businesses profit over making the safety net harder to access, as @lukef.bsky.social has also documented. 4/
We find that around a quarter of applicants have their claims contested, and if they are contested, they are less likely to receive benefits.
As a result, we find that contestations are correlated with greater material hardship and administrative burden during unemployment spells. 3/
The US is essentially unique in making employers pay more if their workers claim more UI benefits. It has important benefits, discouraging layoffs.
But employers can also lower their taxes by contesting worker claims. Using a national survey of unemployed workers, we study these contestations. 2/
As we think about the safety net we might need to deal with job displacement risk, UI reform will be super important.
@alixgouldwerth.bsky.social and I have a new piece about our research on one perverse aspect of the UI system: its reliance on employer taxes that rise with benefit claims. 1/
New from @awhf.bsky.social & @alixgouldwerth.bsky.social
at Can We Still Govern?
Did you know that your former employers can contest your unemployment benefits? They have a strong incentive to do so, and private companies like Equifax are helping them. 🧵
donmoynihan.substack.com/p/why-your-b...
The first page of a child’s handwritten letter, written in different colors of pencil. Transcript: “Hello, my name is Susej F and I’am 9 years old. I’am from Venezuela. I have been 50 days in Dilley Immigration Processing Center. And I want to go to my Country. But I miss my school and my friends I feel bad since when I came here to this Place, because I have been here too long. I have been 2 years and 6 months in united states, and I was happy with my friends in The school but now I need to leave. I miss my family in my country so now I want To go to Venezuela. But my mom do not want to leave because she wants a better future for me.”
The second page of a child’s handwritten letter, written in pencil on notebook paper. Transcript: “Seen how people like me, immigrants are been treated changes my perspective about the U.S. My mom and I came to The U.S looking for a good and safe place to live, and my mom was looking for a Good job.”
2/ “I miss my school and my friends I feel bad since when I came here to this Place, because I have been here too long.”
From 9-year-old Susej F, detained for 50+ days
Also, may I say that I don’t agree with people saying ICE and CBP need “more training.” They’re doing exactly what this administration has trained them to—impose a reign of fear in blue cities. They don’t need more training. They need to be ripped up root and branch.
Reminder: All it would take to end the murder of American citizens by an untrained government goon squad is 16 Republicans in Congress voting with Dems to defund ICE (or 23 to impeach and remove Trump — 3 in House & 20 in Senate). That’s it. 23 Americans can vote for the public and end all of this.
Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz: "Thank God. Thank God we have video. Because according to DHS, these 7 heroic guys took an onslaught of a battalion against him or something. It's nonsense, people. It is nonsense and it's lies."
Signs that you might live in a police state, albeit one where civil society is still strong
I hate to keep beating this drum, but it's important. The Trump EPA's action has nothing to do with monetization. This is good old fashioned science denial. www.nytimes.com/2026/01/21/c...
This line graph illustrates the percentage change in agency staff levels from the previous year for nine major U.S. federal scientific and health organizations between the fiscal years 2016 and 2025. The agencies tracked include the CDC, Department of Energy, EPA, FDA, NASA, NIH, NIST, NOAA, and NSF. For the majority of the timeline between 2016 and 2023, the agencies show relatively stable fluctuations, generally staying within a range of +5% to -5% change per year. However, there is a dramatic and uniform plummet starting in the 2024–25 period. Every agency depicted shows a sharp downward trajectory, with staffing losses ranging from approximately -15% to over -25%. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) shows the most significant decline, dropping to roughly -26%, while the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) shows the least severe but still substantial drop at approximately -15%.
This is the most astonishing graph of what the Trump regime has done to US science. They have destroyed the federal science workforce across the board. The negative impacts on Americans will be felt for generations, and the US might never be the same again.
www.nature.com/immersive/d4...
People will get sicker. More people will have heart attacks and lung disease and other health challenges because of pollution. People’s lives will get worse, and shorter. People you know. Maybe me. Maybe you.
Our winter issue, Socialism in the City, is out now!
Featuring @resnikoff.bsky.social @wlacher.bsky.social @yguichaoua.bsky.social @awhf.bsky.social @alanyan.bsky.social @atossaaraxia.bsky.social @mmschwartz.bsky.social @cgmaisano.bsky.social @arvinalaigh.bsky.social @ninasparling.bsky.social
I have a new post over at @donmoyn.bsky.social's blog discussing the legal authority the president has over the civil service and why the other branches need to do more to prevent the destruction of the administrative state.
donmoynihan.substack.com/p/how-much-p...
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/08/o...