"In this way, prediction markets are a system that justifies its own existence—a well-oiled machine chipping away at societal trust while offering a convenient solution to its own problem"
Wrote about the central lie of prediction markets. How they are the perfect technology for a low-trust society, simultaneously exploiting and reifying an environment in which believing the motives behind any person or action becomes harder. www.theatlantic.com/technology/2...
‘This is the central lie of prediction markets: They claim to get us closer to the truth but, in the end, they make us less certain about the world.’
By @cwarzel.bsky.social
there are plenty of moral/ethical reasons to not like prediction markets but the thing that's most interesting to me is the way that they are a machine that destroys trust. by democratizing insider trading everyone assumes the fix is always in. it's corrosive! www.theatlantic.com/technology/2...
What I found interesting is that Kalshi was like...yeah no the insider trading thing could kill us. And yet!
This is the central lie of prediction markets: They claim to get us closer to the truth but, in the end, they make us less certain about the world. But this erosion of trust is a feature, not a bug, for these platforms. A world where people are suspicious of every motive is a world where the cold logic of gambling feels more rational. A zero-trust society is one where the prediction markets’ dubious “wisdom of crowds” marketing seems extra appealing. In this way, prediction markets are a system that justifies its own existence—a well-oiled machine chipping away at societal trust while offering a convenient solution to its own problem. The prediction markets have done what any savvy trader or firm might—they’ve hedged their bets. The house can’t lose.
One of the reasons prediction markets have these news feeds, tweet like newsrooms, & market themselves as getting 'closer to the truth' is that they're trying to exploit a low trust moment. But the markets w/ their insider trading also contribute to everyone assuming the fix is in. self-fulfilling
Wrote about the central lie of prediction markets. How they are the perfect technology for a low-trust society, simultaneously exploiting and reifying an environment in which believing the motives behind any person or action becomes harder. www.theatlantic.com/technology/2...
have not!
OH SHIT
gonna need a 4 part documentary on the Tucker Carlson nicotine pouch heist www.tmz.com/2026/03/04/t...
we are efforting him
(would be a follow on this great ep we did in December) youtu.be/76kF5J-7avs?...
hivemind: if you could listen to me interview one human being about prediction market madness rn ...who would that person be?
hell yeah!
holy shit! i need specs
send a link!
easily. but i’m already insane from
internet. let me at least not need to switch 40 tabs
king!
this is something id like pay a concierge for: just order me this $ amt of screen rig haha
i do not have any interest in working in finance but my main takeaway from binge watching Industry the last few weeks is that I desperately crave the trading desk rig. 40 monitors, graphs everywhere, headset, an intercom switcher thing...a microphone that pops out of nowhere. i want it all. give
that's an old one that resolved in 2025. which isn't to say that it doesn't make the point...but i don't see the one where the market is at 5% for march, etc
i love 'how people work' stuff. especially love seeing how people who do what i do (or similar) do what they do. jamelle is so thoughtful and its really fun to get that insight into his process
i can't find this on the actual site...do you have a link?
whatever gets the piece over the finish line!
this slack message is a pretty good depiction of what it is like to work with me
awareing ourselves to death is really good im jealous
i think you have the wrong charlie!!
?
so sorry for your loss!
❤️❤️
