We often think of transportation infrastructure as a key driver of economic growth. And that’s true. But it also has a big environmental footprint -- one that’s often underestimated.
Synthetic Control Method be like
We wrote a short summary for @voxdev.bsky.social here 👉 voxdev.org/topic/energy...
The full paper is now out in the Journal of Development Economics 👉 www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
This kind of evidence matters. If we care about protecting the Amazon while supporting development, we need better tools to measure the real impacts of infrastructure -- and design smarter policies.
The big takeaway? It’s not just about what happens near the road/railroad/port itself. The deforestation footprint is spatially complex, spreading in ways that standard impact assessments often miss.
In our new paper, just published in the Journal of Development Economics -- with the brilliant Juliano Assunção and @arthurbraganca7.bsky.social -- we look at how roads, railroads, and waterways affect deforestation in the Amazon.
We often think of transportation infrastructure as a key driver of economic growth. And that’s true. But it also has a big environmental footprint -- one that’s often underestimated.
My pleasure! Thank you, @araujocrrafael.bsky.social, @franciscocosta.bsky.social, and Sant'Anna, for responding carefully, and ConGrat with an important publication @reveconstudies.bsky.social
Our paper on Amazon deforestation is out! Grateful to everyone who helped along the way. I'd like to highlight one thing that made a huge difference: clear and thoughtful guidance from the editor.
Just a few days left to apply to this 3-year postdoc position in environmental economics at @vusbe.bsky.social to work with me on the economics of water management (drought, contract design, nature based solutions, experiments, etc). Application deadline: May 15.
workingat.vu.nl/vacancies/po...
🧵New survey paper: "Inference with Few Treated Units"
Luis Alvarez, Bruno Ferman and Kaspar Wüthrich
Tired of referees saying your standard errors are wrong?
This survey will help you understand if you really have a problem — and, if so, how to fix it!
🚨New Working Paper🚨 "Potato Potahto in the FAO-GAEZ Productivity Measures? Nonclassical Measurement Error with Multiple Proxies" w/ @vitorpossebom.bsky.social
Link: arxiv.org/abs/2502.12141
We highlight that our proposed methodology can be used in many empirical contexts. To employ our partial identification strategy, we only require an exogenous mismeasured treatment variable and two exogenous proxies.
However, our method reaches very different conclusions when compared to the findings of Nunn and Qian (2011) and Acharya et al. (2016). In particular, we find that the impact of agricultural productivity may be smaller than previously reported.
To illustrate our methodology, we reevaluate the results of three empirical studies: Nunn and Qian (2011), Bustos et al. (2016) and Acharya et al. (2016).
We find that the results by Bustos et al. (2016) are robust to measurement error.
We derive bounds around the true linear effect of crop productivity on the outcome of interest. These bounds exhaust all the information contained in the first two moments of the data distribution and have intuitive closed-form solutions.
We propose to partially identify the effect of crop productivity in a linear model with two proxies that are subject to nonclassical measurement error.
We impose that the true unobservable productivity is exogenous and that its effect on the outcome is non-negative.
There are two images here, on the left it shows a map of Brazil with the difference between versions 3 and 4 of FAO-GAEZ data for soybeans. On the right it shows a scatter plot of the data.
There are two images here, on the left it shows a map of the South of the US with the difference between versions 3 and 4 of FAO-GAEZ data for cotton. On the right it shows a scatter plot of the data.
There are two images here, on the left it shows a map of the Old World with the difference between versions 3 and 4 of FAO-GAEZ data for potato. On the right it shows a scatter plot of the data.
We document the possibility of measurement error in the GAEZ variables. Their versions differ with respect to calibrated parameters and sources of data. These differences cause large changes in productivity for many crops and regions, suggesting the existence of mismeasurement.
Measurement error in the FAO-GAEZ data is rarely recognized in the empirical literature and is not properly addressed by current statistical methods. We propose a novel method that partially identifies the effect of crop productivity while accounting for measurement error.
this is a picture of the abstract of the paper. The FAO-GAEZ crop productivity data are widely used in Economics. However, the existence of measurement error is rarely recognized in the empirical literature. We propose a novel method to partially identify the effect of agricultural productivity, deriving bounds that allow for nonclassical measurement error by leveraging two proxies. These bounds exhaust all the information contained in the first two moments of the data. We reevaluate three influential studies, documenting that measurement error matters and that the impact of agricultural productivity on economic outcomes may be smaller than previously reported. Our methodology has broad applications in empirical research involving mismeasured variables.
The impact of crop productivity on economic outcomes is important in many fields. The most common measure of crop productivity is the FAO-GAEZ measure. However, this measure is based on a prediction model and is subject to measurement error.
🚨New Working Paper🚨 "Potato Potahto in the FAO-GAEZ Productivity Measures? Nonclassical Measurement Error with Multiple Proxies" w/ @vitorpossebom.bsky.social
Link: arxiv.org/abs/2502.12141
I've decided to collect my DiD materials in a single place.
psantanna.com/did-resources
There, you will find
- 14 lectures of my comprehensive DiD course
- Shorter lectures/talks I have given on DiD
- My DiD R/Stata/Python packages
- Some DiD checklists
- DiD materials from my friends
Enjoy!
I am thinking of making my DiD materials that I used for teaching in the last 5 years available.
I am hoping these would find begineers in need of a step-by-step opinionated walkthrough of several developments
Let’s see if I find the energy to do this!
The figure shows a massive rainfall event over the Amazon Rainforest. The picture, in black and white, highlights the composition of the clouds, the rainfall, and the forest.
After many iterations my paper on endogenous climate in deforestation modeling is reborn!
(an amazing photo from the one and only Sebastião Salgado:)
#econsky
Since I haven't seen it posted on BlueSky yet: check the report by the "Global Commission on the Economics of Water". I like it quite a bit.
economicsofwater.watercommission.org
#econsky
1/3
Thanks, Manuel!!
What a paper! Interdisciplinary env econ research at its best.
Rafa’s work has some of my favorite examples of serious economic theory + relevant policy question + super cool data. check it out!
