Black unemployment rose to 7.7% in Feb from 7.3% in Jan. Similarly, Asian unemp rose to 4.8% from 4.2% and Hispanic/Latino unemp rose to 5.2% from 4.9%.
*Usual caveats apply about small monthly sample sizes
9/
For prime-age (25–54) workers, labor force participation and employment-population ratio both dropped just a tick but remain near recent peaks.
8/
Population control updates revised down population, labor force and employment levels (unsurprisingly, due to significantly lower net migration) but left the unemployment rate mostly unchanged.
7/
The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4% in February from 4.3% in January.
Still holding fairly steady despite fears of an increase post-2025 government shutdown.
6/
Average hourly earnings grew 3.8% year-over-year in February, up from 3.7% in January. Recent wage growth is a little weaker with the 3-month annualized change at 3.5% as of February.
5/
have you been having issues with grabbing the flat files the last 2 months as soon as the report drops? I had to rewrite my code so not sure if it's just a me issue
Jobs growth spike in January followed by sudden drop in February + govt shutdowns + severe winter weather make it hard which trends to believe & hard to know whether to believe jobs growth is firming, flattening or falling.
4/
Health care lost 28,000 jobs, in part due to the Kaiser Permanente strike in Feb (-31,000). Those workers will return to payrolls in the March report.
The health care jobs growth ex strike was still very slow though, concerning given the industry has powered jobs growth for the last few yrs.
3/
Payroll employment shrank by 92,000 in February and December 2025 was revised downward to a job loss.
Hadn't noticed until looking at the chart, but we've flip-flopped every month between job gains and losses since May 2025.
2/
BLS #jobsreport flip flops to large job loss in Feb after Jan surge:
-Payroll employment shrank 92k, much worse than expected
-Dec revised down from +48k to -17k, Jan from +130k to +126k
-Unemp ticks back up to 4.4% from 4.3% in Jan
1/
Block to lay off almost half of its workforce (>4,000 workers). Dorsey says business is doing well, but AI is "enabling a new way of working"
www.cnbc.com/2026/02/26/b...
Initial unemployment insurance claims ticked up to 212,000 from 208,000, though remain relatively low compared to recent weeks & previous years.
Continuing claims down to 1,833,000 from 1,864,000, similarly roughly flat vs. year ago
Hutchins Fiscal Impact Measure: Local, state & federal fiscal policy shaved 1 pct pt from GDP growth in Q4. We expect it will be *add* 2.6 pts in Q1 as effects of shutdown are reversed, will be roughly neutral for rest of year. www.brookings.edu/articles/hut... via @brookings.edu
there was a lotta chatter yesterday about the paid emergency snow shovelers recruited to clear out NYC as it was hit with the worst blizzard in a decade. but what's it actually like to crack the ice on behalf of the city? I spoke with an emergency shoveler to find out: slate.com/business/202...
@budgetlab.bsky.social out with an analysis of impacts of this morning's tariff ruling (assuming tariffs aren't replaced under a diff authority):
Remaining tariffs are still large. Slight increase in unemp. (+0.3pp) thru 2026. No expected impact to 2026 GDP.
budgetlab.yale.edu/research/sta...
ROBERTS, C. J., announced the judgment of the Court and delivered the opinion of the Court with respect to Parts I, II–A–1, and II–B, in which SOTOMAYOR, KAGAN, GORSUCH, BARRETT, and JACKSON, JJ., joined, and an opinion with respect to Parts II–A–2 and III, in which GORSUCH and BARRETT, JJ., joined. GORSUCH, J., and BARRETT, J., filed concurring opinions. KAGAN, J., filed an opinion concurring in part and concurring in the judgment, in which SOTOMAYOR and JACKSON, JJ., joined. JACKSON, J., filed an opinion concurring in part and concurring in the judgment. THOMAS, J., filed a dissenting opinion. KAVANAUGH, J., filed a dissenting opinion, in which THOMAS and ALITO, JJ., joined.
Why we had to wait so long for the fucking tariffs opinion.
www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25p...
*TRUMP’S GLOBAL TARIFFS STRUCK DOWN BY US SUPREME COURT
The BEA shutdown impact calculation is basically based on subtracting from government spending the pay furloughed workers would have received. Because those workers received back pay, the 1 pp decline in GDP attributed to the government shutdown will be made up in Q1, so expect a rebound.
My ‘some things will get worse some will get better; I don’t know the future, neither do you’ attitude is not bringing me the platform I deserve
hmm I may or may not have the exact same problem... 😅
Also I have had the same gripes w/ trying to merge datasets together in ChatGPT (either in browser or via API) so I'm very curious to try it in Claude Code now.
Nice post. I'm just starting to use Claude Code and my experience has been similar though the gains are not as large, perhaps bc I'm still new to it.
I do want to use it to help make my legacy code cleaner & more robust, which may not necessarily show up as short-run productivity gains.
The Onion is doing jobs report content too 😅
Old but still feels timely today...
theonion.com/report-emplo...
Initial unemployment insurance claims fell to 206,000 last week from 229,000. Continuing claims rose to 1,869,000 from 1,852,000.
Modest uptick in continuing claims, leaving it more in line with same period last year rather than suggesting marked improvement vs. 2025.
Had missed this Dallas Fed look at shifts in unauthorized employment. It suggests that the current breakeven rate for jobs growth is *negative* 10k. IOW today 40k monthly jobs is equivalent (roughly) to a 150k+ print in the late 2010s.
Speech by Governor Barr on artificial intelligence and the labor market: www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
Learn more about Governor Barr: www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/...
The Fed's using AI tools and seeing quantifiable economic gains.
alas, active-duty military are not in scope for JOLTS
But on a % basis, you do see diffs in which occupations are more impacted:
-Construction, production, transportation do worse in 2009 -Healthcare fares better in 2024
-% drop in office & admin is about the same, but worse in 2024 relative to other occupations
Was working on a piece on this that I never finished:
Stepping up to Employment Services to compare vs. 2008 cycle (hope Erika doesn't get mad at me for comparing OEWS across time), 2022-4 drops are still driven by the largest 3 occupation groups (transportation, production, office & admin).
