Paul Price

Humanity heating planet faster than ever before, study finds Researchers identify sharp rise to about 0.35C every decade, after excluding natural fluctuations such as El Niño

The Guardian on our new study, which shows that global heating is significantly gathering speed. Our efforts to overcome our fossil fuel addiction should do the same.
www.theguardian.com/environment/...

AI agents pose untold risk to humanity. We must act to prevent that future | David Krueger The pieces are falling into place for autonomous artificial intelligence. We must stop unregulated development

"We can’t afford to wait until AI systems are not only autonomous, but self-sufficient to stop this.
It’s time for humanity to wake up & smell the looming crisis, & put an end to the unregulated development of increasingly powerful, autonomous, unconstrained AI."
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

"But no we didn’t act on the science when we should have...
There are consequences to this failure.
If one of these is we realise we must turn our attentions and efforts to radical mitigation, then we would have learnt something important."

While I feel for those losing their jobs, this is the kind of strong response we need from the @epaireland.bsky.social for chronic polluters of our waterways. This plant got away with polluting for far too many years, it's high time it was shut down.

Our waters deserve protection, no excuses.

Pod of this week’s Last Word on the environment with Matt Cooper on Today FM now available.

We discussed the Iran war and Ireland’s energy vulnerability, plus Costa Rica and more.

www.todayfm.com/podcasts/the...

Smokeless fuels cause health risks as previously unknown pollutants found Study led by Irish scientists shows low-smoke fuels at least double emissions of toxic ultrafine particles

Low smoke doesn't mean low risk - research into smokeless and low-smoke fuels led by @ovadnevaite.bsky.social at @uniofgalway.bsky.social
www.irishtimes.com/health/2026/...

Great to see that water matters to the agri-food sector in Ireland. So I assume that means they'll stop lobbying for nitrates derogations and start taking concrete actions to restore and protect our national waterways, right? 🤔
#Speirgorm

At public meeting on offshore wind farms in Dublin last night, speaker’s Gotcha slide featured monstrously huge turbines looming over Dublin Bay (below, left).

When I asked him to confirm this image is technically accurate, ie verifed by an engineer, turns out nah, Photoshop quickie.

1 thing about these types of 'articles' everyone in Ireland should know- who paid for them.

m.independent.ie/storyplus/th...

Fact is, Ireland's expert body interpretation of 'climate neutrality' –deeming stabilising at peak ºC sufficient 🇮🇪 action– is directly refuted by their own 'Paris Test' of their own scenario shortlist.
So why say it?
[Livestock interests' preference to do little about methane is not a great reason.]

Listen up Irish government

#SpeirGorm

If you are interested to understand the ins and out of the Climate Change Advisory Council's equity assessment of Ireland's carbon budgets @swimsure.bsky.social and @ejni.bsky.social released a working paper last week that applies a consistent 'Paris Test' across the carbon budgets.

Thanks!

As with previous articles/reports, yours & ours, the open question is whether the CCAC will directly address any of the issues raised: critique of its "climate neutrality" interpretation versus "Paris Test" 1.5ºC fair share, in particular.
A national expert body should be able to to do so.

Attended the premiere of ‘An Irish Atlantic Rainforest’ yesterday, a terrific documentary based on @irishrainforest.bsky.social book of the same name.

It’s visually stunning & gives a tantalising glimpse into just how beautiful Ireland is, what we’ve lost & how it could be again via rewilding.

Episode 4: Professor Conor Murphy

🎙️New podcast out now!

#Flooding and #drought are not opposites. They are symptoms of the same changing climate system. 🌎

Professor Conor Murphy joins us to discuss how #climatechange is intensifying extremes in Ireland.

Link below 👇

open.spotify.com/episode/3rR6...

Climate risk becomes a matter of security The destabilisation of the #AMOC is no longer a distant scenario - it’s a national and global security risk. Iceland’s Climate Minister Jóhann Páll Jóhannsson and I outline actions to tackle this thre...

If you haven't read this yet, pin it to your feed - take it to yr elected representatives. And to others'.

Thanks Johan Rockström & Jóhann Páll Jóhannsson for making this crystal clear to all who must act on it.
#AMOC #tippingpoints @pik-potsdam.bsky.social @euiniceland.bsky.social

bit.ly/4qyIMsZ

Instead, we see media owners and editors do the opposite, confining climate reality to "environment" sections, where the insular focus is increasingly on adaptation, even as the fossil fuel economy their distractions enable roars on.

Cover graphic The cover graphic illustrates a CCAC 2021 Paris Test assessment (GWP* analysis) of three alternative emissions scenarios for Ireland: Current Policies (from EPA data for the With Existing Measures scenario); “Climate Neutrality”, meeting the 2024 CCAC Proposal’s temperature neutrality by 2050 definition; and Scenario 1, the deepest mitigation option within the CCAC Proposal’s 15 scenario Shortlist. According to the CCAC, Scenario 1 is practicable given sufficient effective Government policies and significantly increased sectoral ambition to cut energy, agriculture and land emissions from now onward. Early, deep, and sustained cuts in annual in agri-methane emissions are crucial to net temperature return from overshoot.

Line chart comparing two warming pathways (using GWP* calculation and using FaIR climate model output) for the same mitigation scenario, Scenario 1 in the Climate Change Advisory Council (Ireland) shortlist underpinning its 2031–2040 carbon budget Proposal recommendations. From: Price, Paul R, 2026. Consistent Paris Test assessment of the 2024 Proposal for Ireland’s 2031–2040 carbon budgets. Environmental Justice Network Ireland. Figure 1 shows GWP* (forcing) and FaIR (warming) [overshoot] pathways for Scenario 1’s combined [CO2,N2O,CH4] emissions. As per the CCAC 2021 test definition, the pathways are upscaled to global level by Ireland’s global population share and using a global equal per capita remaining warming to 1.5ºC (based on a 50:50 chance of meeting that limit). • Point (A) is the CCAC’s Uncorrected CCAC 2021 Paris Test forcing threshold for GWP* scenario assessment, as per the 2021 Carbon Budget Technical Report10: maximum upscaled 0.23oC (downscaled 0.15 oC) by the end of 2050. • Point (B) is the Corrected 2021 Paris Test forcing threshold for GWP* scenario assessment, adjusted as per quantitative adjustments A–C in the McMullin et al. 2024 journal paper [16]. Scenario 1 almost exactly meets this GWP* test in 2050. • Point (C) is the FaIR warming value at 0.15 ºC for Scenario 1, corresponding to point (B). As Scenario 1 meets the GWP* forcing test in 2050, (C), an upscaled 0.15 ºC (downscaled, equivalent to 0.10 mºC) can therefore be used to approximate a 2021 Paris Test warming threshold test for FaIR scenario pathways. This gives a 2089 time horizon for the 0.15oC Corrected 2021 Paris Test. • Point (D), 0.23 ºC at end of 2100, separately indicates the Letter’s “Paris Test” of warming contribution. However, this test horizon does not consistently relate to the 2021 Paris Test definition, using a 2050 time horizon, and does not acknowledge the journal paper corrections reducing the 0.23 ºC temperature commitment to 0.15 ºC.

So, v rapid cuts in fossil fuel use (CO2&CH4) AND deep cuts in intensive animal agriculture (CH4&N2O) are crucial to limit overshoot & enable early return from it.
Analysis of Ireland's carbon budgeting shows this.
Substantial, early cut in CH4/yr greatly cuts CDR "need".
ejni.net/publications...

Source: IEA, IIASA, Ember analysis • This is a ternary chart showing the relative contribution of three aggregated energy carriers – fossil, bio & other, and electrons – that sum to total final energy. 'Bio & other' refers to biomass and other energy such as heat.

New analysis by @ember-energy.org showcases the transition from fossil fuel to clean energy being fast tracked in India compared to China and the Global North. This transition in the developing world will play a big role in determining our GHG emissions pathway in the 21st century.

Statement by President Connolly following strikes on Iran

president.ie/en/media-lib...

Sad to see the once-great USA undergoing civilizational erasure.

Pod of this week’s Last Word on the environment with Matt Cooper on Today FM now available.

We discussed proposals to buy out homes in flood zones, plummeting Irish frog populations and wacky anti-solar protests in Galway.

www.todayfm.com/podcasts/the...

Dirty Business Shocking real-life drama about the muck in our water and a corporate scandal

Dirty Business on Channel 4 is an extraordinary demonstration of deregulation and democratic erosion in practice - for over 20+ years.

www.channel4.com/programmes/d...

'The “simplification agenda” isn’t about efficiency — it’s about deregulation and democratic erosion.
It weakens our rights, blocks access to justice and lets a few people profit, while society and our environment pay the price.'

So, any other news yesterday?
Anything important?

Biofuels are another driver. Corn, soy, canola, and sugarcane all are being increasingly used to power vehicles instead of people.

This is a shockingly inefficient use of land; EVs can go *300x* farther powered by a hectare of solar panels vs a hectare of crops! 10/

When pasture and crops used for feed are added together, livestock production is the single biggest replacement of non-forest ecosystems globally. In other words: Meat and dairy simply cannot be ignored in efforts to rein in agricultural expansion and protect natural ecosystems. 9/

The British-Irish Parliamentary Assembly (BIPA) Committee on Climate, Energy, Science and Technology is currently considering the "Role of nuclear power in long-term energy security": www.britishirish.org/british-and-... [Short 🧵]

"decarbonization represents a distinct challenge for capitalist states:
–cross-sectoral coordination at speed
–management of industrial decline alongside promotion
–governance of highly mobile global capital
–legitimacy amid intensified distributive conflict
–decision-making under deep uncertainty"

Government failing to consider how key policies are damaging climate, says UN expert Plans for LNG, Dublin Airport passenger cap and data-centre expansion ‘need scrutiny’

“A worrying narrative was developing in Government and business circles in which environmental defenders were “stigmatised”.

UN special rapporteur slams Ireland’s eco backsliding on airport expansion, nitrates derogation & demonising of environmental defenders.

www.irishtimes.com/environment/...