@profpaulbehrens
Prof at Oxford Martin School working on food, energy, and climate change. Book: The Best of Times The Worst of Times: Futures from the Frontiers of Climate Science http://shorturl.at/lzCTZ #ClimateChange #ClimateAction
The UK could at least evaluate strategic food and fertiliser reserves alongside wider resilience measures.
The question, as always, is who shoulders the short‑term cost of paying for it because when the shock comes the extra buffer can be priceless.
There is growing recognition that food security is national security, but the pace of practical action feels slow compared with peer nations. Finland, Sweden, Germany and others have begun to build or expand strategic food reserves.
In all, this crisis again exposes how the UK food system is simultaneously dependent on imported gas, imported fertiliser and imported food. And how firmly we still assume that global markets will always deliver.
- This spike is landing on top of spring sowing and the price increases are starting to pass-through to farmers who didn't pay for forward contracts or bought early.
- So even though the UK imports relatively little food from the Gulf states, we are tightly coupled to events there through energy, fertiliser, and freight. Food inflation could edge up if the disruption continues (no signs of it stopping).
- UK Government reports highlight how, with such high imports, single points of failure are a systemic resilience risk (Hormuz is textbook and one highlighted by many reports and groups).
- The UK imports around 60% of its fertiliser needs after closures of fertiliser plants in the country (largely due to high energy prices... bring on the energy transition!).
- This is a problem with the de facto closing of the Strait and several facilities that have shut down due to nearby drone attacks in the last week.
- Prices for Egyptian urea are up >25% over the last week.
- So it might not be surprising that a quarter to a third of globally traded fertiliser nutrients and feedstocks move through the Strait (for some nutrients it's even higher, like Sulphur which is a byproduct of the energy system, at around 50%).
- Fertiliser is really a way of converting energy into food via the Haber-Bosch process and the Gulf region has a huge amount of fertiliser production (around 2% of all global energy goes into fertiliser!).
The US-Iran war and the closure of the 33-km wide Strait of Hormuz is a big energy issue but it's also a big food issue, too. 🧵
www.theguardian.com/business/202...
This is just a taste of what @profpaulbehrens.bsky.social warned about at the National Emergency Briefing 👇.
It’s time for the Government to brief the nation and take emergency action to avoid serious prolonged food shortages.
Has your MP signed yet?
www.nebriefing.org/parliamentar...
🚨 The UK government has recognised nature collapse is a national security risk.
🌿 But collective action can restore hope for climate and nature.
🤝 Meet with your MP—ask what emergency action they’re taking and how they support the Climate and Nature Bill.
👉 action.zerohour.uk/meeting #CANBill
Please support the call for a televised National Emergency Briefing (www.nebriefing.org/parliamentar...) and consider donating to the crowdfunder if you can (www.crowdfunder.co.uk/p/the-people...).
Much like the @nebriefing.bsky.social last year, there is a relief that the truth is being communicated. In this case by the national security apparatus.
But we need a lot more truth-telling, to a lot more people.
Last week's intelligence briefing correctly reframes these crises as direct and present threats to UK national security, economic stability, and national food systems.
For a very long time, climate and biodiversity crises have been framed by decision makers as issues that are important to fix, but ultimately non-urgent and changes to which we can adapt.
4) adoption of the National Preparedness Commission's recommendations in the 'just-in-case' report.
I suggest four changes that are urgently needed: 1) dietary shifts, 2) support for horticultural development, for legumes, for farmers in nature restoration, and for technologies for precision fermentation, 3) targeted overseas investment in critical regions,
I wrote an op-ed for the @bmj.com on the UK government's national security assessment on ecosystem collapse and how we need act.
This report was released last week, delayed by months—allegedly it was seen as too negative by number 10—and abridged🧵
www.bmj.com/content/392/...
Ah, odd, it works for me. You tried the blue link?
"The UK does not have enough land to feed its population and rear livestock: a wholesale change in consumer diets would be required." re: the challenge of food security under nature collapse.
from a UK govt national security assessment out today…
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/696e0e...
At the National Emergency Briefing
@newscientist.com had a chat with our food expert
@profpaulbehrens.bsky.social
who highlighted how badly we underestimate how stongly other people support climate action.
We will be tackling this head on with the People's Emergency Briefing.
#netzero
UPDATED – Factcheck: How ‘scary-sounding numbers’ are being used to mislead the UK about net-zero | @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org
Read here: buff.ly/Be7nHfA
There’s no get-out-of-environmental-jail free card with beef. The climate case for grass-fed simply doesn’t hold up. The question isn’t which beef is best but how much we actually need to eat. [end]
@taragarnett.bsky.social made the crucial point: the real gains won't come from converting people to veganism, but from many people cutting back on overconsuming meat.
The good news that cutting back would save lives from poor health.
A critical issue that many people overlook is that land is not free. I pointed out that land used for grass-fed beef overwhelmingly has far better alternative uses, from crops grown to directly feed humans, to restoring ecosystems.
This is shown elegantly from work by @gidoneshel.bsky.social, @ronmilo.bsky.social, Ali Flamholz, and Alon Shepon work that finds grass-fed beef operations create at least 10% more emissions than U.S. industrial beef per kg of protein. www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
Pete Smith pointed out that while there may be other reasons you might prefer grass-fed beef, climate change is not one of them “it actually comes out no better – in fact, it's a little worse”
No, grass-fed beef isn’t better for the climate. Several of us spoke with @sachimulkey.bsky.social at the New York Times about the confusion. 🧵
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/12/c...
