Owen Winter

Seems like an own goal for the Tories and Reform to loudly take such an unpopular position

Given how voters usually respond instinctively negatively towards anything Starmer does, these seem like pretty good numbers for him

The effect exists after controlling for age (and education, ethnicity, gender)

Thanks Chris!

nope, colour blindness is usually about hue

Best I could manage in ggplot 😂

Interesting idea. Might work for bigger digital charts but our print ones are quite space-constrained

Ah, it's just England. Will correct

having green (Green) and red (Labour) lines next to each other wouldn't be great for colourblind readers

Yep www.economist.com/britain/2025...

yep but the narrative lags behind reality, I think. We spent the 2010s agonising about the industrial working class who lost status from the 1980s to 2000s

That speaks to the first axis of British politics (left/right). Old people are just much more right-wing (but Reform are relatively younger than the Conservatives)

This is a very good thread. We can perhaps quibble over self reports, but "average economic growth in the years you've been alive" is a very telling metric

Nope, it cuts across education. Green voters are much more likely to have a degree than Reform voters, but both are more financially insecure

Britain’s class politics is back—with a Green twist Britain's populist parties Reform UK and the Greens gain support among economically insecure voters, challenging Labour and Conservative dominance in British politics.

Voters can hardly be blamed for zero-sum thinking when economic growth increasingly appears to be like a mythical creature www.economist.com/britain/2026...

Chart showing lifetime average GDP growth for Brits by year of birth. 20-year-old Brits have experienced an average of 1.4% growth, compared with 2.4% for 75-year-olds

Part of the issue is a lack of growth. A recent study showed that cohorts who experience more GDP growth in their lifetimes are more likely to trust the government and have positive perceptions of their living standards. academic.oup.com/qje/advance-... In Britain, such voters are dying out

The obvious solution would appear to be redistribution. But voters haven't rewarded Labour for rental reforms, minimum wage rises and more generous welfare spending. The voters who Labour's policies most benefit appear to be the ones leaving the party fastest

At the same time, home ownership is increasingly out of reach. Youth unemployment is at the highest point for a decade (excl a moment at peak lockdown). Young people fear AI replacing white collar jobs. Polanski took over at the moment of greatest anxiety for his party's prospective voters

Chart showing real median salaries by graduate status. Postgrads have declined 17%, grads 12% and non-grads by 3%

Since 2007, real median postgrad salaries have declined by 17% and 12% for undergrads (*before* accounting for student loans!). The narrative of the 2010s was dominated by the status-loss of industrial workers, the 2020s might be the decade of disappointed grads

The Greens are a more recent phenomenon. Partly this is about Zack Polanski, who has shaken off the party's middle class reputation. But it's also result of structural factors.

This story is familiar when it comes to Reform. Political scientists have discussed economic anxiety, globalisation and right-populism since the 2010s. Many of Reform's voters come from former industrial areas that have declined since the 1980s

Green and Reform voters are substantially more financially insecure than Labour/Lib Dems or Conservatives, respectively. They are less likely to own their homes. They are more likely to say political institutions should "burn" and more likely to take a zero-sum view of politics.

Digging in to polling data from @moreincommonuk.bsky.social, it's clear that Britain is split along two axes. Age, education, gender and ethnicity determine whether voters fall in the broad left or right "blocs". But within each bloc, voters are divided by their affluence

Polling from More in Common shows that Greens and Reform win a higher share of voters who struggle to make ends meet, while Labour and the Conservatives win those who are most financially comfortable

Reform UK and the Greens are hoovering up financially insecure voters. My piece this week looks at the return of Britain's class politics (with a twist) www.economist.com/britain/2026...

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Wisconsin -13
Georgia -14

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A 95% interval would make the "other race" category quite unclear

yep, annoying! we got lucky with this one last year

87% after (too few answered before to say if his approval went up or down)